Dataset Information

A 15-Year Warranty Period for Asymptomatic Individuals Without Coronary Artery Calcium: A Prospective Follow-Up of 9,715 Individuals.

ABSTRACT: The aim of this study was to examine the long-term prognosis in asymptomatic individuals with a coronary artery calcium (CAC) score of 0 and its associated warranty period.Emerging evidence supports a CAC score of 0 as a favorable cardiovascular short-to intermediate-term prognostic factor.A total of 9,715 individuals undergoing CAC imaging were stratified by age, Framingham risk score (FRS), and National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) categories and followed for a mean of 14.6 years (range 12.9 to 16.8 years). Cox regression, area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, and net reclassification information were used to assess all-cause mortality, discrimination, and reclassification of a CAC score of 0 compared with the FRS and NCEP ATP III, respectively. A warranty period was pre-defined as <1% annual mortality rate. Vascular age was estimated by linear regression.In 4,864 individuals with a baseline CAC score of 0 (mean age, 52.1 ± 10.8 years; 57.9% male), 229 deaths occurred. The warranty period of a CAC score of 0 was almost 15 years for individuals at low and intermediate risk with no significant differences regarding age and sex. A CAC score of 0 was associated with a vascular age of 1, 10, 20, and 30 years less than the chronological age of individuals between 50 and 59, 60 and 69, 70 and 79, and 80 years of age and older, respectively. The CAC score was the strongest predictor of death (hazard ratio: 2.67, 95% confidence interval: 2.29 to 3.11) that enabled discrimination and consistent reclassification beyond the FRS (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve: 0.71 vs. 0.64, p < 0.001) and NCEP ATP III (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve: 0.72 vs. 0.64, p < 0.001).A CAC score of 0 confers a 15-year warranty period against mortality in individuals at low to intermediate risk that is unaffected by age or sex. Furthermore, in individuals considered at high risk by clinical risk scores, a CAC score of 0 confers better survival than in individuals at low to intermediate risk but with any CAC score.

SUBMITTER: Valenti V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4537357 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A 15-Year Warranty Period for Asymptomatic Individuals Without Coronary Artery Calcium: A Prospective Follow-Up of 9,715 Individuals.

Valenti Valentina V Ó Hartaigh Bríain B Heo Ran R Cho Iksung I Schulman-Marcus Joshua J Gransar Heidi H Truong Quynh A QA Shaw Leslee J LJ Knapper Joseph J Kelkar Anita A AA Sandesara Pratik P Lin Fay Y FY Sciarretta Sebastiano S Chang Hyuk-Jae HJ Callister Tracy Q TQ Min James K JK

JACC. Cardiovascular imaging 20150715 8

<h4>Objectives</h4>The aim of this study was to examine the long-term prognosis in asymptomatic individuals with a coronary artery calcium (CAC) score of 0 and its associated warranty period.<h4>Background</h4>Emerging evidence supports a CAC score of 0 as a favorable cardiovascular short-to intermediate-term prognostic factor.<h4>Methods</h4>A total of 9,715 individuals undergoing CAC imaging were stratified by age, Framingham risk score (FRS), and National Cholesterol Education Program Adult T ...[more]

PMID: 26189116

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Project description:ObjectivesThis study sought to quantify and model conversion of a normal coronary artery calcium (CAC) scan to an abnormal CAC scan.BackgroundAlthough the absence of CAC is associated with excellent prognosis, progression to CAC >0 confers increased risk. The time interval for repeated scanning remains poorly defined.MethodsThis study included 3,116 participants from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) with baseline CAC = 0 and follow-up scans over 10 years after baseline. Prevalence of incident CAC, defined by thresholds of CAC >0, CAC >10, or CAC >100, was calculated and time to progression was derived from a Weibull parametric survival model. Warranty periods were modeled as a function of sex, race/ethnicity, cardiovascular risk, and desired yield of repeated CAC testing. Further analysis was performed of the proportion of coronary events occurring in participants with baseline CAC = 0 that preceded and followed repeated CAC testing at different time intervals.ResultsMean participants' age was 58 ± 9 years, with 63% women, and mean 10-year cardiovascular risk of 14%. Prevalence of CAC >0, CAC >10, and CAC >100 was 53%, 36%, and 8%, respectively, at 10 years. Using a 25% testing yield (number needed to scan [NNS] = 4), the estimated warranty period of CAC >0 varied from 3 to 7 years depending on sex and race/ethnicity. Approximately 15% of participants progressed to CAC >10 in 5 to 8 years, whereas 10-year progression to CAC >100 was rare. Presence of diabetes was associated with significantly shorter warranty period, whereas family history and smoking had small effects. A total of 19% of all 10-year coronary events occurred in CAC = 0 prior to performance of a subsequent scan at 3 to 5 years, whereas detection of new CAC >0 preceded 55% of future events and identified individuals at 3-fold higher risk of coronary events.ConclusionsIn a large population of individuals with baseline CAC = 0, study data provide a robust estimation of the CAC = 0 warranty period, considering progression to CAC >0, CAC >10, and CAC >100 and its impact on missed versus detectable 10-year coronary heart disease events. Beyond age, sex, race/ethnicity, diabetes also has a significant impact on the warranty period. The study suggests that evidence-based guidance would be to consider rescanning in 3 to 7 years depending on individual demographics and risk profile.

Project description:The potential relationship between coronary artery calcium (CAC) and colorectal adenoma has been widely indicated. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the risk of colorectal adenoma and CAC progression in asymptomatic Korean adults who underwent serial assessments by colonoscopy and CAC scan.A total of 754 asymptomatic participants, who had undergone serial CAC scans and colonoscopies for screening, were enrolled. Changes in CAC were assessed according to the absolute change between baseline and follow-up results. CAC progression was defined using Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis method. Risk for adenoma at follow-up colonoscopy was determined using hazard ratio (HR) by Cox regression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was measured.The mean follow-up duration was 3.4 ± 2.5 years. CAC progression was found in 215 participants (28.5%). Participants with adenoma at index colonoscopy showed a higher rate of CAC progression than those without (38.8% vs 23.6%, P < .01). In participants with adenoma at index colonoscopy, CAC progression significantly increased the cumulative risk for adenoma at follow-up colonoscopy (HR = 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-2.06, log-rank P = .021). In multivariate analysis, male sex (HR = 2.57, 95% CI 1.22-5.42, P = .013), ≥3 adenomas at index colonoscopy (HR = 2.60, 95% CI 1.16-5.85, P = .021), and CAC progression (HR = 2.74, 95% CI 1.48-5.08, P = .001) increased the risk of adenoma at follow-up colonoscopy. In participants without adenoma at index colonoscopy, neither baseline CAC presence nor CAC progression increased the risk of adenoma at follow-up colonoscopy. The interaction between CAC progression and adenoma at index colonoscopy was significant in multivariable model (P = .005). In the ROC analysis, AUC of CAC progression for adenoma at follow-up colonoscopy was 0.625 (95% CI 0.567-0.684, P < .001) in participants with adenoma at index colonoscopy.Participants with CAC progression, who are at high risk of coronary atherosclerosis, may need to be considered for follow-up evaluation of colorectal adenoma, especially those with adenoma at index colonoscopy.

Project description:ImportanceClinical and economic consequences of statin treatment guidelines supplemented by targeted coronary artery calcium (CAC) assessment have not been evaluated in African American individuals, who are at increased risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and less likely than non-African American individuals to receive statin therapy.ObjectiveTo evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guideline without a recommendation for CAC assessment vs the 2018 ACC/AHA guideline recommendation for use of a non-0 CAC score measured on one occasion to target generic-formulation, moderate-intensity statin treatment in African American individuals at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.Design, setting, and participantsA microsimulation model was designed to estimate life expectancy, quality of life, costs, and health outcomes over a lifetime horizon. African American-specific data from 472 participants in the Jackson Heart Study (JHS) at intermediate risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and other US population-specific data on individuals from published sources were used. Data analysis was conducted from November 11, 2018, to November 1, 2019.Main outcomes and measuresLifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), discounted at 3% annually.ResultsIn a model-based economic evaluation informed in part by follow-up data, the analysis was focused on 472 individuals in the JHS at intermediate risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease; mean (SD) age was 63 (6.7) years. The sample included 243 women (51.5%) and 229 men (48.5%). Of these, 178 of 304 participants (58.6%) who underwent CAC assessment had a non-0 CAC score. In the base-case scenario, implementation of 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines without CAC assessment provided a greater quality-adjusted life expectancy (0.0027 QALY) at a higher cost ($428.97) compared with the 2018 ACC/AHA guideline strategy with CAC assessment, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $158 325/QALY, which is considered to represent low-value care by the ACC/AHA definition. The 2018 ACC/AHA guideline strategy with CAC assessment provided greater quality-adjusted life expectancy at a lower cost compared with the 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines without CAC assessment when there was a strong patient preference to avoid use of daily medication therapy. In probability sensitivity analyses, the 2018 ACC/AHA guideline strategy with CAC assessment was cost-effective compared with the 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines without CAC assessment in 76% of simulations at a willingness-to-pay value of $100 000/QALY when there was a preference to lose 2 weeks of perfect health to avoid 1 decade of daily therapy.Conclusions and relevanceA CAC assessment-guided strategy for statin therapy appears to be cost-effective compared with initiating statin therapy in all African American individuals at intermediate risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and may provide greater quality-adjusted life expectancy at a lower cost than a non-CAC assessment-guided strategy when there is a strong patient preference to avoid the need for daily medication. Coronary artery calcium testing may play a role in shared decision-making regarding statin use.

Project description:Purpose: Many patients with ischemic stroke have concomitant coronary artery disease (CAD). However, it remains unclear which stroke patients should undergo evaluation for asymptomatic CAD, and which screening tools are appropriate. We investigated the role of coronary artery calcium (CAC) score as a screening tool for asymptomatic but severe CAD in acute stroke patients. We determined the selection criteria for CAC screening based on risk factors and cerebral atherosclerosis. Materials and Methods: The present study included consecutive patients with acute stroke who had undergone cerebral angiography and multi-detector computed tomography coronary angiography. Severe CAD was defined as left main artery disease or three-vessel disease. Enrolled patients were randomly assigned to two sets; a set for developing selection criteria and a set for validation. To develop selection criteria, we identified associated factors with severe CAD regarding clinical factors and cerebral atherosclerosis. CAD predictability of selection criteria with the CAC score was calculated. Results: Overall, 2,658 patients were included. Severe CAD was present in 360 patients (13.5%). CAC score was associated with CAD severity (P < 0.001). In the development set (N = 1,860), severe CAD was associated with age >65 years [odds ratio (95% confidence interval), 2.62 (1.93-3.55)], male sex (1.81 [1.33-2.46]), dyslipidemia (1.77 [1.25-2.61]), peripheral artery disease (2.64 [1.37-5.06]) and stenosis in the cervicocephalic branches, including the internal carotid (2.79 [2.06-3.78]) and vertebrobasilar arteries (2.08 [1.57-2.76]). We determined the combination of clinical and arterial factors as the selection criteria for CAC evaluation. The cut-off criterion was two or more elements of the selection criteria. The area under the curve (AUC) of the selection criteria was 0.701. The AUC significantly improved to 0.836 when the CAC score was added (P < 0.001). In the validation set (N = 798), the AUC of the selection criteria only was 0.661, and that of the CAC score was 0.833. The AUC of the selection criteria + CAC score significantly improved to 0.861(P < 0.001). Conclusion: The necessity for CAC evaluation could be determined based on the presence of risk factors and significant stenosis of the cervicocephalic arteries. CAC evaluation may be useful for screening for severe CAD in stroke patients.

Dataset Information

A 15-Year Warranty Period for Asymptomatic Individuals Without Coronary Artery Calcium: A Prospective Follow-Up of 9,715 Individuals.

Publications

A 15-Year Warranty Period for Asymptomatic Individuals Without Coronary Artery Calcium: A Prospective Follow-Up of 9,715 Individuals.

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