Dataset Information

Cost-effectiveness of Contemporary Statin Use Guidelines With or Without Coronary Artery Calcium Assessment in African American Individuals.

ABSTRACT:

Importance

Clinical and economic consequences of statin treatment guidelines supplemented by targeted coronary artery calcium (CAC) assessment have not been evaluated in African American individuals, who are at increased risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and less likely than non-African American individuals to receive statin therapy.

Objective

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guideline without a recommendation for CAC assessment vs the 2018 ACC/AHA guideline recommendation for use of a non-0 CAC score measured on one occasion to target generic-formulation, moderate-intensity statin treatment in African American individuals at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

Design, setting, and participants

A microsimulation model was designed to estimate life expectancy, quality of life, costs, and health outcomes over a lifetime horizon. African American-specific data from 472 participants in the Jackson Heart Study (JHS) at intermediate risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and other US population-specific data on individuals from published sources were used. Data analysis was conducted from November 11, 2018, to November 1, 2019.

Main outcomes and measures

Lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), discounted at 3% annually.

Results

In a model-based economic evaluation informed in part by follow-up data, the analysis was focused on 472 individuals in the JHS at intermediate risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease; mean (SD) age was 63 (6.7) years. The sample included 243 women (51.5%) and 229 men (48.5%). Of these, 178 of 304 participants (58.6%) who underwent CAC assessment had a non-0 CAC score. In the base-case scenario, implementation of 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines without CAC assessment provided a greater quality-adjusted life expectancy (0.0027 QALY) at a higher cost ($428.97) compared with the 2018 ACC/AHA guideline strategy with CAC assessment, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $158 325/QALY, which is considered to represent low-value care by the ACC/AHA definition. The 2018 ACC/AHA guideline strategy with CAC assessment provided greater quality-adjusted life expectancy at a lower cost compared with the 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines without CAC assessment when there was a strong patient preference to avoid use of daily medication therapy. In probability sensitivity analyses, the 2018 ACC/AHA guideline strategy with CAC assessment was cost-effective compared with the 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines without CAC assessment in 76% of simulations at a willingness-to-pay value of $100 000/QALY when there was a preference to lose 2 weeks of perfect health to avoid 1 decade of daily therapy.

Conclusions and relevance

A CAC assessment-guided strategy for statin therapy appears to be cost-effective compared with initiating statin therapy in all African American individuals at intermediate risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and may provide greater quality-adjusted life expectancy at a lower cost than a non-CAC assessment-guided strategy when there is a strong patient preference to avoid the need for daily medication. Coronary artery calcium testing may play a role in shared decision-making regarding statin use.

SUBMITTER: Spahillari A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7221863 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Importance:Modern prevention guidelines substantially increase the number of individuals who are eligible for treatment with statins. Efforts to refine statin eligibility via coronary calcification have been studied in white populations but not, to our knowledge, in large African American populations. Objective:To compare the relative accuracy of US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) and American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) recommendations in identifying African American individuals with subclinical and clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Design, Setting, and Participants:In this prospective, community-based study, 2812 African American individuals aged 40 to 75 years without prevalent ASCVD underwent assessment of ASCVD risk. Of these, 1743 participants completed computed tomography. Main Outcomes and Measures:Nonzero coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, abdominal aortic calcium score, and incident ASCVD (ie, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or fatal coronary heart disease). Results:Of the 2812 included participants, the mean (SD) age at baseline was 55.4 (9.4) years, and 1837 (65.3%) were female. The USPSTF guidelines captured 404 of 732 African American individuals (55.2%) with a CAC score greater than 0; the ACC/AHA guidelines identified 507 individuals (69.3%) (risk difference, 14.1%; 95% CI, 11.2-17.0; P?<?.001). Statin recommendation under both guidelines was associated with a CAC score greater than 0 (odds ratio, 5.1; 95% CI, 4.1-6.3; P?<?.001). While individuals indicated for statins under both guidelines experienced 9.6 cardiovascular events per 1000 patient-years, those indicated under only ACC/AHA guidelines were at low to intermediate risk (4.1 events per 1000 patient-years). Among individuals who were statin eligible by ACC/AHA guidelines, the 10-year ASCVD incidence per 1000 person-years was 8.1 (95% CI, 5.9-11.1) in the presence of CAC and 3.1 (95% CI, 1.6-5.9) without CAC (P?=?.02). While statin-eligible individuals by USPSTF guidelines did not have a significantly higher 10-year ASCVD event rate in the presence of CAC, African American individuals not eligible for statins by USPSTF guidelines had a higher ASCVD event rate in the presence of CAC (2.8 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 1.5-5.4) relative to without CAC (0.8 per 1000 person-years; 95%, CI 0.3-1.7) (P?=?.03). Conclusions and Relevance:The USPSTF guidelines focus treatment recommendations on 38% of high-risk African American individuals at the expense of not recommending treatment in nearly 25% of African American individuals eligible for statins by ACC/AHA guidelines with vascular calcification and at low to intermediate ASCVD risk.

Project description:BackgroundIn the general population, the majority of cardiovascular events occur in people at the low to moderate end of population risk distribution. The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline on the treatment of blood cholesterol recommends consideration of statin therapy for adults with an estimated 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk ≥7.5% based on traditional risk factors. Whether use of nontraditional risk markers can improve risk assessment in those below this threshold for statin therapy is unclear.Methods and resultsUsing data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a population sample free of clinical CVD at baseline, we calibrated the Pooled Cohort Equations (cPCE). ASCVD was defined as myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, or fatal or nonfatal stroke. Adults with an initial cPCE <7.5% and elevated levels of additional risk markers (abnormal test) whose new calculated risk was ≥7.5% were considered statin eligible: low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥160 mg/dL; family history of ASCVD; high-sensitivity C-reactive protein ≥2 mg/dL; coronary artery calcium score ≥300 Agatston units or ≥75th percentile for age, sex, and ethnicity; and ankle-brachial index <0.9. We compared the absolute and relative ASCVD risks among those with versus without elevated posttest estimated risk. We calculated the number needed to screen to identify 1 person with abnormal test for each risk marker, defined as the number of participants with baseline cPCE risk <7.5% divided by the number with an abnormal test reclassified as statin eligible. Of 5185 participants not taking statins with complete data (age, 45-84 years), 4185 had a cPCE risk <7.5%. During 10 years of follow-up, 57% of the ASCVD events (183 of 320) occurred among adults with a cPCE risk <7.5%. When people with diabetes mellitus were excluded, the coronary artery calcium criterion reclassified 6.8% upward, with an event rate of 13.3%, absolute risk of 10%, relative risk of 4.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8-5.7), and number needed to screen of 14.7. The corresponding numbers for family history of ASCVD were 4.6%, 15.1%, 12%, 4.3 (95% CI, 3.0-6.4), and 21.8; for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein criteria, 2.6%, 10%, 6%, 2.6 (95% CI, 1.4-4.8), and 39.2; for ankle-brachial index criteria, 0.6%, 9%, 5%, 2.3 (95% CI, 0.6-8.6), and 176.5; and for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol criteria, 0.5%, 5%, 1%, 1.2 (95% CI, 0.2-8.4), and 193.3, respectively. Of the 3882 with <7.5% cPCE risk, 431 (11.1%) were reclassified to ≥7.5% (statin eligible) by at least 1 of the additional risk marker criteria.ConclusionsIn this generally low-risk population sample, a large proportion of ASCVD events occurred among adults with a 10-year cPCE risk <7.5%. We found that the coronary artery calcium score, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, family history of ASCVD, and ankle-brachial index recommendations by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cholesterol guidelines (Class IIB) identify small subgroups of asymptomatic population with a 10-year cPCE risk <7.5% but with observed ASCVD event rates >7.5% who may warrant statin therapy considerations.

Project description:ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to examine the long-term prognosis in asymptomatic individuals with a coronary artery calcium (CAC) score of 0 and its associated warranty period.BackgroundEmerging evidence supports a CAC score of 0 as a favorable cardiovascular short-to intermediate-term prognostic factor.MethodsA total of 9,715 individuals undergoing CAC imaging were stratified by age, Framingham risk score (FRS), and National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) categories and followed for a mean of 14.6 years (range 12.9 to 16.8 years). Cox regression, area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, and net reclassification information were used to assess all-cause mortality, discrimination, and reclassification of a CAC score of 0 compared with the FRS and NCEP ATP III, respectively. A warranty period was pre-defined as <1% annual mortality rate. Vascular age was estimated by linear regression.ResultsIn 4,864 individuals with a baseline CAC score of 0 (mean age, 52.1 ± 10.8 years; 57.9% male), 229 deaths occurred. The warranty period of a CAC score of 0 was almost 15 years for individuals at low and intermediate risk with no significant differences regarding age and sex. A CAC score of 0 was associated with a vascular age of 1, 10, 20, and 30 years less than the chronological age of individuals between 50 and 59, 60 and 69, 70 and 79, and 80 years of age and older, respectively. The CAC score was the strongest predictor of death (hazard ratio: 2.67, 95% confidence interval: 2.29 to 3.11) that enabled discrimination and consistent reclassification beyond the FRS (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve: 0.71 vs. 0.64, p < 0.001) and NCEP ATP III (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve: 0.72 vs. 0.64, p < 0.001).ConclusionsA CAC score of 0 confers a 15-year warranty period against mortality in individuals at low to intermediate risk that is unaffected by age or sex. Furthermore, in individuals considered at high risk by clinical risk scores, a CAC score of 0 confers better survival than in individuals at low to intermediate risk but with any CAC score.