Dataset Information

Validation of the RRE-90 Scale to Predict Stroke Risk after Transient Symptoms with Infarction: A Prospective Cohort Study.

ABSTRACT:

Background and purpose

The risk of stroke after a transient ischemic attack (TIA) for patients with a positive diffusion-weighted image (DWI), i.e., transient symptoms with infarction (TSI), is much higher than for those with a negative DWI. The aim of this study was to validate the predictive value of a web-based recurrence risk estimator (RRE; http://www.nmr.mgh.harvard.edu/RRE/) of TSI.

Methods

Data from the prospective hospital-based TIA database of the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University were analyzed. The RRE and ABCD2 scores were calculated within 7 days of symptom onset. The predictive outcome was ischemic stroke occurrence at 90 days. The receiver-operating characteristics curves were plotted, and the predictive value of the two models was assessed by computing the C statistics.

Results

A total of 221 eligible patients were prospectively enrolled, of whom 46 (20.81%) experienced a stroke within 90 days. The 90-day stroke risk in high-risk TSI patients (RRE ?4) was 3.406-fold greater than in those at low risk (P <0.001). The C statistic of RRE (0.681; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.592-0.771) was statistically higher than that of ABCD2 score (0.546; 95% CI, 0.454-0.638; Z = 2.115; P = 0.0344) at 90 days.

Conclusion

The RRE score had a higher predictive value than the ABCD2 score for assessing the 90-day risk of stroke after TSI.

SUBMITTER: Song B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4579076 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Validation of the RRE-90 Scale to Predict Stroke Risk after Transient Symptoms with Infarction: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Song Bo B Pei Lulu L Fang Hui H Zhao Lu L Gao Yuan Y Wang Yuanyuan Y Tan Song S Xu Yuming Y

PloS one 20150922 9

<h4>Background and purpose</h4>The risk of stroke after a transient ischemic attack (TIA) for patients with a positive diffusion-weighted image (DWI), i.e., transient symptoms with infarction (TSI), is much higher than for those with a negative DWI. The aim of this study was to validate the predictive value of a web-based recurrence risk estimator (RRE; http://www.nmr.mgh.harvard.edu/RRE/) of TSI.<h4>Methods</h4>Data from the prospective hospital-based TIA database of the First Affiliated Hospit ...[more]

PMID: 26394400

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Project description:ObjectiveWe aimed to investigate factors related to the 90-day poor prognosis (mRS≥3) in patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke, construct 90-day poor prognosis prediction models for patients with TIA or minor stroke, and compare the predictive performance of machine learning models and Logistic model.MethodWe selected TIA and minor stroke patients from a prospective registry study (CNSR-III). Demographic characteristics,smoking history, drinking history(≥20g/day), physiological data, medical history,secondary prevention treatment, in-hospital evaluation and education,laboratory data, neurological severity, mRS score and TOAST classification of patients were assessed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed in the training set to identify predictors associated with poor outcome (mRS≥3). The predictors were used to establish machine learning models and the traditional Logistic model, which were randomly divided into the training set and test set according to the ratio of 70:30. The training set was used to construct the prediction model, and the test set was used to evaluate the effect of the model. The evaluation indicators of the model included the area under the curve (AUC) of the discrimination index and the Brier score (or calibration plot) of the calibration index.ResultA total of 10967 patients with TIA and minor stroke were enrolled in this study, with an average age of 61.77 ± 11.18 years, and women accounted for 30.68%. Factors associated with the poor prognosis in TIA and minor stroke patients included sex, age, stroke history, heart rate, D-dimer, creatinine, TOAST classification, admission mRS, discharge mRS, and discharge NIHSS score. All models, both those constructed by Logistic regression and those by machine learning, performed well in predicting the 90-day poor prognosis (AUC >0.800). The best performing AUC in the test set was the Catboost model (AUC=0.839), followed by the XGBoost, GBDT, random forest and Adaboost model (AUCs equal to 0.838, 0, 835, 0.832, 0.823, respectively). The performance of Catboost and XGBoost in predicting poor prognosis at 90-day was better than the Logistic model, and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05). All models, both those constructed by Logistic regression and those by machine learning had good calibration.ConclusionMachine learning algorithms were not inferior to the Logistic regression model in predicting the poor prognosis of patients with TIA and minor stroke at 90-day. Among them, the Catboost model had the best predictive performance. All models provided good discrimination.

Project description:BackgroundTimely and appropriate hospital treatment of acute cerebrovascular diseases (stroke and Transient Ischemic Attacks - TIA) improves patient outcomes. Emergency Medical Service (EMS) dispatchers who can identify cerebrovascular disease symptoms during telephone requests for emergency service also contribute to these improved outcomes. The Italian Ministry of Health issued guidelines on the management of AC patients in pre-hospital emergency service, including Cincinnati Prehospital Stroke Scale (CPSS) use.We measured the sensitivity and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) of EMS dispatchers' ability to recognize stroke/TIA symptoms and evaluated whether the CPSS improves accuracy.MethodsA cross-sectional multicentre study was conducted to collect data from 38 Italian emergency operative centres on all cases identified with stroke/TIA symptoms at the time of dispatch and all cases with stroke/TIA symptoms identified on the scene by the ambulance personnel from November 2010 to May 2011.ResultsThe study included 21760 cases: 18231 with stroke/TIA symptoms at dispatch and 9791 with symptoms confirmed on the scene. The PPV of the dispatch stroke/TIA symptoms identification was 34.3% (95% CI 33.7-35.0; 6262/18231) and the sensitivity was 64.0% (95% CI 63.0-64.9; 6262/9791). Centres using CPSS more often (>10% of cases) had both higher PPV (56%; CI 95% 57-60 vs 18%; CI 95% 17-19) and higher sensitivity (71%; CI 95% 87-89 vs 52%; CI 95% 51-54).In the multivariate regression a centre's CPSS use was associated with PPV (beta 0.48 p = 0.014) and negatively associated with sensitivity (beta -0.36; p = 0.063); centre sensitivity was associated with CPSS (beta 0.32; p = 0.002), adjusting for PPV.ConclusionsCentres that use CPSS more frequently during phone dispatch showed greater agreement with on-the-scene prehospital assessments, both in correctly identifying more cases with stroke/TIA symptoms and in giving fewer false positives for non-stroke/TIA cases. Our study shows an extreme variability in the performance among OCs, highlighting that form many centres there is room for improvement in both sensitivity and positive predictive value of the dispatch. Our results should be used for benchmarking proposals in the effort to identify best practices across the country.

Project description:ObjectiveTo validate the previously derived Canadian TIA Score to stratify subsequent stroke risk in a new cohort of emergency department patients with transient ischaemic attack.DesignProspective cohort study.Setting13 Canadian emergency departments over five years.Participants7607 consecutively enrolled adult patients attending the emergency department with transient ischaemic attack or minor stroke.Main outcome measuresThe primary outcome was subsequent stroke or carotid endarterectomy/carotid artery stenting within seven days. The secondary outcome was subsequent stroke within seven days (with or without carotid endarterectomy/carotid artery stenting). Telephone follow-up used the validated Questionnaire for Verifying Stroke Free Status at seven and 90 days. All outcomes were adjudicated by panels of three stroke experts, blinded to the index emergency department visit.ResultsOf the 7607 patients, 108 (1.4%) had a subsequent stroke within seven days, 83 (1.1%) had carotid endarterectomy/carotid artery stenting within seven days, and nine had both. The Canadian TIA Score stratified the risk of stroke, carotid endarterectomy/carotid artery stenting, or both within seven days as low (risk ≤0.5%; interval likelihood ratio 0.20, 95% confidence interval 0.09 to 0.44), medium (risk 2.3%; interval likelihood ratio 0.94, 0.85 to 1.04), and high (risk 5.9% interval likelihood ratio 2.56, 2.02 to 3.25) more accurately (area under the curve 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.66 to 0.73) than did the ABCD2 (0.60, 0.55 to 0.64) or ABCD2i (0.64, 0.59 to 0.68). Results were similar for subsequent stroke regardless of carotid endarterectomy/carotid artery stenting within seven days.ConclusionThe Canadian TIA Score stratifies patients' seven day risk for stroke, with or without carotid endarterectomy/carotid artery stenting, and is now ready for clinical use. Incorporating this validated risk estimate into management plans should improve early decision making at the index emergency visit regarding benefits of hospital admission, timing of investigations, and prioritisation of specialist referral.

Project description:Background and purposeWe determined the association between hospital factors, performance on transient ischemic attack (TIA) process measures, and 90-day ischemic stroke incidence.MethodsLongitudinal analysis of retrospectively obtained data on 9168 veterans ≥18 years with TIA presenting to the emergency department or inpatient unit at 69 Veterans Affairs hospitals with ≥10 eligible patients per year in fiscal years 2015 to 2018. Process measures were high/moderate potency statin within 7 days of discharge, antithrombotic by day 2, and hypertension control (<140/90 mm Hg) at 90 days. The outcome was 90-day stroke incidence.ResultsDuring the 4-year study period, hospitals significantly increased statin use (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] per 1-year increase, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.17–1.32]; P<0.001), whereas neither hypertension control (P=0.44) nor antithrombotic use (P=0.82) improved over time. Hospitals that admitted a higher proportion of TIA patients versus emergency department discharge had significantly greater use of statins (aOR per 10-percentage point increase in the proportion of TIA patients admitted, 1.09 [1.03–1.16]; P=0.003) and antithrombotics (aOR per 10-percentage point increase in TIA patients admitted, 1.14 [1.06–1.23]; P<0.001). Hospitals with higher emergency physician staffing and lower TIA patient volume had greater use of antithrombotics (aOR per 1 full-time physician increase, 1.05 [1.01–1.08]; P=0.008 and aOR per 10-patient decrease in volume, 1.09 [1.01–1.16]; P=0.02). Higher emergency physician staffing was associated with lower 90-day stroke incidence (aOR per 1 full-time physician increase, 0.96 [0.92–0.99]; P=0.02) but other hospital factors were not.ConclusionsHospitals admitting higher percentages of TIA patients and having higher emergency physician staffing have greater performance on select guideline-concordant process measures for TIA. Higher emergency physician staffing was associated with improved outcomes 90 days after TIA.

Dataset Information

Validation of the RRE-90 Scale to Predict Stroke Risk after Transient Symptoms with Infarction: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Background and purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Validation of the RRE-90 Scale to Predict Stroke Risk after Transient Symptoms with Infarction: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Similar Datasets

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