Ordinal Prediction Model of 90-Day Modified Rankin Scale in Ischemic Stroke
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SUBMITTER: Zhang M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8569127 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectiveTo compare how 3 common representations (ordinal vs dichotomized as 0-1/2-6 or 0-2/3-6) of the modified Rankin Scale (mRS)-a commonly used trial outcome measure-relate to long-term outcomes, and quantify trial ineligibility rates based on premorbid mRS.MethodsIn consecutive patients with ischemic stroke in a population-based, prospective, cohort study (Oxford Vascular Study; 2002-2014), we related 3-month mRS to 1-year and 5-year disability and death (logistic regressions), and health/social care costs (generalized linear model), adjusted for age/sex, and compared goodness-of-fit values (C statistic, mean absolute error). We also calculated the proportion of patients in whom premorbid mRS score >1 or >2 would result in exclusion from trials using dichotomous analysis.ResultsAmong 1,607 patients, the ordinal mRS was more strongly related to 5-year mortality than both the 0-1/2-6 and 0-2/3-6 dichotomies (all p < 0.0001). Results were similar for 5-year disability, and 5-year care costs were also best captured by the ordinal model (change in mean absolute error vs age/sex: -$3,059 for ordinal, -$2,805 for 0-2/3-6, -$1,647 for 0-1/2-6). Two hundred forty-four (17.1%) 3-month survivors had premorbid mRS score >2 and 434 (30.5%) had mRS score >1; both proportions increased with female sex, socioeconomic deprivation, and age (all p < 0.0001).ConclusionThe ordinal form of the 3-month mRS relates better to long-term outcomes and costs in survivors of ischemic stroke than either dichotomy. This finding favors using ordinal approaches in trials analyzing the mRS. Exclusion of patients with higher premorbid disability by use of dichotomous primary outcomes will also result in unrepresentative samples.
| S-EPMC6260198 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundOrdinal/shift analyses of ordered measures like the modified Rankin Scale(mRS) are underused as primary trial outcomes for neurological disorders - despite statistical advantages - potentially hindered by poor clinical interpretability versus dichotomies, and by valuing state-transitions equally (linear scale). Weighted ordinal analyses incorporating step-changes at key transitions might have greater statistical validity and clinical applicability.MethodsIn a prospective population-based cohort of ischaemic stroke (Oxford Vascular Study, recruited 2002-2014), we stratified 5-year outcomes of death, dementia, and/or institutionalization, health/social-care costs, and EuroQol-derived quality-adjusted life-expectancy(QALE) by 3-month mRS. We compared root-mean-square errors(RMSEs) from linear regressions for these outcomes with the mRS coded as a linear scale versus incorporating a spline at transitions 1-2, 2-3, or 3-4. We derived 3-month mRS weights for probability of 5-year death/dementia/institutionalization using age/sex-adjusted logistic regressions, and cost and QALE weights from 1000-bootstraps. We applied these weights to analyse recent trials of thrombectomy for acute ischaemic stroke.FindingsAmong 1,607 patients, a non-linear (S-shaped) relationship was observed between 3-month mRS and each 5-year outcome, with RMSEs 18-73% lower using a spline at mRS 2-3 versus a linear representation. Age/sex-adjusted probability weights for 5-year death/dementia/institutionalization were: mRS 0=0.19; 1=0.27; 2=0.41; 3=0.73; 4=0.77; 5=0.94 (mRS 6=1 by definition). Similar trends were seen with costs; estimated 5-year QALEs were: mRS 0=3.88; 1=3.49; 2=3.01; 3=1.87; 4=1.30; 5=0.06; 6=0. Results were similar stratifying by age/sex, and excluding pre-morbidly disabled patients. Using a weighted ordinal approach, estimates of thrombectomy impact were more favourable than estimates with dichotomous approaches, 5-year cost reductions being 29% higher than with 0-2/3-6, and over three-fold higher than with 0-1/2-6 dichotomy.InterpretationOur findings favour weighting the mRS in ordinal analyses for stroke and other neurological disorders, as state-transitions differ in clinical prognosis, quality-of-life, and costs. These weights could also be used for prognostication and cost-effectiveness analyses.FundingWellcome Trust, Wolfson Foundation, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Rhodes Trust.
| S-EPMC7300241 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Longshi Scale, a visual-based scale, is reliable and valid in activity assessment, but lacks cutoff definition corresponding to classical scales such as the modified Rankin Scale and Barthel Index. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the relationships of the Longshi Scale with the modified Rankin Scale and Barthel Index and optimize cutoff scores of these scales in stroke outcomes assessment. This is a cross-sectional study. Stroke patients were measured concurrently by the Longshi scale, modified Rankin Scale and Barthel Index. Kruskal-Wallis test and Spearman correlation analysis were used to analyze the differences and associations among the three scales. The receiver operating characteristic curve was performed to determine the optimal cutoff scores. A total of 5475 stroke patients (67.3% ischemic) were included in this study. There are close relationships of the Longshi Scale with adjusted modified Rankin Scale and Barthel Index (r = -0.861, 0.922; p<0.001, <0.001; respectively). The activity levels assessed by adjusted modified Rankin Scale and Barthel Index among different Longshi scale grades were significantly different (χ2:4217.27, 4676.55; p<0.001, <0.001; respectively). The optimal cutoff scores were adjusted modified Rankin Scale 4, 3, 3, 3, 2 for Longshi scale grade 2 to 6 (sensitivity%: 96.12, 70.24, 89.10, 96.80, 86.23, specificity%: 72.72, 98.29, 93.81, 79.82, 92.89, respectively), and Barthel Index 15, 45, 60, 75, 80 for Longshi scale grade 2 to 6 (sensitivity%: 92.54, 89.28, 91.32, 90.30, 95.65, specificity%: 95.48, 89.51, 94.02, 90.41, 90.62, respectively). In conclusion, the classification of Longshi Scale is consistent with those of modified Rankin Scale and Barthel Index. We recommend the Longshi Scale as an effective supplement for modified Rankin Scale and Barthel Index in assessing the outcome in acute stroke patients.
| S-EPMC8118543 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE:The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) was designed to measure poststroke recovery but is often used to describe pre-stroke disability. We sought to evaluate three aspects of pre-stroke mRS: validity as a measure of pre-stroke disability; prognostic accuracy and association of pre-stroke mRS scores, and process of care. METHODS:We used data from a large, UK clinical registry. For analysis of validity, we compared pre-stroke mRS against other markers of pre-stroke function (age, comorbidity index, care needs). For analysis of prognostic accuracy, we described univariable and multivariable models comparing pre-stroke mRS and other prognostic variables against a variety of outcomes (early and late mortality, length of stay, institutionalization, incident complications). Finally, we described association of pre-stroke mRS and components of evidence-based stroke care (early neuroimaging, admission to stroke unit, assessment of swallow). RESULTS:We analyzed data of 2,491 stroke patients. Concurrent validity analyses suggested statistically significant, but modest correlations between pre-stroke mRS and chosen variables (rho >0.40; p?<?0.0001 for all). Every point increase of pre-stroke mRS was associated with poorer outcomes for our prognostic variables (unadjusted p?<?0.001). This association held when corrected for other covariates. For example, pre-stroke mRS 4-5 odds ratio (OR): 6.84 (95% CI: 4.24-11.03) for 1?year mortality compared to mRS 0 in adjusted model. There was a difference between pre-stroke mRS and treatment, with higher pre-stroke mRS more likely to receive evidence-based care. CONCLUSION:Results suggest that pre-stroke mRS has some concurrent validity and is a robust predictor of prognosis. This association is not explained by the influence of pre-stroke mRS on care pathways.
| S-EPMC5468801 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and purposeLarge-scale observational studies of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) promise to reveal mechanisms underlying cerebral ischemia. However, meaningful quantitative phenotypes attainable in large patient populations are needed. We characterize a dynamic metric of AIS instability, defined by change in National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (NIHSS) from baseline to 24 hours baseline to 24 hours (NIHSSbaseline - NIHSS24hours = ΔNIHSS6-24h), to examine its relevance to AIS mechanisms and long-term outcomes.MethodsPatients with NIHSS prospectively recorded within 6 hours after onset and then 24 hours later were enrolled in the GENISIS study (Genetics of Early Neurological Instability After Ischemic Stroke). Stepwise linear regression determined variables that independently influenced ΔNIHSS6-24h. In a subcohort of tPA (alteplase)-treated patients with large vessel occlusion, the influence of early sustained recanalization and hemorrhagic transformation on ΔNIHSS6-24h was examined. Finally, the association of ΔNIHSS6-24h with 90-day favorable outcomes (modified Rankin Scale score 0-2) was assessed. Independent analysis was performed using data from the 2 NINDS-tPA stroke trials (National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke rt-PA).ResultsFor 2555 patients with AIS, median baseline NIHSS was 9 (interquartile range, 4-16), and median ΔNIHSS6-24h was 2 (interquartile range, 0-5). In a multivariable model, baseline NIHSS, tPA-treatment, age, glucose, site, and systolic blood pressure independently predicted ΔNIHSS6-24h (R2=0.15). In the large vessel occlusion subcohort, early sustained recanalization and hemorrhagic transformation increased the explained variance (R2=0.27), but much of the variance remained unexplained. ΔNIHSS6-24h had a significant and independent association with 90-day favorable outcome. For the subjects in the 2 NINDS-tPA trials, ΔNIHSS3-24h was similarly associated with 90-day outcomes.ConclusionsThe dynamic phenotype, ΔNIHSS6-24h, captures both explained and unexplained mechanisms involved in AIS and is significantly and independently associated with long-term outcomes. Thus, ΔNIHSS6-24h promises to be an easily obtainable and meaningful quantitative phenotype for large-scale genomic studies of AIS.
| S-EPMC7769959 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and purposeWe determined the association between hospital factors, performance on transient ischemic attack (TIA) process measures, and 90-day ischemic stroke incidence.MethodsLongitudinal analysis of retrospectively obtained data on 9168 veterans ≥18 years with TIA presenting to the emergency department or inpatient unit at 69 Veterans Affairs hospitals with ≥10 eligible patients per year in fiscal years 2015 to 2018. Process measures were high/moderate potency statin within 7 days of discharge, antithrombotic by day 2, and hypertension control (<140/90 mm Hg) at 90 days. The outcome was 90-day stroke incidence.ResultsDuring the 4-year study period, hospitals significantly increased statin use (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] per 1-year increase, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.17–1.32]; P<0.001), whereas neither hypertension control (P=0.44) nor antithrombotic use (P=0.82) improved over time. Hospitals that admitted a higher proportion of TIA patients versus emergency department discharge had significantly greater use of statins (aOR per 10-percentage point increase in the proportion of TIA patients admitted, 1.09 [1.03–1.16]; P=0.003) and antithrombotics (aOR per 10-percentage point increase in TIA patients admitted, 1.14 [1.06–1.23]; P<0.001). Hospitals with higher emergency physician staffing and lower TIA patient volume had greater use of antithrombotics (aOR per 1 full-time physician increase, 1.05 [1.01–1.08]; P=0.008 and aOR per 10-patient decrease in volume, 1.09 [1.01–1.16]; P=0.02). Higher emergency physician staffing was associated with lower 90-day stroke incidence (aOR per 1 full-time physician increase, 0.96 [0.92–0.99]; P=0.02) but other hospital factors were not.ConclusionsHospitals admitting higher percentages of TIA patients and having higher emergency physician staffing have greater performance on select guideline-concordant process measures for TIA. Higher emergency physician staffing was associated with improved outcomes 90 days after TIA.
| S-EPMC8238890 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Many blood biomarkers are reportedly helpful for predicting post-stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI), but no biomarkers are widely used in clinical practice. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between the plasma immunoproteasome and patients' 90-day prognosis after first-ever acute ischemic stroke. In our prospective, single-center study, 259 patients with first-ever acute ischemic stroke were enrolled from the Department of Neurology, Fujian Provincial Hospital, China, from March to September 2014. Of these, 27 patients (10.4%) had unfavorable outcomes as assessed by the Modified Rankin Scale (scores of 3-6). The National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score on admission, plasma N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) levels, and immunopro-teasome subunit (low molecular mass peptide [LMP]2, LMP5, and LMP7) levels were significantly higher in the unfavorable outcome group than in the favorable outcome group. To predict unfavorable outcomes, the optimal cutoff points were National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score > 12, NT-pro-BNP level > 1883.5 pg/mL, and LMP2 level > 841.4 pg/mL. Of the 193 patients that were able to complete the Mini-Mental State Examination at 90 days post-stroke, 66 patients (34.2%) had PSCI. Plasma levels of NT-pro-BNP and LMP2 were higher in patients with PSCI than in those without PSCI. To predict PSCI, the optimal cutoff values were age > 70.5 years and LMP2 level > 630.5 pg/mL. These findings indicate that plasma LMP2 may serve as a new prognostic biomarker of poor outcome and PSCI at 90 days after stroke. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Fujian Provincial Hospital, Provincial Clinical Medical College of Fujian Medical University (approval No. K2014-01-003) on January 15, 2014.
| S-EPMC8067934 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe prognostic value of frailty measures for post-stroke neurocognitive disorder (NCD) remains to be evaluated.AimsThe aim of this study was to compare the predictive value of pre-stroke FI with pre-stroke modified Rankin Scale (mRS) for post-stroke cognitive impairment. Further, we explored the added value of including FI in prediction models for cognitive prognosis post-stroke.MethodsWe generated a 36-item Frailty Index (FI), based on the Rockwood FI, to measure frailty based on pre-stroke medical conditions recorded in the Nor-COAST multicentre prospective study baseline assessments. Consecutive participants with a FI score and completed cognitive test battery at three months were included. We generated Odds Ratio (OR) with NCD as the dependent variable. The predictors of primary interest were pre-stroke frailty and mRS. We also measured the predictive values of mRS and FI by the area (AUC) under the receiver operating characteristic curve.Results598 participants (43.0% women, mean/SD age = 71.6/11.9, mean/SD education = 12.5/3.8, mean/SD pre-stroke mRS = 0.8/1.0, mean/SD GDS pre-stroke = 1.4/0.8, mean/SD NIHSS day 1 3/4), had a FI mean/SD score = 0.14/0.10. The logistic regression analyses showed that FI (OR 3.09), as well as the mRS (OR 2.21), were strong predictors of major NCD. When FI and mRS were entered as predictors simultaneously, the OR for mRS decreased relatively more than that for FI. AUC for NCD post-stroke was higher for FI than for mRS, both for major NCD (0.762 vs 0.677) and for any NCD (0.681 vs 0.638).ConclusionsFI is a stronger predictor of post-stroke NCD than pre-stroke mRS and could be a part of the prediction models for cognitive prognosis post-stroke.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02650531 .
| S-EPMC8857811 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNinety-day hometime, the number of days a patient is living in the community in the first 90 after stroke, exhibits a non-normal bucket-shaped distribution, with lower and upper constraints making its analysis difficult. In this proof-of-concept study we evaluated the performance of random forests regression in the analysis of hometime.MethodsUsing administrative data we identified stroke hospitalizations between 2010 and 2017 in Ontario, Canada. We used random forests regression to predict 90-day hometime using 15 covariates. Model accuracy was determined using the r-squared statistic. Variable importance in prediction and the marginal effects of each covariate were explored.ResultsWe identified 75,745 eligible patients. Median 90-day hometime was 59 days (Q1: 2, Q3: 83). Random forests predicted hometime with reasonable accuracy (adjusted r-squared 0.3462); no implausible values were predicted but extreme values were predicted with low accuracy. Frailty, stroke severity, and age exhibited inverse non-linear relationships with hometime and patients arriving by ambulance had less hometime than those who did not.ConclusionsRandom forests may be a useful method for analyzing 90-day hometime and capturing the complex non-linear relationships which exist between predictors and hometime. Future work should compare random forests to other models and focus on improving the accuracy of predictions of extreme values of hometime.
| S-EPMC8112132 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The aim was to create an algorithm to transform self-reported outcomes from a stroke register to the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). Two stroke registers were used: the Väststroke, a local register in Gothenburg, Sweden, and the Riksstroke, a Swedish national register. The reference variable, mRS (from Väststroke), was mapped with seven self-reported questions from Riksstroke. The transformation algorithm was created as a result of manual mapping performed by healthcare professionals. A supervised machine learning method-decision tree-was used to further evaluate the transformation algorithm. Of 1145 patients, 54% were male, the mean age was 71 y. The mRS grades 0, 1 and 2 could not be distinguished as a result of manual mapping or by using the decision tree analysis. Thus, these grades were merged. With manual mapping, 78% of the patients were correctly classified, and the level of agreement was almost perfect, weighted Kappa (Kw) was 0.81. With the decision tree, 80% of the patients were correctly classified, and substantial agreement was achieved, Kw?=?0.67. The self-reported outcomes from a stroke register can be transformed to the mRS. A mRS algorithm based on manual mapping might be useful for researchers using self-reported questionnaire data.
| S-EPMC7560748 | biostudies-literature