Dataset Information

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland.

Methods

CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted.

Results

Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.

SUBMITTER: Hughes J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4589484 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

Hughes John J Kabir Zubair Z Bennett Kathleen K Hotchkiss Joel W JW Kee Frank F Leyland Alastair H AH Davies Carolyn C Bandosz Piotr P Guzman-Castillo Maria M O'Flaherty Martin M Capewell Simon S Critchley Julia J

PloS one 20150930 9

<h4>Objective</h4>Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland.<h4>Methods</h4>CHD mortality ...[more]

PMID: 26422012

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Project description:ObjectivesTo examine how much of the observed rapid decrease in mortality from coronary heart disease in Poland after the political, social, and economic transformation in the early 1990s could be explained by the use of medical and surgical treatments and how much by changes in cardiovascular risk factors.DesignA modelling study.SettingSources of data included controlled trials and meta-analyses, national surveys, and official statistics.ParticipantsPopulation of adults aged 25-74 in Poland in 1991-2005.Main outcome measuresNumber of deaths prevented or postponed in 2005 attributable to specific treatments for coronary heart disease and changes in risk factors. A previously validated epidemiological model for coronary heart disease was used to combine and analyse data on the uptake and effectiveness of specific cardiac treatments and changes in risk factors. The observed fall in deaths from coronary heart disease from 1991 to 2005 was then partitioned among specific treatments and risk factor changes.ResultsFrom 1991 to 2005, the death rate from coronary heart disease in Poland halved, resulting in 26,200 fewer coronary deaths in 2005 in people aged 25-74. About 37% (minimum estimate 13%, maximum estimate 77%) of this decrease was attributable to treatments, including treatments for heart failure (12%), initial treatments for acute coronary syndrome (9%), secondary prevention treatments after myocardial infarction or revascularisation (7%), chronic angina treatments (3%), and other treatments (6%). About 54% of the fall was attributed to changes in risk factors (minimum estimate 41%, maximum estimate 65%), mainly reductions in total cholesterol concentration (39%) and an increase in leisuretime physical activity (10%); however, these were partially offset by increases in body mass index (-4%) and prevalence of diabetes (-2%). Blood pressure fell in women, explaining about 29% of their decrease in mortality, but rose in men generating a negative influence (-8%). About 15% of the observed decrease in mortality was attributable to reduced smoking in men but was negligible in women.ConclusionsOver half of the recent fall in mortality from coronary heart disease in Poland can be attributed to reductions in major risk factors and about one third to evidence based medical treatments.

Project description:BackgroundCoronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in England fell by approximately 6% every year between 2000 and 2007. However, rates fell differentially between social groups with inequalities actually widening. We sought to describe the extent to which this reduction in CHD mortality was attributable to changes in either levels of risk factors or treatment uptake, both across and within socioeconomic groups.Methods and findingsA widely used and replicated epidemiological model was used to synthesise estimates stratified by age, gender, and area deprivation quintiles for the English population aged 25 and older between 2000 and 2007. Mortality rates fell, with approximately 38,000 fewer CHD deaths in 2007. The model explained about 86% (95% uncertainty interval: 65%-107%) of this mortality fall. Decreases in major cardiovascular risk factors contributed approximately 34% (21%-47%) to the overall decline in CHD mortality: ranging from about 44% (31%-61%) in the most deprived to 29% (16%-42%) in the most affluent quintile. The biggest contribution came from a substantial fall in systolic blood pressure in the population not on hypertension medication (29%; 18%-40%); more so in deprived (37%) than in affluent (25%) areas. Other risk factor contributions were relatively modest across all social groups: total cholesterol (6%), smoking (3%), and physical activity (2%). Furthermore, these benefits were partly negated by mortality increases attributable to rises in body mass index and diabetes (-9%; -17% to -3%), particularly in more deprived quintiles. Treatments accounted for approximately 52% (40%-70%) of the mortality decline, equitably distributed across all social groups. Lipid reduction (14%), chronic angina treatment (13%), and secondary prevention (11%) made the largest medical contributions.ConclusionsThe model suggests that approximately half the recent CHD mortality fall in England was attributable to improved treatment uptake. This benefit occurred evenly across all social groups. However, opposing trends in major risk factors meant that their net contribution amounted to just over a third of the CHD deaths averted; these also varied substantially by socioeconomic group. Powerful and equitable evidence-based population-wide policy interventions exist; these should now be urgently implemented to effectively tackle persistent inequalities.

Project description:AimsCoronary artery disease (CAD) is a common cause of heart failure (HF). It remains unclear who, when and why to direct towards coronary revascularization. The outcomes of coronary revascularization in HF patients are still a matter of debate nowadays. This study aims to evaluate the effect of revascularization strategy on all-cause of death in the context of ischaemic HF.Methods and resultsAn observational cohort was conducted on 692 consecutive patients who underwent coronary angiography at the University Hospital of Toulouse between January 2018 and December 2021 for either a recent diagnosis of HF or a decompensated chronic HF, and in whom coronary angiograms showed at least 50% obstructive coronary lesion. The study population was divided into two groups according to the performance or not of a coronary revascularization procedure. The living status (alive or dead) of each of the study's participants was observed by April 2022. Seventy-three per cent of the study population underwent coronary revascularization either by percutaneous coronary intervention (66.6%) or coronary artery bypass grafting (6.2%). Baseline characteristics including age, sex and cardiovascular risk factors did not differ between the invasive and conservative groups, respectively. Death occurred in 162 study participants resulting in an all-cause mortality rate of 23.5%; 26.7% of observed deaths have occurred in the conservative group versus 22.2% in the invasive group (P = 0.208). No difference in survival outcomes has been observed over a mean follow-up period of 2.5 years (P = 0.140) even after stratification by HF categories (P = 0.132) or revascularization modalities (P = 0.366).ConclusionsFindings from the present study showed comparable all-cause mortality rates between groups. Coronary revascularization does not modify short-term survival outcomes in HF patients compared with optimal medical therapy alone outside the setting of acute coronary syndrome.

Dataset Information

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

Similar Datasets

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