Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Vilhjalmsson BJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4596916 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Polygenic scores have recently been used to summarise genetic effects among an ensemble of markers that do not individually achieve significance in a large-scale association study. Markers are selected using an initial training sample and used to construct a score in an independent replication sample by forming the weighted sum of associated alleles within each subject. Association between a trait and this composite score implies that a genetic signal is present among the selected markers, and the score can then be used for prediction of individual trait values. This approach has been used to obtain evidence of a genetic effect when no single markers are significant, to establish a common genetic basis for related disorders, and to construct risk prediction models. In some cases, however, the desired association or prediction has not been achieved. Here, the power and predictive accuracy of a polygenic score are derived from a quantitative genetics model as a function of the sizes of the two samples, explained genetic variance, selection thresholds for including a marker in the score, and methods for weighting effect sizes in the score. Expressions are derived for quantitative and discrete traits, the latter allowing for case/control sampling. A novel approach to estimating the variance explained by a marker panel is also proposed. It is shown that published studies with significant association of polygenic scores have been well powered, whereas those with negative results can be explained by low sample size. It is also shown that useful levels of prediction may only be approached when predictors are estimated from very large samples, up to an order of magnitude greater than currently available. Therefore, polygenic scores currently have more utility for association testing than predicting complex traits, but prediction will become more feasible as sample sizes continue to grow.
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Project description:Accurate prediction of disease risk based on genetic factors is an important goal in human genetics research and precision medicine. Advanced prediction models will lead to more effective disease prevention and treatment strategies. Despite the identification of thousands of disease-associated genetic variants through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in the past decade, accuracy of genetic risk prediction remains moderate for most diseases, which is largely due to the challenges in both identifying all the functionally relevant variants and accurately estimating their effect sizes. In this work, we introduce PleioPred, a principled framework that leverages pleiotropy and functional annotations in genetic risk prediction for complex diseases. PleioPred uses GWAS summary statistics as its input, and jointly models multiple genetically correlated diseases and a variety of external information including linkage disequilibrium and diverse functional annotations to increase the accuracy of risk prediction. Through comprehensive simulations and real data analyses on Crohn's disease, celiac disease and type-II diabetes, we demonstrate that our approach can substantially increase the accuracy of polygenic risk prediction and risk population stratification, i.e. PleioPred can significantly better separate type-II diabetes patients with early and late onset ages, illustrating its potential clinical application. Furthermore, we show that the increment in prediction accuracy is significantly correlated with the genetic correlation between the predicted and jointly modeled diseases.
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Project description:Polygenic prediction using genome-wide SNPs can provide high prediction accuracy for complex traits. Here, we investigate the question of how to account for genetic ancestry when conducting polygenic prediction. We show that the accuracy of polygenic prediction in structured populations may be partly due to genetic ancestry. However, we hypothesized that explicitly modeling ancestry could improve polygenic prediction accuracy. We analyzed three GWAS of hair color (HC), tanning ability (TA), and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) in European Americans (sample size from 7,440 to 9,822) and considered two widely used polygenic prediction approaches: polygenic risk scores (PRSs) and best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). We compared polygenic prediction without correction for ancestry to polygenic prediction with ancestry as a separate component in the model. In 10-fold cross-validation using the PRS approach, the R(2) for HC increased by 66% (0.0456-0.0755; P < 10(-16)), the R(2) for TA increased by 123% (0.0154 to 0.0344; P < 10(-16)), and the liability-scale R(2) for BCC increased by 68% (0.0138-0.0232; P < 10(-16)) when explicitly modeling ancestry, which prevents ancestry effects from entering into each SNP effect and being overweighted. Surprisingly, explicitly modeling ancestry produces a similar improvement when using the BLUP approach, which fits all SNPs simultaneously in a single variance component and causes ancestry to be underweighted. We validate our findings via simulations, which show that the differences in prediction accuracy will increase in magnitude as sample sizes increase. In summary, our results show that explicitly modeling ancestry can be important in both PRS and BLUP prediction.
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Project description:BackgroundPolygenic risk scores (PRS) are valuable to translate the results of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) into clinical practice. To date, most GWAS have been based on individuals of European-ancestry leading to poor performance in populations of non-European ancestry.ResultsWe introduce the polygenic transcriptome risk score (PTRS), which is based on predicted transcript levels (rather than SNPs), and explore the portability of PTRS across populations using UK Biobank data.ConclusionsWe show that PTRS has a significantly higher portability (Wilcoxon p=0.013) in the African-descent samples where the loss of performance is most acute with better performance than PRS when used in combination.
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Project description:Low-pass sequencing (sequencing a genome to an average depth less than 1× coverage) combined with genotype imputation has been proposed as an alternative to genotyping arrays for trait mapping and calculation of polygenic scores. To empirically assess the relative performance of these technologies for different applications, we performed low-pass sequencing (targeting coverage levels of 0.5× and 1×) and array genotyping (using the Illumina Global Screening Array (GSA)) on 120 DNA samples derived from African and European-ancestry individuals that are part of the 1000 Genomes Project. We then imputed both the sequencing data and the genotyping array data to the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 haplotype reference panel using a leave- one-out design. We evaluated overall imputation accuracy from these different assays as well as overall power for GWAS from imputed data, and computed polygenic risk scores for coronary artery disease and breast cancer using previously derived weights. We conclude that low-pass sequencing plus imputation, in addition to providing a substantial increase in statistical power for genome wide association studies, provides increased accuracy for polygenic risk prediction at effective coverages of ∼ 0.5× and higher compared to the Illumina GSA.
2021-01-31 | GSE165845 | GEO
Project description:Recent migrations and inter-ethnic mating of long isolated populations have resulted in genetically admixed populations. To understand the complex population admixture process, which is critical to both evolutionary and medical studies, here we used admixture induced linkage disequilibrium (LD) to infer continuous admixture events, which is common for most existing admixed populations. Unlike previous studies, we expanded the typical continuous admixture model to a more general scenario with isolation after a certain duration of continuous gene flow. Based on the new models, we developed a method, CAMer, to infer the admixture history considering continuous and complex demographic process of gene flow between populations. We evaluated the performance of CAMer by computer simulation and further applied our method to real data analysis of a few well-known admixed populations.
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Project description:Fields as diverse as human genetics and sociology are increasingly using polygenic scores based on genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for phenotypic prediction. However, recent work has shown that polygenic scores have limited portability across groups of different genetic ancestries, restricting the contexts in which they can be used reliably and potentially creating serious inequities in future clinical applications. Using the UK Biobank data, we demonstrate that even within a single ancestry group (i.e., when there are negligible differences in linkage disequilibrium or in causal alleles frequencies), the prediction accuracy of polygenic scores can depend on characteristics such as the socio-economic status, age or sex of the individuals in which the GWAS and the prediction were conducted, as well as on the GWAS design. Our findings highlight both the complexities of interpreting polygenic scores and underappreciated obstacles to their broad use.
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Project description:We compared the accuracy of haplotype inferences at a 6 Mb region on chromosome 7 where significant linkage between a brain oscillation phenotype and a cholinergic muscarinic receptor gene was previously reported. Individual haplotype assignments and haplotype frequencies were estimated using 5, 10, and 14 consecutive Illumina single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the 1-LOD unit support interval of the chromosome 7 linkage peak. Initially, haplotypes were constructed incorporating phase information provided by relatives using the pedigree analysis package MERLIN. Population-based haplotypes were inferred using the haplotype estimation software HAPLO.STATS and PHASE, using unrelated individuals. The 14 SNPs within this region exhibited markedly low linkage disequilibrium, and the average D' estimate between SNPs was 0.18 (range: 0.01-0.97). In comparison to the family-based haplotypes calculated in MERLIN, the computational inferences of individual haplotype assignments were most accurate when considering 5 consecutive SNPs, but decayed dramatically when considering 10 or 14 SNPs in both PHASE and HAPLO.STATS. When comparing the two haplotype inference methods, both PHASE and HAPLO.STATS performed poorly. These analyses underscore the difficulties of haplotype estimation in the presence of low linkage disequilibrium and stress the importance of careful consideration of confidence measures when using estimated haplotype frequencies and individual assignments in biomedical research.
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Project description:PurposePolygenic risk scores (PRS) summarize genome-wide genotype data into a single variable that produces an individual-level risk score for genetic liability. PRS has been used for prediction of chronic diseases and some risk factors. As PRS has been studied less for physical activity (PA), we constructed PRS for PA and studied how much variation in PA can be explained by this PRS in independent population samples.MethodsWe calculated PRS for self-reported and objectively measured PA using UK Biobank genome-wide association study summary statistics, and analyzed how much of the variation in self-reported (MET-hours per day) and measured (steps and moderate-to-vigorous PA minutes per day) PA could be accounted for by the PRS in the Finnish Twin Cohorts (FTC; N = 759-11,528) and the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 (NFBC1966; N = 3263-4061). Objective measurement of PA was done with wrist-worn accelerometer in UK Biobank and NFBC1966 studies, and with hip-worn accelerometer in the FTC.ResultsThe PRS accounted from 0.07% to 1.44% of the variation (R) in the self-reported and objectively measured PA volumes (P value range = 0.023 to <0.0001) in the FTC and NFBC1966. For both self-reported and objectively measured PA, individuals in the highest PRS deciles had significantly (11%-28%) higher PA volumes compared with the lowest PRS deciles (P value range = 0.017 to <0.0001).ConclusionsPA is a multifactorial phenotype, and the PRS constructed based on UK Biobank results accounted for statistically significant but overall small proportion of the variation in PA in the Finnish cohorts. Using identical methods to assess PA and including less common and rare variants in the construction of PRS may increase the proportion of PA explained by the PRS.
| S-EPMC7292502 | biostudies-literature