Dataset Information

Prevalence of Prostate Cancer Clinical States and Mortality in the United States: Estimates Using a Dynamic Progression Model.

ABSTRACT: To identify patient populations most in need of treatment across the prostate cancer disease continuum, we developed a novel dynamic transition model based on risk of disease progression and mortality.We modeled the flow of patient populations through eight prostate cancer clinical states (PCCS) that are characterized by the status of the primary tumor, presence of metastases, prior and current treatment, and testosterone levels. Simulations used published US incidence rates for each year from 1990. Progression and mortality rates were derived from published clinical trials, meta-analyses, and observational studies. Model outputs included the incidence, prevalence, and mortality for each PCCS. The impact of novel treatments was modeled in three distinct scenarios: metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), non-metastatic CRPC (nmCRPC), or both.The model estimated the prevalence of prostate cancer as 2,219,280 in the US in 2009 and 3,072,480 in 2020, and incidence of mCRPC as 36,100 and 42,970, respectively. All-cause mortality in prostate cancer was estimated at 168,290 in 2009 and 219,360 in 2020, with 20.5% and 19.5% of these deaths, respectively, occurring in men with mCRPC. The majority (86%) of incidence flow into mCRPC states was from the nmCRPC clinical state. In the scenario with novel interventions for nmCRPC states, the progression to mCRPC is reduced, thus decreasing mCRPC incidence by 12% in 2020, with a sustained decline in mCRPC mortality. A limitation of the model is that it does not estimate prostate cancer-specific mortality.The model informs clinical trial design for prostate cancer by quantifying outcomes in PCCS, and demonstrates the impact of an effective therapy applied in an earlier clinical state of nmCRPC on the incidence of mCRPC morbidity and subsequent mortality.

SUBMITTER: Scher HI

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4603789 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prevalence of Prostate Cancer Clinical States and Mortality in the United States: Estimates Using a Dynamic Progression Model.

Scher Howard I HI Solo Kirk K Valant Jason J Todd Mary B MB Mehra Maneesha M

PloS one 20151013 10

<h4>Objective</h4>To identify patient populations most in need of treatment across the prostate cancer disease continuum, we developed a novel dynamic transition model based on risk of disease progression and mortality.<h4>Design and outcome measurements</h4>We modeled the flow of patient populations through eight prostate cancer clinical states (PCCS) that are characterized by the status of the primary tumor, presence of metastases, prior and current treatment, and testosterone levels. Simulati ...[more]

PMID: 26460686

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Project description:BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) prevalence estimates vary and have been based on cohorts with clinically established or diagnosed disease. Undiagnosed AF prevalence estimates are less certain as they are based on nongeneralizable convenience samples.HypothesisBecause AF is often asymptomatic, it my remain undiagnosed until the development of complications such as stroke or heart failure. Consequently, the observed prevalence of diagnosed AF from the literature may underestimate total disease burden. We therefore sought to estimate the total prevalence of both diagnosed and undiagnosed AF.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study from 2012 to 2017 using data from five US medical claims data sets. Undiagnosed AF prevalence was estimated based on the observed incidence of ischemic stroke, systemic embolism (SE), and AF incidence after a stroke/SE. The diagnosed AF cohort included AF patients between Q1 2014 and Q3 2015. The undiagnosed AF cohort were patients with assumed undiagnosed AF in the year before a stroke/SE and who were newly diagnosed with AF in the 3-month poststroke/SE. Stroke/SE incidence was calculated among all AF patients and the ratio of number of undiagnosed AF patients to stroke rate was created. Age- and sex-adjusted estimates were stratified by period of assumed undiagnosed AF before poststroke/SE AF diagnosis (1 or 2 years).ResultsThe estimated US prevalence of AF (diagnosed and undiagnosed) in Q3 2015 was 5 628 000 cases, of which 591 000 cases (11%) were undiagnosed. The assumed 2-year undiagnosed AF prevalence was 23% (1 531 000) of the total prevalent patients with AF (6 568 000). Undiagnosed (vs. diagnosed) AF patients were older and had higher CHA2DS2-VASc scores. Of undiagnosed AF, 93% had CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2 and met OAC criteria.ConclusionsThese contemporary estimates demonstrate the high prevalence of undiagnosed AF in the United States. Undiagnosed AF patients are composed of primarily elderly individuals who if diagnosed, would meet criteria for stroke prevention therapy.

Project description:Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains a leading cause of disability and death in the United States. The "COPD in the United States" project gathered data about the impact of COPD to highlight variability across states and provide a single point of access to data for state decision makers, the public health community and advocates. This report provides a summary of COPD-related morbidity and mortality in the United States and individual states during 2014-2015 (some metrics contain data from other years). Methods: We used data from multiple sources ( the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System [BRFSS], the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research online database, the CDC's chronic disease indicators data, Centers from Medicare and Medicaid Services Chronic Conditions Data Warehouse, Medical Expenditures Panel Survey and the American Association of Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Rehabilitation Pulmonary Rehabilitation Directory) to estimate 10 national and state-specific COPD metrics (prevalence, hospitalizations and emergency department visits, 30-day hospital readmissions, mortality, vaccinations, smoking prevalence, per capita medical cost, and the number of COPD patients per a pulmonary rehabilitation program) and to calculate average score across the 10 metrics. Additionally, we used BRFSS data to calculate the prevalence of common comorbid diseases among people who also report having a diagnosis of COPD. Results: During 2014-2015, 5.9% of adults (more than 15.9 million) reported having been told by their health care professional that they had COPD. The age-adjusted prevalence ranged from 3.7% for Puerto Rico and Hawaii, to 12% for West Virginia. The average score, 1 being best and 5 being worst, of the overall COPD burden based on the 10 key metrics ranged from 1.5 for Puerto Rico and Utah to 4.6 for West Virginia. Conclusion: The level of COPD morbidity and mortality is severe throughout the United States. There is considerable variability in COPD metrics by state. These differences may be useful in identifying and addressing policy gaps in the public health approach to COPD and in implementing the COPD National Action Plan.

Dataset Information

Prevalence of Prostate Cancer Clinical States and Mortality in the United States: Estimates Using a Dynamic Progression Model.

Publications

Prevalence of Prostate Cancer Clinical States and Mortality in the United States: Estimates Using a Dynamic Progression Model.

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