A longitudinal model for disease progression was developed and applied to multiple sclerosis.
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ABSTRACT: Objectives
To develop a model of disease progression using multiple sclerosis (MS) as an exemplar.Study design and settings
Two observational cohorts, the University of Wales MS (UoWMS), UK (1976), and British Columbia MS (BCMS) database, Canada (1980), with longitudinal disability data [the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS)] were used; individuals potentially eligible for MS disease-modifying drugs treatments, but who were unexposed, were selected. Multilevel modeling was used to estimate the EDSS trajectory over time in one data set and validated in the other; challenges addressed included the choice and function of time axis, complex observation-level variation, adjustments for MS relapses, and autocorrelation.Results
The best-fitting model for the UoWMS cohort (404 individuals, and 2,290 EDSS observations) included a nonlinear function of time since onset. Measurement error decreased over time and ad hoc methods reduced autocorrelation and the effect of relapse. Replication within the BCMS cohort (978 individuals and 7,335 EDSS observations) led to a model with similar time (years) coefficients, time [0.22 (95% confidence interval {CI}: 0.19, 0.26), 0.16 (95% CI: 0.10, 0.22)] and log time [-0.13 (95% CI: -0.39, 0.14), -0.15 (95% CI: -0.70, 0.40)] for BCMS and UoWMS, respectively.Conclusion
It is possible to develop robust models of disability progression for chronic disease. However, explicit validation is important given the complex methodological challenges faced.
SUBMITTER: Lawton M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4643305 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundThere is evidence that B cells play an important role in disease pathology of multiple sclerosis (MS). The aim of this prospective observational study was to determine the predictive value of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) B cell subtypes in disease evolution of patients with MS.Materials and methods128 patients were included between 2004 and 2012. Median follow up time was 7.9 years (range 3.3-10.8 years). 10 patients were lost to follow-up. 32 clinically isolated syndrome- (CIS), 25 relapsing remitting MS- (RRMS), 2 secondary progressive MS- (SPMS) and 9 primary progressive MS- (PPMS) patients were included. The control group consisted of 40 patients with other neurological diseases (OND). CSF samples were analyzed for routine diagnostic parameters. B cell phenotypes were characterized by flow cytometry using CD19 and CD138 specific antibodies. Standardized baseline brain MRI was conducted at the time of diagnostic lumbar puncture. Main outcome variables were likelihood of progressive disease course, EDSS progression, conversion to clinical definite MS (CDMS) and relapse rate.ResultsCSF mature B cells (CD19+CD138-) were increased in bout-onset MS compared to PPMS (p<0.05) and OND (p<0.001), whereas plasma blasts (CD19+CD138+) were increased in bout-onset MS (p<0.001) and PPMS (p<0.05) compared to OND. CSF B cells did not predict a progressive disease course, EDSS progression, an increased relapse rate or the conversion to CDMS. Likelihood of progressive disease course (p<0.05) and EDSS (p<0.01) was predicted by higher age at baseline, whereas conversion to CDMS was predicted by a lower age at onset (p<0.01) and the presence of ≥9 MRI T2 lesions (p<0.05).ConclusionWe detected significant differences in the CSF B cell subsets between different clinical MS subtypes and OND patients. CSF B cells were neither predictive for disease and EDSS progression nor conversion to CDMS after a CIS.
| S-EPMC5544180 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a neurodegenerative disease marked by chronic neuroinflammation thought to be mediated by the inflammasome pathway. Connexin 43 (Cx43) hemichannels contribute to the activation of the inflammasome through the release of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) inflammasome activation signals. The objective of the study was to evaluate if the Cx43 hemichannel blocker, tonabersat, is effective in modulating the inflammatory response and reducing disability in the myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein 35-55-induced experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (MOG35-55 EAE) model of MS. Here, we show that the Cx43 hemichannel blocking drug, tonabersat, significantly reduced expression of neuroinflammatory markers for microglial activation (ionized calcium-binding adapter molecule 1 (Iba1)) and astrogliosis (glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP)) while preserving myelin basic protein (MBP) expression levels in the corpus callosum, motor cortex, and striatum regions of the brain in MOG35-55 EAE mice. Reduced NOD-like receptor protein 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome complex assembly and Caspase-1 activation confirmed the drug's mode of action. MOG35-55 EAE mice showed clinical signs of MS, but MOG35-55 EAE mice treated with tonabersat retained behavior closer to normal. These data suggest that clinical trial phase IIb-ready tonabersat may merit further investigation as a promising candidate for MS treatment.
| S-EPMC10744318 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe pathophysiology of multiple sclerosis disease progression remains undetermined. The aim of this study was to identify differences in plasma proteome during different stages of MS disease progression.MethodsWe used a multiplex aptamer proteomics platform (Somalogic) for sensitive detection of 1129 proteins in plasma. MS patients were selected and categorized based on baseline and a 4-year follow-up EDSS (delta EDSS) scores; relapse-onset (RO) slow progression (n = 31), RO with rapid progression (n = 29), primary progressive (n = 30), and healthy controls (n = 20). The relation of baseline plasma protein levels with delta EDSS and different MRI progression parameters were assessed using linear regression models.ResultsRegression analyses of plasma proteins with delta EDSS showed six significant associations. Strong associations were found for the proteins LGLAS8 (P = 7.64 × 10-5 , q = 0.06), CCL3 (P = 0.0001, q = 0.06), and RGMA (P = 0.0005, q = 0.09). In addition, associations of plasma proteins were found with percentage brain volume for C3 (P = 2,08 × 10-9 , q = 1,70 × 10-6 ), FGF9 (P = 3,42 × 10-9 , q = 1,70 × 10-6 ), and EHMT2 (P = 0.0007, q = 0.01). Most of the significant markers were associated with cell-cell and cell-extracellular matrix adhesion, immune system communication, immune system activation, and complement pathways.ConclusionsOur results revealed eight novel biomarkers related to clinical and radiological progression in MS. These results indicate that changes in immune system, complement pathway and ECM remodeling proteins contribute to MS progression and may therefore be further explored for use in prognosis of MS.
| S-EPMC7651845 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and purposeDrugs able to counteract progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) represent a largely unmet therapeutic need. Even though the pathogenesis of disease evolution is still obscure, accumulating evidence indicates that mitochondrial dysfunction plays a causative role in neurodegeneration and axonopathy in progressive MS patients. Here, we investigated the effects of dexpramipexole, a compound with a good safety profile in humans and able to sustain mitochondria functioning and energy production, in a mouse model of progressive MS.Experimental approachFemale non-obese diabetic mice were immunized with MOG35-55 . Functional, immune and neuropathological parameters were analysed during disease evolution in animals treated or not with dexpramipexole. The compound's effects on bioenergetics and neuroprotection were also evaluated in vitro.Key resultsWe found that oral treatment with dexpramipexole at a dose consistent with that well tolerated in humans delayed disability progression, extended survival, counteracted reduction of spinal cord mitochondrial DNA content and reduced spinal cord axonal loss of mice. Accordingly, the drug sustained in vitro bioenergetics of mouse optic nerve and dorsal root ganglia and counteracted neurodegeneration of organotypic mouse cortical cultures exposed to the adenosine triphosphate-depleting agents oligomycin or veratridine. Dexpramipexole, however, was unable to affect the adaptive and innate immune responses both in vivo and in vitro.Conclusion and implicationThe present findings corroborate the hypothesis that neuroprotective agents may be of relevance to counteract MS progression and disclose the translational potential of dexpramipexole to treatment of progressive MS patients as a stand-alone or adjunctive therapy.
| S-EPMC7312322 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveRates of worsening and evolution to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) may be substantially lower in actively treated patients compared to natural history studies from the pretreatment era. Nonetheless, in our recently reported prospective cohort, more than half of patients with relapsing MS accumulated significant new disability by the 10th year of follow-up. Notably, "no evidence of disease activity" at 2 years did not predict long-term stability. Here, we determined to what extent clinical relapses and radiographic evidence of disease activity contribute to long-term disability accumulation.MethodsDisability progression was defined as an increase in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) of 1.5, 1.0, or 0.5 (or greater) from baseline EDSS = 0, 1.0-5.0, and 5.5 or higher, respectively, assessed from baseline to year 5 (±1 year) and sustained to year 10 (±1 year). Longitudinal analysis of relative brain volume loss used a linear mixed model with sex, age, disease duration, and HLA-DRB1*15:01 as covariates.ResultsRelapses were associated with a transient increase in disability over 1-year intervals (p = 0.012) but not with confirmed disability progression (p = 0.551). Relative brain volume declined at a greater rate among individuals with disability progression compared to those who remained stable (p < 0.05).InterpretationLong-term worsening is common in relapsing MS patients, is largely independent of relapse activity, and is associated with accelerated brain atrophy. We propose the term silent progression to describe the insidious disability that accrues in many patients who satisfy traditional criteria for relapsing-remitting MS. Ann Neurol 2019;85:653-666.
| S-EPMC6518998 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The negative impact of smoking in multiple sclerosis is well established; however, there is much less evidence as to whether smoking cessation is beneficial to progression in multiple sclerosis. Adults with multiple sclerosis registered on the United Kingdom Multiple Sclerosis Register (2011-20) formed this retrospective and prospective cohort study. Primary outcomes were changes in three patient-reported outcomes: normalized Multiple Sclerosis Physical Impact Scale (MSIS-29-Phys), normalized Multiple Sclerosis Walking Scale (MSWS-12) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Time to event outcomes were clinically significant increases in the patient-reported outcomes. The study included 7983 participants; 4130 (51.7%) of these had ever smoked, of whom 1315 (16.5%) were current smokers and 2815/4130 (68.2%) were former smokers. For all patient-reported outcomes, current smokers at the time of completing their first questionnaire had higher patient-reported outcomes scores indicating higher disability compared to those who had never smoked (∼10 points difference in MSIS-29-Phys and MSWS-12; 1.5-1.8 points for HADS-Anxiety and HADS-Depression). There was no improvement in patient-reported outcomes scores with increasing time since quitting in former smokers. Nine hundred and twenty-three participants formed the prospective parallel group, which demonstrated that MSIS-29-Phys [median (IQR) 5.03 (3.71, 6.34)], MSWS-12 [median (IQR) 5.28 (3.62, 6.94)] and HADS-Depression [median (IQR) 0.71 (0.47, 0.96)] scores worsened over a period of 4 years, whereas HADS-Anxiety remained stable. Smoking status was significant at Year 4; current smokers had higher MSIS-29-Phys and HADS-Anxiety scores [median (IQR) 3.05 (0.22, 5.88) and 1.14 (0.52, 1.76), respectively] while former smokers had a lower MSIS-29-Phys score of -2.91 (-5.03, -0.79). A total of 4642 participants comprised the time to event analysis. Still smoking was associated with a shorter time to worsening event in all patient-reported outcomes (MSIS-29-Phys: n = 4436, P = 0.0013; MSWS-12: n = 3902, P = 0.0061; HADS-Anxiety: n = 4511, P = 0.0017; HADS-Depression: n = 4511, P < 0.0001). Worsening in motor disability (MSIS-29-Phys and MSWS-12) was independent of baseline HADS-Anxiety and HADS-Depression scores. There was no statistically significant difference in the rate of worsening between never and former smokers. When smokers quit, there is a slowing in the rate of motor disability deterioration so that it matches the rate of motor decline in those who have never smoked. This suggests that smoking cessation is beneficial for people with multiple sclerosis.
| S-EPMC9128822 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAlthough confirmed disability progression (CDP) is a common outcome in multiple sclerosis (MS) clinical trials, its predictive value for long-term outcomes is uncertain.ObjectiveTo investigate whether CDP at month 24 predicts subsequent disability accumulation in MS.MethodsThe Comprehensive Longitudinal Investigation of Multiple Sclerosis at Brigham and Women's Hospital includes participants with relapsing-remitting MS or clinically isolated syndrome with Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores ≤5 (N = 1214). CDP was assessed as a predictor of time to EDSS score 6 (EDSS 6) and to secondary progressive MS (SPMS) using a Cox proportional hazards model; adjusted models included additional clinical/participant characteristics. Models were compared using Akaike's An Information Criterion.ResultsCDP was directionally associated with faster time to EDSS 6 in univariate analysis (HR = 1.61 [95% CI: 0.83, 3.13]). After adjusting for month 24 EDSS, CDP was directionally associated with slower time to EDSS 6 (adjusted HR = 0.65 [0.32, 1.28]). Models including CDP had worse fit statistics than those using EDSS scores without CDP. When models included clinical and magnetic resonance imaging measures, T2 lesion volume improved fit statistics. Results were similar for time to SPMS.ConclusionsCDP was less predictive of time to subsequent events than other MS clinical features.
| S-EPMC8042549 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimWe recently proposed miR-142-3p as a molecular player in inflammatory synaptopathy, a new pathogenic hallmark of multiple sclerosis (MS) and of its mouse model experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), that leads to neuronal loss independently of demyelination. MiR-142-3p seems to be unique among potential biomarker candidates in MS, since it is an inflammatory miRNA playing a dual role in the immune and central nervous systems. Here, we aimed to verify the impact of miR-142-3p circulating in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of MS patients on clinical parameters, neuronal excitability and its potential interaction with disease modifying therapies (DMTs).Methods and resultsIn a cohort of 151 MS patients, we found positive correlations between CSF miR-142-3p levels and clinical progression, IL-1β signalling as well as synaptic excitability measured by transcranial magnetic stimulation. Furthermore, therapy response of patients with 'low miR-142-3p' to dimethyl fumarate (DMF), an established disease-modifying treatment (DMT), was superior to that of patients with 'high miR-142-3p' levels. Accordingly, the EAE clinical course of heterozygous miR-142 mice was ameliorated by peripheral DMF treatment with a greater impact relative to their wild type littermates. In addition, a central protective effect of this drug was observed following intracerebroventricular and ex vivo acute treatments of EAE wild type mice, showing a rescue of miR-142-3p-dependent glutamatergic alterations. By means of electrophysiology, molecular and biochemical analysis, we suggest miR-142-3p as a molecular target of DMF.ConclusionMiR-142-3p is a novel and potential negative prognostic CSF marker of MS and a promising tool for identifying personalised therapies.
| S-EPMC9291627 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMultiple Sclerosis (MS) is an acquired inflammatory demyelinating disorder of the central nervous system (CNS) and is the leading cause of nontraumatic disability among young adults. Activated microglial cells are important effectors of demyelination and neurodegeneration, by secreting cytokines and others neurotoxic agents. Previous studies have demonstrated that microglia expresses ATP-sensitive potassium (KATP) channels and its pharmacological activation can provide neuroprotective and anti-inflammatory effects. In this study, we have examined the effect of oral administration of KATP channel opener diazoxide on induced experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), a mouse model of MS.MethodsAnti-inflammatory effects of diazoxide were studied on lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and interferon gamma (IFNγ)-activated microglial cells. EAE was induced in C57BL/6J mice by immunization with myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein peptide (MOG₃₅₋₅₅). Mice were orally treated daily with diazoxide or vehicle for 15 days from the day of EAE symptom onset. Treatment starting at the same time as immunization was also assayed. Clinical signs of EAE were monitored and histological studies were performed to analyze tissue damage, demyelination, glial reactivity, axonal loss, neuronal preservation and lymphocyte infiltration.ResultsDiazoxide inhibited in vitro nitric oxide (NO), tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) production and inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) expression by activated microglia without affecting cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) expression and phagocytosis. Oral treatment of mice with diazoxide ameliorated EAE clinical signs but did not prevent disease. Histological analysis demonstrated that diazoxide elicited a significant reduction in myelin and axonal loss accompanied by a decrease in glial activation and neuronal damage. Diazoxide did not affect the number of infiltrating lymphocytes positive for CD3 and CD20 in the spinal cord.ConclusionTaken together, these results demonstrate novel actions of diazoxide as an anti-inflammatory agent, which might contribute to its beneficial effects on EAE through neuroprotection. Treatment with this widely used and well-tolerated drug may be a useful therapeutic intervention in ameliorating MS disease.
| S-EPMC3215935 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objective: To investigate peripheral blood cell (PBCs) global gene expression profile of SSc at its preclinical stage (PreSSc) and to characterize the molecular changes associated with progression to a definite disease over time. Material and methods: Clinical data and PBCs of 33 participants with PreSSc and 16 healthy controls (HCs) were collected at baseline and follow-up (mean 4.2 years). Global gene expression profiling was conducted by RNA sequencing and a modular analysis was performed. Results: Comparison of baseline PreSSc to HCs revealed 2889 differentially expressed genes. Interferon signalling was the only activated pathway among top over-represented pathways. Moreover, 10 modules were significantly decreased in PreSSc samples (related to lymphoid lineage, cytotoxic/NK cell, and erythropoiesis) in comparison to HCs. At follow-up, 14 subjects (42.4%) presented signs of progression (evolving PreSSc) and 19 remained in stable preclinical stage (stable PreSSc). Progression was not associated with baseline clinical features or baseline PBC transcript modules. At follow-up stable PreSSc normalized their down-regulated cytotoxic/NK cell and protein synthesis modules while evolving PreSSc kept a down-regulation of cytotoxic/NK cell and protein synthesis modules. Transcript level changes of follow-up vs baseline in stable PreSSc vs evolving PreSSc showed 549 differentially expressed transcripts (336 up and 213 down) with upregulation of the EIF2 Signalling pathway. Conclusions: Participants with PreSSc had a distinct gene expression profile indicating that molecular differences at a transcriptomic level are al_x0002_ready present in the preclinical stages of SSc. Furthermore, a reduced NK signature in PBCs was related to SSc progression over time.
2023-09-13 | GSE224849 | GEO