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Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences.

ABSTRACT: Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoring.

SUBMITTER: Pirotta E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4650163 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences.

Pirotta Enrico E Harwood John J Thompson Paul M PM New Leslie L Cheney Barbara B Arso Monica M Hammond Philip S PS Donovan Carl C Lusseau David D

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20151101 1818

Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics aris ...[more]

PMID: 26511044

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Currently, the predominant onchocerciasis control strategy in Africa is annual mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. However, there is a consensus among the global health community, supported by mathematical modelling, that onchocerciasis in Africa will not be eliminated within proposed time frameworks in all endemic foci with only annual MDA, and novel and alternative strategies are urgently needed. Furthermore, use of MDA with ivermectin is already compromised in large areas of central Africa co-endemic with Loa loa, and there are areas where suboptimal or atypical responses to ivermectin have been documented. An onchocerciasis vaccine would be highly advantageous in these areas. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We used a previously developed onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO) to investigate the impact of vaccination in areas where loiasis and onchocerciasis are co-endemic and ivermectin is contraindicated. We also explore the potential influence of a vaccination programme on infection resurgence in areas where local elimination has been successfully achieved. Based on the age range included in the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI), the vaccine was assumed to target 1 to 5 year olds. Our modelling results indicate that the deployment of an onchocerciasis vaccine would have a beneficial impact in onchocerciasis-loiasis co-endemic areas, markedly reducing microfilarial load in the young (under 20 yr) age groups. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:An onchocerciasis prophylactic vaccine would reduce the onchocerciasis disease burden in populations where ivermectin cannot be administered safely. Moreover, a vaccine could substantially decrease the chance of re-emergence of Onchocerca volvulus infection in areas where it is deemed that MDA with ivermectin can be stopped. Therefore, a vaccine would protect the substantial investments made by present and past onchocerciasis control programmes, decreasing the chance of disease recrudescence and offering an important additional tool to mitigate the potentially devastating impact of emerging ivermectin resistance.

Project description:The long-term renal consequences of kidney donation by a living donor are attracting increased appropriate interest. The overall evidence suggests that living kidney donors have survival similar to that of nondonors and that their risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is not increased. Previous studies have included relatively small numbers of donors and a brief follow-up period.We ascertained the vital status and lifetime risk of ESRD in 3698 kidney donors who donated kidneys during the period from 1963 through 2007; from 2003 through 2007, we also measured the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and urinary albumin excretion and assessed the prevalence of hypertension, general health status, and quality of life in 255 donors.The survival of kidney donors was similar to that of controls who were matched for age, sex, and race or ethnic group. ESRD developed in 11 donors, a rate of 180 cases per million persons per year, as compared with a rate of 268 per million per year in the general population. At a mean (+/-SD) of 12.2+/-9.2 years after donation, 85.5% of the subgroup of 255 donors had a GFR of 60 ml per minute per 1.73 m(2) of body-surface area or higher, 32.1% had hypertension, and 12.7% had albuminuria. Older age and higher body-mass index, but not a longer time since donation, were associated with both a GFR that was lower than 60 ml per minute per 1.73 m(2) and hypertension. A longer time since donation, however, was independently associated with albuminuria. Most donors had quality-of-life scores that were better than population norms, and the prevalence of coexisting conditions was similar to that among controls from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) who were matched for age, sex, race or ethnic group, and body-mass index.Survival and the risk of ESRD in carefully screened kidney donors appear to be similar to those in the general population. Most donors who were studied had a preserved GFR, normal albumin excretion, and an excellent quality of life.

Project description:BackgroundOlder adults with atrial fibrillation (AF) have multiple risk factors for disablement. Long-term function and the contribution of strokes to disability have not been previously characterized. Our objective was to determine long-term function among older adults with AF and the relative contribution of stroke.MethodsWe used data from the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study (1992-2014) with participants ≥65 years with incident AF. We examined the association of incident stroke with three outcomes: independence with activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and residence outside a nursing home (community-dwelling). We fit logistic regression models with repeated measures adjusting for comorbidities and demographics to estimate the effect of stroke on function. We estimated the contribution of strokes to the overall population burden of disability using the method of recycled predictions.ResultsAmong 3530 participants (median age 79 years, 53% women), 262 had a stroke over 17,396 person-years. Independent of stroke and accounting for comorbidities, annually, ADL independence decreased by 4.4%, IADL independence decreased by 3.9%, and community dwelling decreased by 1.2% (p < 0.05 for all). Accounting for comorbidities, of those who experienced a stroke, 31.9% developed new ADL dependence, 26.5% developed new IADL dependence, and 8.6% newly moved to a nursing home (p < 0.05 for all). Considering all causes of function loss, 1.7% of ADL disability-years, 1.2% of IADL disability-years, and 7.3% of nursing home years could be attributed to stroke over 7.4 years.ConclusionOlder adults lose substantial function over time following AF diagnosis, independent of stroke. Stroke was associated with a significant functional decline and increase in the likelihood of nursing home move, but stroke did not accelerate subsequent disability accrual. Because of the high background rate of disability, stroke was not the dominant determinant of population-level disability in older adults with AF.

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Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences.

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Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences.

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