Dataset Information

Human Onchocerciasis: Modelling the Potential Long-term Consequences of a Vaccination Programme.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Currently, the predominant onchocerciasis control strategy in Africa is annual mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. However, there is a consensus among the global health community, supported by mathematical modelling, that onchocerciasis in Africa will not be eliminated within proposed time frameworks in all endemic foci with only annual MDA, and novel and alternative strategies are urgently needed. Furthermore, use of MDA with ivermectin is already compromised in large areas of central Africa co-endemic with Loa loa, and there are areas where suboptimal or atypical responses to ivermectin have been documented. An onchocerciasis vaccine would be highly advantageous in these areas. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We used a previously developed onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO) to investigate the impact of vaccination in areas where loiasis and onchocerciasis are co-endemic and ivermectin is contraindicated. We also explore the potential influence of a vaccination programme on infection resurgence in areas where local elimination has been successfully achieved. Based on the age range included in the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI), the vaccine was assumed to target 1 to 5 year olds. Our modelling results indicate that the deployment of an onchocerciasis vaccine would have a beneficial impact in onchocerciasis-loiasis co-endemic areas, markedly reducing microfilarial load in the young (under 20 yr) age groups. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:An onchocerciasis prophylactic vaccine would reduce the onchocerciasis disease burden in populations where ivermectin cannot be administered safely. Moreover, a vaccine could substantially decrease the chance of re-emergence of Onchocerca volvulus infection in areas where it is deemed that MDA with ivermectin can be stopped. Therefore, a vaccine would protect the substantial investments made by present and past onchocerciasis control programmes, decreasing the chance of disease recrudescence and offering an important additional tool to mitigate the potentially devastating impact of emerging ivermectin resistance.

SUBMITTER: Turner HC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4506122 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Human Onchocerciasis: Modelling the Potential Long-term Consequences of a Vaccination Programme.

Turner Hugo C HC Walker Martin M Lustigman Sara S Taylor David W DW Basáñez María-Gloria MG

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20150717 7

<h4>Background</h4>Currently, the predominant onchocerciasis control strategy in Africa is annual mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. However, there is a consensus among the global health community, supported by mathematical modelling, that onchocerciasis in Africa will not be eliminated within proposed time frameworks in all endemic foci with only annual MDA, and novel and alternative strategies are urgently needed. Furthermore, use of MDA with ivermectin is already compromised in l ...[more]

PMID: 26186715

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundRecent studies in Mali, Nigeria, and Senegal have indicated that annual (or biannual) ivermectin distribution may lead to local elimination of human onchocerciasis in certain African foci. Modelling-based projections have been used to estimate the required duration of ivermectin distribution to reach elimination. A crucial assumption has been that microfilarial production by Onchocerca volvulus is reduced irreversibly by 30-35% with each (annual) ivermectin round. However, other modelling-based analyses suggest that ivermectin may not have such a cumulative effect. Uncertainty in this (biological) and other (programmatic) assumptions would affect projected outcomes of long-term ivermectin treatment.Methodology/principal findingsWe modify a deterministic age- and sex-structured onchocerciasis transmission model, parameterised for savannah O. volvulus-Simulium damnosum, to explore the impact of assumptions regarding the effect of ivermectin on worm fertility and the patterns of treatment coverage compliance, and frequency on projections of parasitological outcomes due to long-term, mass ivermectin administration in hyperendemic areas. The projected impact of ivermectin distribution on onchocerciasis and the benefits of switching from annual to biannual distribution are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the drug's effect on worm fertility and on treatment compliance. If ivermectin does not have a cumulative impact on microfilarial production, elimination of onchocerciasis in hyperendemic areas may not be feasible with annual ivermectin distribution.Conclusions/significanceThere is substantial (biological and programmatic) uncertainty surrounding modelling projections of onchocerciasis elimination. These uncertainties need to be acknowledged for mathematical models to inform control policy reliably. Further research is needed to elucidate the effect of ivermectin on O. volvulus reproductive biology and quantify the patterns of coverage and compliance in treated communities.

Project description:In this paper, we review the published evidence about the long-term efficacy of the available human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines and their safety profile. Two prophylactic HPV vaccines - bivalent (bHPV) and quadrivalent (qHPV) - are now available, and vaccination programs are being widely implemented, primarily targeting adolescent girls. Efficacy has been widely demonstrated for both vaccines. Since the risk of HPV exposure potentially persists throughout a woman's sexual life, vaccine duration of protection is critical to overall effectiveness. Interpreting the results of long-term efficacy studies for the two HPV vaccines can be puzzling, due to the heterogeneity of studies, different methods used in the assessment of immunogenicity, histopathological and virological end points, and statistical power issues. Moreover, an immunologic correlate of protection has not yet been established, and it is unknown whether higher antibody levels will really result in a longer duration of protection. Disease prevention remains the most important measure of long-term duration of vaccine efficacy. To date, the longest follow-up of an HPV vaccine has been 9.4 years for the bHPV vaccine. Long-term follow-up for qHPV vaccine goes up to 8 years. The vaccine continues to be immunogenic and well tolerated up to 9 years following vaccination. All randomized controlled clinical trials of the bHPV and the qHPV vaccines provide evidence of an excellent safety profile. The most common complaint reported is pain in the injection site, which is self-limiting and spontaneously resolved. The incidence of systemic adverse events (AEs), serious AEs, and discontinuations due to a serious AE reported in clinical studies are similar between the two vaccines and their control groups. In particular, no increased risk of autoimmune disease has been shown among HPV-vaccinated subjects in long-term observation studies. As these are crucial topics in HPV vaccination, it is important to establish systems for continued monitoring of vaccine immunogenicity, efficacy, and safety over time.

Project description:The long-term renal consequences of kidney donation by a living donor are attracting increased appropriate interest. The overall evidence suggests that living kidney donors have survival similar to that of nondonors and that their risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is not increased. Previous studies have included relatively small numbers of donors and a brief follow-up period.We ascertained the vital status and lifetime risk of ESRD in 3698 kidney donors who donated kidneys during the period from 1963 through 2007; from 2003 through 2007, we also measured the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and urinary albumin excretion and assessed the prevalence of hypertension, general health status, and quality of life in 255 donors.The survival of kidney donors was similar to that of controls who were matched for age, sex, and race or ethnic group. ESRD developed in 11 donors, a rate of 180 cases per million persons per year, as compared with a rate of 268 per million per year in the general population. At a mean (+/-SD) of 12.2+/-9.2 years after donation, 85.5% of the subgroup of 255 donors had a GFR of 60 ml per minute per 1.73 m(2) of body-surface area or higher, 32.1% had hypertension, and 12.7% had albuminuria. Older age and higher body-mass index, but not a longer time since donation, were associated with both a GFR that was lower than 60 ml per minute per 1.73 m(2) and hypertension. A longer time since donation, however, was independently associated with albuminuria. Most donors had quality-of-life scores that were better than population norms, and the prevalence of coexisting conditions was similar to that among controls from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) who were matched for age, sex, race or ethnic group, and body-mass index.Survival and the risk of ESRD in carefully screened kidney donors appear to be similar to those in the general population. Most donors who were studied had a preserved GFR, normal albumin excretion, and an excellent quality of life.

Project description:Backgroundseasonal influenza in nursing homes is a major public health concern, since in EU 43,000 long term care (LTC) facilities host an estimated 2.9 million elderly residents. Despite specific vaccination campaigns, many outbreaks in such institutions are occasionally reported. We explored the dynamics of seasonal influenza starting from real data collected from a nursing home located in Italy and a mathematical model. Our aim was to identify the best vaccination strategy to minimize cases (and subsequent complications) among the guests.Materials and methodsafter producing the contact matrices with surveys of both the health care workers (HCW) and the guests, we developed a mathematical model of the disease. The model consists of a classical SEIR part describing the spreading of the influenza in the general population and a stochastic agent based model that formalizes the dynamics of the disease inside the institution. After a model fit of a baseline scenario, we explored the impact of varying the HCW and guests parameters (vaccine uptake and vaccine efficacy) on the guest attack rates (AR) of the nursing home.Resultsthe aggregate AR of influenza like illness in the nursing home was 36.4% (ward1 = 56%, ward2 = 33.3%, ward3 = 31.7%, ward4 = 34.5%). The model fit to data returned a probability of infection of the causal contact of 0.3 and of the shift change contact of 0.2. We noticed no decreasing or increasing AR trend when varying the HCW vaccine uptake and efficacy parameters, whereas the increase in both guests vaccine efficacy and uptake parameter was accompanied by a slight decrease in AR of all the wards of the LTC facility.Conclusionfrom our findings we can conclude that a nursing home is still an environment at high risk of influenza transmission but the shift change room and the handover situation carry no higher relative risk. Therefore, additional preventive measures in this circumstance may be unnecessary. In a closed environment such as a LTC facility, the vaccination of guests, rather than HCWs, may still represent the cornerstone of an effective preventive strategy. Finally, we think that the extensive inclusion of real life data into mathematical models is promising and may represent a starting point for further applications of this methodology.

Dataset Information

Human Onchocerciasis: Modelling the Potential Long-term Consequences of a Vaccination Programme.

Publications

Human Onchocerciasis: Modelling the Potential Long-term Consequences of a Vaccination Programme.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets