Dataset Information

Observed contrast changes in snow cover phenology in northern middle and high latitudes from 2001-2014.

ABSTRACT: Quantifying and attributing the phenological changes in snow cover are essential for meteorological, hydrological, ecological, and societal implications. However, snow cover phenology changes have not been well documented. Evidence from multiple satellite and reanalysis data from 2001 to 2014 points out that the snow end date (De) advanced by 5.11 (±2.20) days in northern high latitudes (52-75°N) and was delayed by 3.28 (±2.59) days in northern mid-latitudes (32-52°N) at the 90% confidence level. Dominated by changes in De, snow duration days (Dd) was shorter in duration by 5.57 (±2.55) days in high latitudes and longer by 9.74 (±2.58) days in mid-latitudes. Changes in De during the spring season were consistent with the spatiotemporal pattern of land surface albedo change. Decreased land surface temperature combined with increased precipitation in mid-latitudes and significantly increased land surface temperature in high latitudes, impacted by recent Pacific surface cooling, Arctic amplification and strengthening westerlies, result in contrasting changes in the Northern Hemisphere snow cover phenology. Changes in the snow cover phenology led to contrasting anomalies of snow radiative forcing, which is dominated by De and accounts for 51% of the total shortwave flux anomalies at the top of the atmosphere.

SUBMITTER: Chen X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4652201 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Observed contrast changes in snow cover phenology in northern middle and high latitudes from 2001-2014.

Chen Xiaona X Liang Shunlin S Cao Yunfeng Y He Tao T Wang Dongdong D

Scientific reports 20151119

Quantifying and attributing the phenological changes in snow cover are essential for meteorological, hydrological, ecological, and societal implications. However, snow cover phenology changes have not been well documented. Evidence from multiple satellite and reanalysis data from 2001 to 2014 points out that the snow end date (De) advanced by 5.11 (±2.20) days in northern high latitudes (52-75°N) and was delayed by 3.28 (±2.59) days in northern mid-latitudes (32-52°N) at the 90% confidence level ...[more]

PMID: 26581632

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Project description:ImportanceEvery year, respiratory viruses exact a heavy burden on Canadian hospitals during winter months. Generalizable seasonal patterns of respiratory virus transmission may estimate the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 or other emerging pathogens.ObjectiveTo describe the annual and biennial variation in respiratory virus seasonality in a northern climate.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study is an epidemiological assessment using population-based surveillance of patients with medically attended respiratory tract infection from 2005 through 2017 in Alberta, Canada. Incident cases of respiratory virus infection and infant respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalizations in Alberta were extracted from the Data Integration for Alberta Laboratories platform and Alberta Health Services Discharge Abstract Database, respectively. A deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible mathematical model with seasonal forcing function was fitted to the data for each virus. The possible future seasonal course of SARS-CoV-2 in northern latitudes was modeled on the basis of these observations. The analysis was conducted between December 15, 2020, and February 10, 2021.ExposuresSeasonal respiratory pathogens.Main outcomes and measuresIncidence (temporal pattern) of respiratory virus infections and RSV hospitalizations.ResultsA total of 37 719 incident infections with RSV, human metapneumovirus, or human coronaviruses 229E, NL63, OC43, or HKU1 among 35 375 patients (18 069 [51.1%] male; median [interquartile range], 1.29 [0.42-12.2] years) were documented. A susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model mirrored the epidemiological data, including a striking biennial variation with alternating severe and mild winter peaks. Qualitative description of the model and numerical simulations showed that strong seasonal contact rate and temporary immunity lasting 6 to 12 months were sufficient to explain biennial seasonality in these various respiratory viruses. The seasonality of 10 212 hospitalizations among children younger than 5 years with RSV was also explored. The median (interquartile range) rate of hospitalizations per 1000 live births was 18.6 (17.6-19.9) and 11.0 (10.4-11.7) in alternating even (severe) and odd (less-severe) seasons, respectively (P = .001). The hazard of admission was higher for children born in severe (even) seasons compared with those born in less-severe (odd) seasons (hazard ratio, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.61-1.75; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceIn this modeling study of respiratory viruses in Alberta, Canada, the seasonality followed a pattern estimated by simple mathematical models, which may be informative for anticipating future waves of pandemic SARS-CoV-2.

Dataset Information

Observed contrast changes in snow cover phenology in northern middle and high latitudes from 2001-2014.

Publications

Observed contrast changes in snow cover phenology in northern middle and high latitudes from 2001-2014.

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