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A preoperative personalized risk assessment calculator for elderly ovarian cancer patients undergoing primary cytoreductive surgery.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:Cytoreductive surgery for ovarian cancer has higher rates of postoperative complication than neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgery. If patients at high risk of postoperative complication were identified preoperatively, primary therapy could be tailored. Our objective was to develop a predictive model to estimate the risk of major postoperative complication after primary cytoreductive surgery among elderly ovarian cancer patients. METHODS:Patients who underwent primary surgery for ovarian cancer between 2005 and 2013 were identified from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Project. Patients were selected using primary procedure CPT codes. Major complications were defined as grade 3 or higher complications on the validated Claviden-Dindo scale. Using logistic regression, we identified demographic and clinical characteristics predictive of postoperative complication. RESULTS:We identified 2101 ovarian cancer patients of whom 35.9% were older than 65. Among women older than 65, the rate of major postoperative complication was 16.4%. Complications were directly associated with preoperative laboratory values (serum creatinine, platelets, white blood cell count, hematocrit), ascites, white race, and smoking status, and indirectly associated with albumin. Our predictive model had an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.725. In order to not deny patients necessary surgery, we chose a 50% population rate of postoperative complication which produced model sensitivity of 9.8% and specificity of 98%. DISCUSSION:Our predictive model uses easily and routinely obtained objective preoperative factors to estimate the risk of postoperative complication among elderly ovarian cancer patients. This information can be used to assess risk, manage postoperative expectations, and make decisions regarding initial treatment.

SUBMITTER: Barber EL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4679512 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A preoperative personalized risk assessment calculator for elderly ovarian cancer patients undergoing primary cytoreductive surgery.

Barber Emma L EL Rutstein Sarah S Miller William C WC Gehrig Paola A PA

Gynecologic oncology 20151023 3

<h4>Objective</h4>Cytoreductive surgery for ovarian cancer has higher rates of postoperative complication than neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgery. If patients at high risk of postoperative complication were identified preoperatively, primary therapy could be tailored. Our objective was to develop a predictive model to estimate the risk of major postoperative complication after primary cytoreductive surgery among elderly ovarian cancer patients.<h4>Methods</h4>Patients who underwent pri ...[more]

PMID: 26432038

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Project description:ObjectiveTo independently validate a published risk-calculator for adverse perioperative outcomes in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer undergoing debulking surgery at a high-volume surgical center.MethodsUsing our institution's curated prospective ovarian cancer database, we identified patients with epithelial ovarian cancer who underwent a debulking procedure from 7/2015 to 5/2019, to be used as the validation cohort. Variables used in the published nomogram were collected. These included American Society of Anesthesiology classification, preoperative albumin, history of bleeding disorder, presence of ascites on preoperative imaging, designation of elective or emergent surgery, age of the patient, and a procedure score. Patients were included if they had information available for all the variables used in the nomogram, and 30-day follow-up within our institution. The primary outcome was Clavien-Dindo Class IV with specific conditions (postoperative sepsis, septic shock, cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, pulmonary embolism, ventilation >48 h, or unplanned intubation) and 30-day mortality. The combination of these endpoints is called the combined complication rate.ResultsA total of 700 patients who underwent debulking surgery for epithelial ovarian cancer during the timeframe met inclusion criteria. The combined complication rate was 11.7%; 9.9% of patients were readmitted; 2.7% required reoperation. Sepsis was the most common primary endpoint complication (4.4%), followed by septic shock (1.4%). There was no 30-day mortality in our cohort. The nomogram performed well, with a c index of 0.715 (95% CI 0.66-0.768), which was comparable to the published nomogram.ConclusionsWe independently validated a complication nomogram at a high-volume surgical center. This nomogram performs well at predicting a lower likelihood of serious postoperative complications. An enhanced nomogram would help identify patients at higher risk for serious complications.

Project description:BACKGROUND: To evaluate surgical outcome and survival benefit after quaternary cytoreduction (QC) in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) relapse. METHODS: We systematically evaluated all consecutive patients undergoing QC in our institution over a 12-year period (October 2000-January 2012). All relevant surgical and clinical outcome parameters were systematically assessed. RESULTS: Forty-nine EOC patients (median age: 57; range: 28-76) underwent QC; in a median of 16 months (range:2-142) after previous chemotherapy. The majority of the patients had an initial FIGO stage III (67.3%), peritoneal carcinomatosis (77.6%) and no ascites (67.3%). At QC, patients presented following tumour pattern: lower abdomen 85.7%; middle abdomen 79.6% and upper abdomen 42.9%. Median duration of surgery was 292 min (range: a total macroscopic tumour clearance could be achieved. Rates of major operative morbidity and 30-day mortality were 28.6% and 2%, respectively.Mean follow-up from QC was 18.41 months (95% confidence interval (CI):12.64-24.18) and mean overall survival (OS) 23.05 months (95% CI: 15.5-30.6). Mean OS for patients without vs any tumour residuals was 43 months (95% CI: 26.4-59.5) vs 13.4 months (95% CI: 7.42-19.4); P=0.001. Mean OS for patients who received postoperative chemotherapy (n=18; 36.7%) vs those who did not was 40.5 months (95% CI: 27.4-53.6) vs 12.03 months (95% CI: 5.9-18.18); P<0.001.Multivariate analysis indentified multifocal tumour dissemination to be of predictive significance for incomplete tumour resection, higher operative morbidity and lower survival, while systemic chemotherapy subsequent to QC had a protective significant impact on OS. No prognostic impact had ascites, platinum resistance, high grading and advanced age. CONCLUSION: Even in this highly advanced setting of the third EOC relapse, maximal therapeutic effort combining optimal surgery and chemotherapy appear to significantly prolong survival in a selected patients 'group'.

Dataset Information

A preoperative personalized risk assessment calculator for elderly ovarian cancer patients undergoing primary cytoreductive surgery.

Publications

A preoperative personalized risk assessment calculator for elderly ovarian cancer patients undergoing primary cytoreductive surgery.

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