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Reduced vaccination and the risk of measles and other childhood infections post-Ebola.

ABSTRACT: The Ebola epidemic in West Africa has caused substantial morbidity and mortality. The outbreak has also disrupted health care services, including childhood vaccinations, creating a second public health crisis. We project that after 6 to 18 months of disruptions, a large connected cluster of children unvaccinated for measles will accumulate across Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. This pool of susceptibility increases the expected size of a regional measles outbreak from 127,000 to 227,000 cases after 18 months, resulting in 2000 to 16,000 additional deaths (comparable to the numbers of Ebola deaths reported thus far). There is a clear path to avoiding outbreaks of childhood vaccine-preventable diseases once the threat of Ebola begins to recede: an aggressive regional vaccination campaign aimed at age groups left unprotected because of health care disruptions.

SUBMITTER: Takahashi S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4691345 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Reduced vaccination and the risk of measles and other childhood infections post-Ebola.

Takahashi Saki S Metcalf C Jessica E CJ Ferrari Matthew J MJ Moss William J WJ Truelove Shaun A SA Tatem Andrew J AJ Grenfell Bryan T BT Lessler Justin J

Science (New York, N.Y.) 20150301 6227

The Ebola epidemic in West Africa has caused substantial morbidity and mortality. The outbreak has also disrupted health care services, including childhood vaccinations, creating a second public health crisis. We project that after 6 to 18 months of disruptions, a large connected cluster of children unvaccinated for measles will accumulate across Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. This pool of susceptibility increases the expected size of a regional measles outbreak from 127,000 to 227,000 cases ...[more]

PMID: 25766232

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Project description:Background:There is a global resurgence of measles, consequent upon worldwide stagnating measles vaccination coverage. The study aim was to document trends and characteristics of reported cases of measles, measles-related deaths, and measles vaccination coverage (MCV1-first dose of measles-containing vaccine and MCV2-second dose of measles-containing vaccine) at national and sub-national level in Myanmar over a five year period between 2014 and 2018. Methods:This was a descriptive study using routine data collected and submitted to the Expanded Programme on Immunization. Results:Between 2014 and 2018, there were 2673 measles cases of which 2272 (85%) occurred in 2017 and 2018. Five adjacent regions in lower Myanmar were the most affected: in 2017 and 2018, these regions reported 1647 (73%) of the 2272 measles cases in the country. Overall, 73% of measles cases were laboratory confirmed, 21% were epidemiologically linked, and 6% were clinically compatible (clinical diagnosis only), with more laboratory confirmed cases in recent years. Annual measles-related deaths were either zero or one except in 2016 when there were 21 deaths, all occurring in one remote village. In the recent years, the most commonly affected age groups were 0-8 months, 9 months to 4 years, and ??15 years. Among 1907 measles cases with known vaccination status, only 22% had been vaccinated and 70% of those had only received one dose of vaccine. Annual MCV1 coverage nationally varied from 83 to 93% while annual MCV2 coverage nationally varied from 78 to 87%, with no clear trends over the years. Between 2014 and 2018, a high proportion of the 330 townships had MCV coverage <?95%. Over 80% of measles cases were reported from townships that had MCV coverage <?95%. Conclusion:There have been a large number of measles cases in recent years associated with sub-optimal measles vaccine coverage. Myanmar has already conducted supplemental immunization activities in October and November, 2019. Myanmar also needs to improve routine immunization services and targeted responses to measles outbreaks.

Dataset Information

Reduced vaccination and the risk of measles and other childhood infections post-Ebola.

Publications

Reduced vaccination and the risk of measles and other childhood infections post-Ebola.

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