Dataset Information

A 'post-honeymoon' measles epidemic in Burundi: mathematical model-based analysis and implications for vaccination timing.

ABSTRACT: Using a mathematical model with realistic demography, we analyze a large outbreak of measles in Muyinga sector in rural Burundi in 1988-1989. We generate simulated epidemic curves and age × time epidemic surfaces, which we qualitatively and quantitatively compare with the data. Our findings suggest that supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) should be used in places where routine vaccination cannot keep up with the increasing numbers of susceptible individuals resulting from population growth or from logistical problems such as cold chain maintenance. We use the model to characterize the relationship between SIA frequency and SIA age range necessary to suppress measles outbreaks. If SIAs are less frequent, they must expand their target age range.

SUBMITTER: Corey KC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5028774 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

A 'post-honeymoon' measles epidemic in Burundi: mathematical model-based analysis and implications for vaccination timing.

Corey Katelyn C KC Noymer Andrew A

PeerJ 20160915

Using a mathematical model with realistic demography, we analyze a large outbreak of measles in Muyinga sector in rural Burundi in 1988-1989. We generate simulated epidemic curves and age × time epidemic surfaces, which we qualitatively and quantitatively compare with the data. Our findings suggest that supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) should be used in places where routine vaccination cannot keep up with the increasing numbers of susceptible individuals resulting from population gro ...[more]

PMID: 27672515

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundRoutine vaccination supplemented by planned campaigns occurring at 2-5 y intervals is the core of current measles control and elimination efforts. Yet, large, unexpected outbreaks still occur, even when control measures appear effective. Supplementing these activities with mass vaccination campaigns triggered when low levels of measles immunity are observed in a sample of the population (i.e., serosurveys) or incident measles cases occur may provide a way to limit the size of outbreaks.Methods and findingsMeasles incidence was simulated using stochastic age-structured epidemic models in settings conducive to high or low measles incidence, roughly reflecting demographic contexts and measles vaccination coverage of four heterogeneous countries: Nepal, Niger, Yemen, and Zambia. Uncertainty in underlying vaccination rates was modeled. Scenarios with case- or serosurvey-triggered campaigns reaching 20% of the susceptible population were compared to scenarios without triggered campaigns. The best performing of the tested case-triggered campaigns prevent an average of 28,613 (95% CI 25,722-31,505) cases over 15 y in our highest incidence setting and 599 (95% CI 464-735) cases in the lowest incidence setting. Serosurvey-triggered campaigns can prevent 89,173 (95% CI, 86,768-91,577) and 744 (612-876) cases, respectively, but are triggered yearly in high-incidence settings. Triggered campaigns reduce the highest cumulative incidence seen in simulations by up to 80%. While the scenarios considered in this strategic modeling exercise are reflective of real populations, the exact quantitative interpretation of the results is limited by the simplifications in country structure, vaccination policy, and surveillance system performance. Careful investigation into the cost-effectiveness in different contexts would be essential before moving forward with implementation.ConclusionsSerologically triggered campaigns could help prevent severe epidemics in the face of epidemiological and vaccination uncertainty. Hence, small-scale serology may serve as the basis for effective adaptive public health strategies, although, in high-incidence settings, case-triggered approaches are likely more efficient.

Project description:IntroductionOn-time measles vaccination is essential for preventing measles infection among children as early in life as possible, especially in areas where measles outbreaks occur frequently. Characterizing the timing of routine measles vaccination (MCV1) among children and identifying risk factors for delayed measles vaccination is important for addressing barriers to recommended childhood vaccination and increasing on-time MCV1 coverage. We aim to assess the timing of children's MCV1 vaccination and to investigate the association between demographic and healthcare factors, mothers'/caregivers' ability to identify information on their child's vaccination card, and achieving on-time (vs. delayed) MCV1 vaccination.MethodsWe conducted a population-based, door-to-door survey in Kampala, Uganda, from June-August of 2019. We surveyed mothers/caregivers of children aged one to five years to determine how familiar they were with their child's vaccination card and to determine their child's MCV1 vaccination status and timing. We assessed the proportion of children vaccinated for MCV1 on-time and delayed, and we evaluated the association between mothers'/caregivers' ability to identify key pieces of information (child's birth date, sex, and MCV1 date) on their child's vaccination card and achieving on-time MCV1 vaccination.ResultsOf the 999 mothers/caregivers enrolled, the median age was 27 years (17-50), and median child age was 29 months (12-72). Information on vaccination status was available for 66.0% (n = 659) of children. Of those who had documentation of MCV1 vaccination (n = 475), less than half (46.5%; n = 221) achieved on-time MCV1 vaccination and 53.5% (n = 254) were delayed. We found that only 47.9% (n = 264) of the 551 mothers/caregivers who were asked to identify key pieces of information on their child's vaccination card were able to identify the information, but ability to identify the key pieces of information on the card was not independently associated with achieving on-time MCV1 vaccination.ConclusionMothers'/caregivers' ability to identify key pieces of information on their child's vaccination card was not associated with achieving on-time MCV1 vaccination. Further research can shed light on interventions that may prompt or remind mothers/caregivers of the time and age when their child is due for measles vaccine to increase the chance of the child receiving it at the recommended time.

Dataset Information

A 'post-honeymoon' measles epidemic in Burundi: mathematical model-based analysis and implications for vaccination timing.

Publications

A 'post-honeymoon' measles epidemic in Burundi: mathematical model-based analysis and implications for vaccination timing.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets