Dataset Information

Predicting all-cause mortality from basic physiology in the Framingham Heart Study.

ABSTRACT: Using longitudinal data from a cohort of 1349 participants in the Framingham Heart Study, we show that as early as 28-38 years of age, almost 10% of variation in future lifespan can be predicted from simple clinical parameters. Specifically, we found diastolic and systolic blood pressure, blood glucose, weight, and body mass index (BMI) to be relevant to lifespan. These and similar parameters have been well-characterized as risk factors in the relatively narrow context of cardiovascular disease and mortality in middle to old age. In contrast, we demonstrate here that such measures can be used to predict all-cause mortality from mid-adulthood onward. Further, we find that different clinical measurements are predictive of lifespan in different age regimes. Specifically, blood pressure and BMI are predictive of all-cause mortality from ages 35 to 60, while blood glucose is predictive from ages 57 to 73. Moreover, we find that several of these parameters are best considered as measures of a rate of 'damage accrual', such that total historical exposure, rather than current measurement values, is the most relevant risk factor (as with pack-years of cigarette smoking). In short, we show that simple physiological measurements have broader lifespan-predictive value than indicated by previous work and that incorporating information from multiple time points can significantly increase that predictive capacity. In general, our results apply equally to both men and women, although some differences exist.

SUBMITTER: Zhang WB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4717277 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting all-cause mortality from basic physiology in the Framingham Heart Study.

Zhang William B WB Pincus Zachary Z

Aging cell 20151008 1

Using longitudinal data from a cohort of 1349 participants in the Framingham Heart Study, we show that as early as 28-38 years of age, almost 10% of variation in future lifespan can be predicted from simple clinical parameters. Specifically, we found diastolic and systolic blood pressure, blood glucose, weight, and body mass index (BMI) to be relevant to lifespan. These and similar parameters have been well-characterized as risk factors in the relatively narrow context of cardiovascular disease ...[more]

PMID: 26446764

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Project description:Background Biological mechanisms underlying the association of a healthy diet with chronic diseases remain unclear. Targeted proteomics may facilitate the understanding of mechanisms linking diet to chronic diseases. Methods and Results We examined 6360 participants (mean age 50 years; 54% women) in the Framingham Heart Study. The associations between diet and 71 cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related proteins were examined using 3 diet quality scores: the Alternate Healthy Eating Index, the modified Mediterranean-style Diet Score, and the modified Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension diet score. A mediation analysis was conducted to examine which proteins mediated the associations of diet with incident CVD and all-cause mortality. Thirty of the 71 proteins were associated with at least 1 diet quality score (P<0.0007) after adjustment for multiple covariates in all study participants and confirmed by an internal validation analysis. Gene ontology analysis identified inflammation-related pathways such as regulation of cell killing and neuroinflammatory response (Bonferroni corrected P<0.05). During a median follow-up of 13 years, we documented 512 deaths and 488 incident CVD events. Higher diet quality scores were associated with lower risk of CVD (P≤0.03) and mortality (P≤0.004). After adjusting for multiple potential confounders, 4 proteins (B2M [beta-2-microglobulin], GDF15 [growth differentiation factor 15], sICAM1 [soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1], and UCMGP [uncarboxylated matrix Gla-protein]) mediated the association between at least 1 diet quality score and all-cause mortality (median proportion of mediation ranged from 8.6% to 25.9%). We also observed that GDF15 mediated the association of the Alternate Healthy Eating Index with CVD (median proportion of mediation: 8.6%). Conclusions Diet quality is associated with new-onset CVD and mortality and with circulating CVD-related proteins. Several proteins appear to mediate the association of diet with these outcomes.

Dataset Information

Predicting all-cause mortality from basic physiology in the Framingham Heart Study.

Publications

Predicting all-cause mortality from basic physiology in the Framingham Heart Study.

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