Temporal trends in cause-specific mortality among individuals with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in the Framingham Heart Study.
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ABSTRACT: Background
All-cause mortality following atrial fibrillation (AF) has decreased over time. Data regarding temporal trends in causes of death among individuals with AF are scarce. The aim of our study was to analyze temporal trends in cause-specific mortality and predictors for cardiovascular (CVD) and non-CVD deaths among participants with incident AF in the Framingham Heart Study.Methods
We categorized all newly diagnosed AF cases according to age at AF diagnosis (< 70, 70 to < 80, and ≥ 80 years) and epoch of AF diagnosis (< 1990, 1990-2002, and ≥ 2003). We followed participants until death or the last follow-up. We categorized death causes into CVD, non-CVD, and unknown causes. For each age group, we tested for trends in the cumulative incidence of cause-specific death across epochs. We fit multivariable Fine-Gray models to assess subdistribution hazard ratios (HR) between clinical risk factors at AF diagnosis and cause-specific mortality.Results
We included 2125 newly diagnosed AF cases (mean age 75.5 years, 47.8% women). During a median follow-up of 4.8 years, 1657 individuals with AF died. There was evidence of decreasing CVD mortality among AF cases diagnosed < 70 years and 70 to < 80 years (ptrend < 0.001) but not ≥ 80 years (p = 0.76). Among the cases diagnosed < 70 years, the cumulative incidence of CVD death at 75 years was 67.7% in epoch 1 and 13.9% in epoch 3; among those 70 to < 80 years, the incidence at 85 years was 58.9% in epoch 1 and 18.9% in epoch 3. Advancing age (HR per 1 SD increase 6.33, 95% CI 5.44 to 7.37), prior heart failure (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.14-1.94), and prior myocardial infarction (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.15-1.80) were associated with increased rate of CVD death.Conclusions
In this community-based cohort, CVD mortality among AF cases decreased over time. Most deaths in individuals with AF are no longer CVD-related, regardless of age at AF diagnosis.
SUBMITTER: Kornej J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8320026 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundComprehensive long-term data on atrial fibrillation trends in men and women are scant. We aimed to provide such data through analysis of the Framingham cohort over 50 years.MethodsWe investigated trends in incidence, prevalence, and risk factors for atrial fibrillation and its association with stroke and mortality after onset in 9511 participants enrolled in the Framingham Heart Study between 1958 and 2007. We analysed trends within 10 year groups (1958-67, 1968-77, 1978-87, 1988-97, and 1998-2007), stratified by sex.FindingsDuring 50 years of observation (202,417 person-years), 1544 cases of new-onset atrial fibrillation occurred (of whom 723 [47%] were women). Between 1958-67 and 1998-2007, age-adjusted prevalence of atrial fibrillation quadrupled from 20·4 to 96·2 cases per 1000 person-years in men and from 13·7 to 49·4 cases per 1000 person-years in women; age-adjusted incidence increased from 3·7 to 13·4 new cases per 1000 person-years in men and from 2·5 to 8·6 new cases per 1000 person-years in women (ptrend<0·0001 for all comparisons). For atrial fibrillation diagnosed by electrocardiograph (ECG) during routine Framingham examinations, age-adjusted prevalence per 1000 person-years increased (12·6 in 1958-67 to 25·7 in 1998-2007 in men, ptrend=0·0007; 8·1 to 11·8 in women, ptrend=0·009). However, age-adjusted incidence of atrial fibrillation by Framingham Heart Study ECGs did not change significantly with time. Although the prevalence of most risk factors changed over time, their associated hazards for atrial fibrillation changed little. Multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models revealed a 74% (95% CI 50-86%) decrease in stroke (hazards ratio [HR] 3·77, 95% CI 1·98-7·20 in 1958-1967 compared with 1998-2007; ptrend=0·0001) and a 25% (95% CI -3-46%) decrease in mortality (HR 1·34, 95% CI 0·97-1·86 in 1958-1967 compared with 1998-2007; ptrend=0·003) in 20 years following atrial fibrillation onset.InterpretationTrends of increased incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the community were probably partly due to enhanced surveillance. Measures are needed to enhance early detection of atrial fibrillation, through increased awareness coupled with targeted screening programmes and risk factor-specific prevention.FundingNIH, NHLBI, NINDS, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.
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Project description:BackgroundPopulation-based studies of atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence are needed to inform health-service planning, but evidence is conflicting. We assessed trends of AF incidence in a large general population cohort from England.MethodsWe used linked primary and secondary electronic health records of 3.4 million individuals. Eligible patients aged 16 years and older contributed data between Jan 2 1998 and Dec 31 2017. For patients with incident AF, we extracted baseline characteristics, comorbidities, socioeconomic status and geographic region. We calculated standardised rates by applying direct age and sex standardisation to the 2013 European Standard Population. We applied year-specific, age-specific and sex-specific incidence to UK census mid-year population estimates for yearly total incident AF.FindingsComparing 2017 to 1998 standardised AF incidence increased by 30% (322 vs. 247 per 100 000 person-years; adjusted incidence ratio [IRR] 1·30, 95% CI 1·27-1·33). Absolute number of incident AF increased by 72% (202 333 vs. 117 880), due to an increasing number of older persons. Comorbidity burden at diagnosis of AF increased (3·74 [SD 2·29] vs 2·58 [1·83]; adjusted difference 1·26, 95% CI 1·14-1·39). The age of AF diagnosis declined in the most deprived individuals compared to the most affluent (adjusted difference 0·74 years, 0·62-0·88). Across the study period, age-standardised incidence was higher in men than women (IRR 1·49; 95% CI 1·46-1·52), and men were younger at diagnosis (adjusted difference 5·53 years; 95% CI 5·36 to 5·69). Socioeconomically deprived individuals had more comorbidities and a higher incidence of AF than the most affluent individuals (IRR 1·20; 95% CI 1·15-1·24).InterpretationIn England AF incidence has increased, and the socioeconomic gradient in age at diagnosis and comorbidity burden widened. This changing burden requires policy-based interventions to achieve health equity.FundingBritish Heart Foundation and National Institute for Health Research.
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