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Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming.

ABSTRACT: EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon rainfall are known to have an inverse relationship, which we have observed in the rainfall spectrum exhibiting a spectral dip in 3-5 y period band. It is well documented that El Nino events are known to be associated with deficit rainfall. Our analysis reveals that this spectral dip (3-5 y) is likely to shift to shorter periods (2.5-3 y) in future, suggesting a possible shift in the relationship between ENSO and monsoon rainfall. Spectral analysis of future climate projections by 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5) models are employed in order to corroborate our findings. Change in spectral dip speculates early occurrence of drought events in future due to multiple factors of global warming.

SUBMITTER: Azad S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4738276 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming.

Azad Sarita S Rajeevan M M

Scientific reports 20160203

EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon rainfall are known to have an inverse relationship, which we have observed in the rainfall spectrum exhibiting a spectral dip in 3-5 y period band. It is well documented that El Nino events are known to be associated with deficit rainfall. Our analysis reveals that this spectral dip (3-5 y) is likely to shift to shorter periods (2.5-3 y) in future, suggesting a possible shift in the relationship between ENSO and monsoon rainfall. Spectral an ...[more]

PMID: 26837459

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