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Restored relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall around 1999/2000.

ABSTRACT: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was identified as the dominant predictor for the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in the early 1900s. An apparent weakening of the ENSO-ISMR relationship has been observed since the 1970s. Here, we found a clear restoration of the ENSO-ISMR relationship since 1999/2000. This restoring relationship is closely linked to the interdecadal transition of ENSO evolution and the associated sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Atlantic. During 1979-1997, summer ENSO events mainly continued from the previous winter, which can drive apparent Atlantic Niña SSTAs to offset ENSO's impact on ISMR and weaken the ENSO-ISMR relationship. In contrast, when ENSO events newly emerge from late spring, as they have done more recently during 2000-2018, the associated tropical Atlantic SSTAs are weak and shift to the tropical North Atlantic, which can offset the contribution of Atlantic Niña and reinforce the ENSO-ISMR relationship. We identified that the diversity of ENSO's evolution, continuing from the previous winter or emerging from late spring, is the dominant factor perturbing the ENSO-ISMR relationship in recent epochs, with tropical Atlantic SSTAs as the crucial bridge. This finding should be considered in our efforts to improve ISMR prediction.

SUBMITTER: Yang X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8454755 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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