Spatiotemporal patterns of population in mainland China, 1990 to 2010.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Gaughan AE
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4755125 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Feb
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Spatiotemporal patterns of population in mainland China, 1990 to 2010.
Gaughan Andrea E AE Stevens Forrest R FR Huang Zhuojie Z Nieves Jeremiah J JJ Sorichetta Alessandro A Lai Shengjie S Ye Xinyue X Linard Catherine C Hornby Graeme M GM Hay Simon I SI Yu Hongjie H Tatem Andrew J AJ
Scientific data 20160216
According to UN forecasts, global population will increase to over 8 billion by 2025, with much of this anticipated population growth expected in urban areas. In China, the scale of urbanization has, and continues to be, unprecedented in terms of magnitude and rate of change. Since the late 1970s, the percentage of Chinese living in urban areas increased from ~18% to over 50%. To quantify these patterns spatially we use time-invariant or temporally-explicit data, including census data for 1990, ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:To determine the cause of a 2008 outbreak of aseptic meningitis in Shandong Province, China, we analyzed samples from outbreak patients and coxsackievirus B3 samples collected during 1990-2010 surveillance. The cause of the outbreak was coxsackievirus B3, genogroup D. Frequent travel might increase importation of other coxsackievirus B3 genogroups.
| S-EPMC3559141 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDramatic development and changes in lifestyle in many low and middle-income countries (LMIC) over the past three decades may have affected mental health of their populations. Being the largest country and having the most striking record of development, industrialization and urbanization, China provides an important opportunity for studying the nature and magnitude of possible effects.MethodsWe reviewed CNKI, WanFang and PubMed databases for epidemiological studies of schizophrenia in mainland China published between 1990 and 2010. We identified 42 studies that reported schizophrenia prevalence using internationally recognized diagnostic criteria, with breakdown by rural and urban residency. The analysis involved a total of 2 284 957 persons, with 10 506 diagnosed with schizophrenia. Bayesian methods were used to estimate the probability of case of schizophrenia ("prevalence") by type of residency in different years.FindingsIn urban China, lifetime prevalence was 0.39% (0.37-0.41%) in 1990, 0.57% (0.55-0.59%) in 2000 and 0.83% (0.75-0.91%) in 2010. In rural areas, the corresponding rates were 0.37% (0.34-0.40%), 0.43% (0.42-0.44%) and 0.50% (0.47-0.53%). In 1990 there were 3.09 (2.87-3.32) million people in China affected with schizophrenia during their lifetime. The number of cases rose to 7.16 (6.57-7.75) million in 2010, a 132% increase, while the total population increased by 18%. The contribution of cases from urban areas to the overall burden increased from 27% in 1990 to 62% in 2010.ConclusionsThe prevalence of schizophrenia in China has more than doubled between 1990 and 2010, with rates being particularly high in the most developed areas of modern China. This has broad implications, as the ongoing development in LMIC countries may be increasing the global prevalence of schizophrenia.
| S-EPMC4663755 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is known to be a highly contagious childhood illness. In recent years, the number of reported cases of HFMD has significantly increased in mainland China. This study aims at the epidemiological features, spatiotemporal patterns of HMFD at the county/district level in mainland China.MethodsData on reported HFMD cases for each county from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2012 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Cluster analysis, spatial autocorrelation, and retrospective scan methods were used to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of the disease.ResultsThe annual incidences varied greatly among the counties, ranging from 0 to 74.31‰ with the median of 5.42‰ (interquartile range: 1.54‰-13.55‰) during 2008-2012 in mainland China. Counties close to provincial capital cities generally had higher incidences than rural counties. A seasonal distribution was observed between the northern and southern China, of which dual epidemic were shown in southern China and usually only one in northern China. Based on the global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis, we found that the spatial distribution of HFMD was presented a significant clustering pattern for each year (P<0.001), and hotspots of the disease were mostly distributed in coastal provinces of China. The retrospective scan statistic further identified the dynamics of spatiotemporal clustering areas of the disease, which were mainly distributed in the counties of eastern and southern China, as well as provincial capitals and their surrounding counties.ConclusionsThe spatiotemporal clustering areas of the disease identified in this way were relatively stable, and imminent public health planning and resource allocation should be focused within those areas.
| S-EPMC4726594 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSince 1997, several countries within the Asian Pacific region have been affected by one or more massive outbreaks of Hand Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD). Virus typing experiments revealed that these outbreaks were caused by strains of human enterovirus 71 (EV71) belonging to several different, recently emerged subgenogroups. In mainland China, a different situation was observed. The first outbreak, localized in Shangdong Province, was reported in 2007, and was followed by a wide-spread outbreak in mainland China in 2008. Since then, numbers of reported HFMD cases have been persistently high.Methodology/principal findingsTo gain insight in the epidemiological behavior of EV71 in China, we studied genetic diversity and EV71 population dynamics to address whether the increase in number of reported EV71 infections reflects a real increase in viral spread or is just the result of increased awareness and surveillance. We used systematically collected VP1 gene sequences of 257 EV71 strains collected in Guangdong province from 2008 to 2010 as part of HFMD surveillance activities, and supplemented them with 305 GenBank EV71 reference stains collected in China from 1998 to 2010. All isolates from Guangdong Province belonged to subgenogroup C4. Viral population dynamics indicated that the increased reporting of HFMD in China since 2007 reflects a real increase in viral spread and continued replacement of viral lineages through time. Amino acid sequence comparisons revealed substitution of amino acid in residues 22, 145 and 289 through time regularly with the VP1 gene of EV71 strains isolated in mainland China from 1998 to 2010.ConclusionsEV71 strains isolated in mainland China mainly belonged to subgenogroup C4. There was exponential growth of the EV71 virus population in 2007 and 2008. There was amino acid substitution through time regularly with the VP1 gene which possibly increased viral spread and/or ability of the virus to circulate persistently among the Chinese population.
| S-EPMC3440427 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The purpose of this study is to characterize spatiotemporal heterogeneities in malaria distribution at a provincial level and investigate the association between malaria incidence and climate factors from 2004 to 2014 in China to inform current malaria control efforts. National malaria incidence peaked (4.6/100,000) in 2006 and decreased to a very low level (0.21/100,000) in 2014, and the proportion of imported cases increased from 16.2% in 2004 to 98.2% in 2014. Statistical analyses of global and local spatial autocorrelations and purely spatial scan statistics revealed that malaria was localized in Hainan, Anhui, and Yunnan during 2004-2009 and then gradually shifted and clustered in Yunnan after 2010. Purely temporal clusters shortened to less than 5 months during 2012-2014. The two most likely clusters detected using spatiotemporal analysis occurred in Anhui between July 2005 and November 2007 and Yunnan between January 2010 and June 2012. Correlation coefficients for the association between malaria incidence and climate factors sharply decreased after 2010, and there were zero-month lag effects for climate factors during 2010-2014. Overall, the spatiotemporal distribution of malaria in China changed from relatively scattered (2004-2009) to relatively clustered (2010-2014). As the proportion of imported cases increased, the effect of climate factors on malaria incidence has gradually become weaker since 2011. Therefore, new warning systems should be applied to monitor resurgence and outbreaks of malaria in mainland China, and quarantine at borders should be reinforced to control the increasingly trend of imported malaria cases.
| S-EPMC5544075 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundScrub typhus is endemic in the Asia-Pacific region including China, and the number of reported cases has increased dramatically in the past decade. However, the spatial-temporal dynamics and the potential risk factors in transmission of scrub typhus in mainland China have yet to be characterized.ObjectiveThis study aims to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of reported scrub typhus cases in mainland China between January 2006 and December 2014, to detect the location of high risk spatiotemporal clusters of scrub typhus cases, and identify the potential risk factors affecting the re-emergence of the disease.MethodMonthly cases of scrub typhus reported at the county level between 2006 and 2014 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. Time-series analyses, spatiotemporal cluster analyses, and spatial scan statistics were used to explore the characteristics of the scrub typhus incidence. To explore the association between scrub typhus incidence and environmental variables panel Poisson regression analysis was conducted.ResultsDuring the time period between 2006 and 2014 a total of 54,558 scrub typhus cases were reported in mainland China, which grew exponentially. The majority of cases were reported each year between July and November, with peak incidence during October every year. The spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus varied over the study period with high-risk clusters identified in southwest, southern, and middle-eastern part of China. Scrub typhus incidence was positively correlated with the percentage of shrub and meteorological variables including temperature and precipitation.ConclusionsThe results of this study demonstrate areas in China that could be targeted with public health interventions to mitigate the growing threat of scrub typhus in the country.
| S-EPMC4968795 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesChina has experienced a sharply increasing rate of human brucellosis in recent years. Effective spatial monitoring of human brucellosis incidence is very important for successful implementation of control and prevention programmes. The purpose of this paper is to apply exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) methods and the empirical Bayes (EB) smoothing technique to monitor county-level incidence rates for human brucellosis in mainland China from 2004 to 2010 by examining spatial patterns.MethodsESDA methods were used to characterise spatial patterns of EB smoothed incidence rates for human brucellosis based on county-level data obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP) in mainland China from 2004 to 2010.ResultsEB smoothed incidence rates for human brucellosis were spatially dependent during 2004-2010. The local Moran test identified significantly high-risk clusters of human brucellosis (all p values <0.01), which persisted during the 7-year study period. High-risk counties were centred in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and other Northern provinces (ie, Hebei, Shanxi, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces) around the border with the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region where animal husbandry was highly developed. The number of high-risk counties increased from 25 in 2004 to 54 in 2010.ConclusionsESDA methods and the EB smoothing technique can assist public health officials in identifying high-risk areas. Allocating more resources to high-risk areas is an effective way to reduce human brucellosis incidence.
| S-EPMC3987733 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundColorectal cancer (CRC) mortality has declined in the United States, in part because of advances in treatment. Few studies have evaluated the adoption of therapies and temporal changes in patterns of care.MethodsPatients age 20 years and older diagnosed with stages II/III CRC were randomly sampled from the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program in 1990-1991, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010 (n = 7057). Therapy was obtained from medical records and physician verification. We described the receipt of chemotherapy and radiation therapy. Log-binomial regression was used to examine factors associated with therapy. All statistical tests were two-sided.ResultsChemotherapy receipt among colon cancer patients increased from 1990 (stage II: 22.5%; stage III: 56.3%) to 2005 (stage II: 32.1%; stage III: 72.4%) and declined slightly in 2010 (stage II: 29.3%; stage III: 66.4%). Stage III colon cancer patients who were older (vs <55 years, 75-79 years: risk ratio [RR] 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.71 to 0.91; ≥80 years: RR = 0.37, 95% CI = 0.28 to 0.47) or had a comorbidity score of 2 or higher (vs 0, RR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.35 to 0.87) received chemotherapy less often. Receipt of radiation therapy by rectal cancer patients increased across all years from 45.5% to 66.1%. Increasing age (vs <55 years, 75-79 years: RR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.47 to 0.74; ≥80 years: RR = 0.33, 95% CI = 0.25 to 0.45) was associated with lower chemoradiation use among stage II/III rectal cancer patients.ConclusionOur findings demonstrate increased adoption of chemotherapy and radiation therapy for colon and rectal cancer patients and differences in therapy by age, comorbidity, and diagnosis year. Increased receipt of these therapies in the community may further reduce CRC mortality.
| S-EPMC4840367 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, including Shanghai City and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces, is the largest metropolitan region in China. In the past three decades, the region has experienced an unprecedented process of rapid and massive urbanization, which has dramatically altered the landscape and detrimentally affected the ecological environments in the region. In this paper, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of ecological conditions (Eco_C) via a synthetic index with analytic hierarchy processes in the YRD during 1990?2010. The relative contributions of influencing factors, including two natural conditions (i.e., elevation (Elev) and land-sea gradient (Dis_coa)), three indicators of human activities (i.e., urbanization rate (Urb_rate), per capita GDP (Per_gdp), the percentage of secondary and tertiary industry employment (Per_ind)), to the total variance of regional Eco_C were also investigated. The results showed that: (1) The Eco_C over YRD region was "Moderately High", which was better than the national average and demonstrated obvious spatial variations between south and north. There existed fluctuations and an overall increasing trend for Eco_C during the study period, with 20% of the area being deteriorated and 40% being improved. (2) The areas with elevation below 10 m was relatively poor in Eco_C, while the regions above 1000 m showed the best Eco_C and had the most obvious changes (9.33%) during the study period. (3) The selected five influencing factors could explain 91.0?94.4% of the Eco_C spatial variability. Elevation was the dominant factor for about 42.4?52.9%, while urbanization rate and per capita GDP were about 32.5% and 9.3%.
| S-EPMC6313723 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundChina has undergone rapid demographic and epidemiological changes in the past few decades, including striking declines in fertility and child mortality and increases in life expectancy at birth. Popular discontent with the health system has led to major reforms. To help inform these reforms, we did a comprehensive assessment of disease burden in China, how it changed between 1990 and 2010, and how China's health burden compares with other nations.MethodsWe used results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) for 1990 and 2010 for China and 18 other countries in the G20 to assess rates and trends in mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We present results for 231 diseases and injuries and for 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors relevant to China. We assessed relative performance of China against G20 countries (significantly better, worse, or indistinguishable from the G20 mean) with age-standardised rates and 95% uncertainty intervals.FindingsThe leading causes of death in China in 2010 were stroke (1·7 million deaths, 95% UI 1·5-1·8 million), ischaemic heart disease (948,700 deaths, 774,500-1,024,600), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (934,000 deaths, 846,600-1,032,300). Age-standardised YLLs in China were lower in 2010 than all emerging economies in the G20, and only slightly higher than noted in the USA. China had the lowest age-standardised YLD rate in the G20 in 2010. China also ranked tenth (95% UI eighth to tenth) for HALE and 12th (11th to 13th) for life expectancy. YLLs from neonatal causes, infectious diseases, and injuries in children declined substantially between 1990 and 2010. Mental and behavioural disorders, substance use disorders, and musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for almost half of all YLDs. The fraction of DALYs from YLDs rose from 28·1% (95% UI 24·2-32·5) in 1990 to 39·4% (34·9-43·8) in 2010. Leading causes of DALYs in 2010 were cardiovascular diseases (stroke and ischaemic heart disease), cancers (lung and liver cancer), low back pain, and depression. Dietary risk factors, high blood pressure, and tobacco exposure are the risk factors that constituted the largest number of attributable DALYs in China. Ambient air pollution ranked fourth (third to fifth; the second highest in the G20) and household air pollution ranked fifth (fourth to sixth; the third highest in the G20) in terms of the age-standardised DALY rate in 2010.InterpretationThe rapid rise of non-communicable diseases driven by urbanisation, rising incomes, and ageing poses major challenges for China's health system, as does a shift to chronic disability. Reduction of population exposures from poor diet, high blood pressure, tobacco use, cholesterol, and fasting blood glucose are public policy priorities for China, as are the control of ambient and household air pollution. These changes will require an integrated government response to improve primary care and undertake required multisectoral action to tackle key risks. Analyses of disease burden provide a useful framework to guide policy responses to the changing disease spectrum in China.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC7159289 | biostudies-literature