Demographic buffering and compensatory recruitment promotes the persistence of disease in a wildlife population.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: McDonald JL
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4790914 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Population reduction is often used as a control strategy when managing infectious diseases in wildlife populations in order to reduce host density below a critical threshold. However, population reduction can disrupt existing social and demographic structures leading to changes in observed host behaviour that may result in enhanced disease transmission. Such effects have been observed in several disease systems, notably badgers and bovine tuberculosis. Here we characterise the fundamental properties of disease systems for which such effects undermine the disease control benefits of population reduction. By quantifying the size of response to population reduction in terms of enhanced transmission within a generic non-spatial model, the properties of disease systems in which such effects reduce or even reverse the disease control benefits of population reduction are identified. If population reduction is not sufficiently severe, then enhanced transmission can lead to the counter intuitive perturbation effect, whereby disease levels increase or persist where they would otherwise die out. Perturbation effects are largest for systems with low levels of disease, e.g. low levels of endemicity or emerging disease. Analysis of a stochastic spatial meta-population model of demography and disease dynamics leads to qualitatively similar conclusions. Moreover, enhanced transmission itself is found to arise as an emergent property of density dependent dispersal in such systems. This spatial analysis also shows that, below some threshold, population reduction can rapidly increase the area affected by disease, potentially expanding risks to sympatric species. Our results suggest that the impact of population reduction on social and demographic structures is likely to undermine disease control in many systems, and in severe cases leads to the perturbation effect. Social and demographic mechanisms that enhance transmission following population reduction should therefore be routinely considered when designing control programmes.
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Project description:Infectious diseases raise many concerns for wildlife and new insights must be gained to manage infected populations. Wild ungulates provide opportunities to gain such insights as they host many pathogens. Using modelling and data collected from an intensively monitored population of Pyrenean chamois, we investigated the role of stochastic processes in governing epidemiological patterns of pestivirus spread in both protected and hunted populations. We showed that demographic stochasticity led to three epidemiological outcomes: early infection fade-out, epidemic outbreaks with population collapse, either followed by virus extinction or by endemic situations. Without re-introduction, the virus faded out in >50% of replications within 4 years and did not persist >20 years. Test-and-cull of infected animals and vaccination had limited effects relative to the efforts devoted, especially in hunted populations in which only quota reduction somewhat improve population recovery. Success of these strategies also relied on the maintenance of a high level of surveillance of hunter-harvested animals. Our findings suggested that, while surveillance and maintenance of population levels at intermediate densities to avoid large epidemics are useful at any time, a 'do nothing' approach during epidemics could be the 'least bad' management strategy in populations of ungulates species facing pestivirus infection.
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Project description:Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal disease of deer, elk, and moose transmitted through direct, animal-to-animal contact, and indirectly, via environmental contamination. Considerable attention has been paid to modeling direct transmission, but despite the fact that CWD prions can remain infectious in the environment for years, relatively little information exists about the potential effects of indirect transmission on CWD dynamics. In the present study, we use simulation models to demonstrate how indirect transmission and the duration of environmental prion persistence may affect epidemics of CWD and populations of North American deer. Existing data from Colorado, Wyoming, and Wisconsin's CWD epidemics were used to define plausible short-term outcomes and associated parameter spaces. Resulting long-term outcomes range from relatively low disease prevalence and limited host-population decline to host-population collapse and extinction. Our models suggest that disease prevalence and the severity of population decline is driven by the duration that prions remain infectious in the environment. Despite relatively low epidemic growth rates, the basic reproductive number, R(0), may be much larger than expected under the direct-transmission paradigm because the infectious period can vastly exceed the host's life span. High prion persistence is expected to lead to an increasing environmental pool of prions during the early phases (i.e. approximately during the first 50 years) of the epidemic. As a consequence, over this period of time, disease dynamics will become more heavily influenced by indirect transmission, which may explain some of the observed regional differences in age and sex-specific disease patterns. This suggests management interventions, such as culling or vaccination, will become increasingly less effective as CWD epidemics progress.
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Project description:Serengeti lions frequently experience viral outbreaks. In 1994, one-third of Serengeti lions died from canine distemper virus (CDV). Based on the limited epidemiological data available from this period, it has been unclear whether the 1994 outbreak was propagated by lion-to-lion transmission alone or involved multiple introductions from other sympatric carnivore species. More broadly, we do not know whether contacts between lions allow any pathogen with a relatively short infectious period to percolate through the population (i.e. reach epidemic proportions). We built one of the most realistic contact network models for a wildlife population to date, based on detailed behavioural and movement data from a long-term lion study population. The model allowed us to identify previously unrecognized biases in the sparse data from the 1994 outbreak and develop methods for judiciously inferring disease dynamics from typical wildlife samples. Our analysis of the model in light of the 1994 outbreak data strongly suggest that, although lions are sufficiently well connected to sustain epidemics of CDV-like diseases, the 1994 epidemic was fuelled by multiple spillovers from other carnivore species, such as jackals and hyenas.
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Project description:Staphylococcus aureus is a leading cause of human prosthetic joint infections (PJIs) typified by biofilm formation. We recently identified a critical role for myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs) in S. aureus biofilm persistence. Proinflammatory signals induce MDSC recruitment and activation in tumor models; however, the mechanisms responsible for MDSC homing to sites of biofilm infection are unknown. In this study, we report that several cytokines (IL-12p40, IL-1?, TNF-?, and G-CSF) and chemokines (CXCL2, CCL5) were significantly elevated in a mouse model of S. aureus PJI. This coincided with significantly increased MDSC infiltrates concomitant with reduced monocyte, macrophage, and T cell influx compared with uninfected animals. Of the cytokines detected, IL-12 was of particular interest based on its ability to possess either pro- or anti-inflammatory effects mediated through p35-p40 heterodimers or p40 homodimers, respectively. MDSC recruitment was significantly reduced in both p40 and p35 knockout mice, which resulted in enhanced monocyte and neutrophil influx and bacterial clearance. Adoptive transfer of wild-type MDSCs into infected p40 knockout animals worsened disease outcome, as evidenced by the return of S. aureus burdens to levels typical of wild-type mice. Tissues obtained from patients undergoing revision surgery for PJI revealed similar patterns of immune cell influx, with increased MDSC-like cells and significantly fewer T cells compared with aseptic revisions. These findings reveal a critical role for IL-12 in shaping the anti-inflammatory biofilm milieu by promoting MDSC recruitment.
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Project description:Facilitating coexistence between people and wildlife is a major conservation challenge in East Africa. Some conservation models aim to balance the needs of people and wildlife, but the effectiveness of these models is rarely assessed. Using a case-study approach, we assessed the ecological performance of a pastoral area in northern Tanzania (Manyara Ranch) and established a long-term wildlife population monitoring program (carried out intermittently from 2003 to 2008 and regularly from 2011 to 2019) embedded in a distance sampling framework. By comparing density estimates of the road transect-based long-term monitoring to estimates derived from systematically distributed transects, we found that the bias associated with nonrandom placement of transects was nonsignificant. Overall, cattle and sheep and goat reached the greatest densities and several wildlife species occurred at densities similar (zebra, wildebeest, waterbuck, Kirk's dik-dik) or possibly even greater (giraffe, eland, lesser kudu, Grant's gazelle, Thomson's gazelle) than in adjacent national parks in the same ecosystem. Generalized linear mixed models suggested that most wildlife species (8 out of 14) reached greatest densities during the dry season, that wildlife population densities either remained constant or increased over the 17-year period, and that herbivorous livestock species remained constant, while domestic dog population decreased over time. Cross-species correlations did not provide evidence for interference competition between grazing or mixed livestock species and wildlife species but indicate possible negative relationships between domestic dog and warthog populations. Overall, wildlife and livestock populations in Manyara Ranch appear to coexist over the 17-year span. Most likely, this is facilitated by existing connectivity to adjacent protected areas, effective anti-poaching efforts, spatio-temporal grazing restrictions, favorable environmental conditions of the ranch, and spatial heterogeneity of surface water and habitats. This long-term case study illustrates the potential of rangelands to simultaneously support wildlife conservation and human livelihood goals if livestock grazing is restricted in space, time, and numbers.
| S-EPMC7520174 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Demographic factors are fundamental in shaping infectious disease dynamics. Aspects of populations that create structure, like age and sex, can affect patterns of transmission, infection intensity and population outcomes. However, studies rarely link these processes from individual to population-scale effects. Moreover, the mechanisms underlying demographic differences in disease are frequently unclear. Here, we explore sex-biased infections for a multi-host fungal disease of bats, white-nose syndrome, and link disease-associated mortality between sexes, the distortion of sex ratios and the potential mechanisms underlying sex differences in infection. We collected data on host traits, infection intensity and survival of five bat species at 42 sites across seven years. We found females were more infected than males for all five species. Females also had lower apparent survival over winter and accounted for a smaller proportion of populations over time. Notably, female-biased infections were evident by early hibernation and likely driven by sex-based differences in autumn mating behaviour. Male bats were more active during autumn which likely reduced replication of the cool-growing fungus. Higher disease impacts in female bats may have cascading effects on bat populations beyond the hibernation season by limiting recruitment and increasing the risk of Allee effects.
| S-EPMC10031401 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Host demography can alter the dynamics of infectious disease. In the case of perfectly immunizing infections, observations of strong sensitivity to demographic variation have been mechanistically explained through analysis of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that assumes lifelong immunity following recovery from infection. When imperfect immunity is incorporated into this framework via the susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model, with individuals regaining full susceptibility following recovery, we show that rapid loss of immunity is predicted to buffer populations against the effects of demographic change. However, this buffering is contrary to the dependence on demography recently observed for partially immunizing infections such as rotavirus and respiratory syncytial virus. We show that this discrepancy arises from a key simplification embedded in the SIR(S) framework, namely that the potential for differential immune responses to repeat exposures is ignored. We explore the minimum additional immunological information that must be included to reflect the range of observed dependencies on demography. We show that including partial protection and lower transmission following primary infection is sufficient to capture more realistic reduced levels of buffering, in addition to changes in epidemic timing, across a range of partially and fully immunizing infections. Furthermore, our results identify key variables in this relationship, including R0.
| S-EPMC4345488 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe degree to which individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) evidence impairments in episodic memory relative to their typically developing (TD) counterparts remains unclear. According to a prominent view, ASD is associated with deficits in encoding associations between items and recollecting precise context details. Here, we evaluated behavioral and neural evidence for this impaired relational binding hypothesis using a task involving relational encoding and recollection during functional magnetic resonance imaging.MethodsAdolescents and young adults (nASD = 47, nTD = 60) performed the Relational and Item-Specific Encoding task during functional magnetic resonance imaging, including item and associative recognition testing. We modeled functional recruitment within the medial temporal lobes (MTLs), and connectivity between MTL and the posterior medial (PM) network thought to underlie relational memory. The impaired relational binding model would predict a behavioral deficit driven by aberrant recruitment and connectivity of MTL and the PM network.ResultsThe ASD and TD groups showed indistinguishable item and associative recognition performance. During relational encoding, the ASD group demonstrated increased hippocampal recruitment, and decreased connectivity between MTL and PM regions relative to the TD group. Within ASD, hippocampal recruitment and MTL-PM connectivity were inversely correlated.ConclusionsThe lack of a behavioral deficit in ASD does not support the impaired relational binding hypothesis. Instead, the current data suggest that increased recruitment of the hippocampus compensates for decreased MTL-PM connectivity to support preserved episodic memory in ASD. These findings suggest a compensatory neurodevelopmental mechanism that may support preserved cognitive domains in ASD: local hyperrecruitment may offset connectivity aberrations in individuals with ASD relative to TD subjects.
| S-EPMC6954323 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Carcass persistence time and detectability are two main sources of uncertainty on roadkill surveys. In this study, we evaluate the influence of these uncertainties on roadkill surveys and estimates. To estimate carcass persistence time, three observers (including the driver) surveyed 114km by car on a monthly basis for two years, searching for wildlife-vehicle collisions (WVC). Each survey consisted of five consecutive days. To estimate carcass detectability, we randomly selected stretches of 500m to be also surveyed on foot by two other observers (total 292 walked stretches, 146 km walked). We expected that body size of the carcass, road type, presence of scavengers and weather conditions to be the main drivers influencing the carcass persistence times, but their relative importance was unknown. We also expected detectability to be highly dependent on body size. Overall, we recorded low median persistence times (one day) and low detectability (<10%) for all vertebrates. The results indicate that body size and landscape cover (as a surrogate of scavengers' presence) are the major drivers of carcass persistence. Detectability was lower for animals with body mass less than 100g when compared to carcass with higher body mass. We estimated that our recorded mortality rates underestimated actual values of mortality by 2-10 fold. Although persistence times were similar to previous studies, the detectability rates here described are very different from previous studies. The results suggest that detectability is the main source of bias across WVC studies. Therefore, more than persistence times, studies should carefully account for differing detectability when comparing WVC studies.
| S-EPMC5091900 | biostudies-literature