Demographic stochasticity drives epidemiological patterns in wildlife with implications for diseases and population management.

ABSTRACT: Infectious diseases raise many concerns for wildlife and new insights must be gained to manage infected populations. Wild ungulates provide opportunities to gain such insights as they host many pathogens. Using modelling and data collected from an intensively monitored population of Pyrenean chamois, we investigated the role of stochastic processes in governing epidemiological patterns of pestivirus spread in both protected and hunted populations. We showed that demographic stochasticity led to three epidemiological outcomes: early infection fade-out, epidemic outbreaks with population collapse, either followed by virus extinction or by endemic situations. Without re-introduction, the virus faded out in >50% of replications within 4 years and did not persist >20 years. Test-and-cull of inf

SUBMITTER: Lambert S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6237989 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature