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Demographic stochasticity drives epidemiological patterns in wildlife with implications for diseases and population management.

ABSTRACT: Infectious diseases raise many concerns for wildlife and new insights must be gained to manage infected populations. Wild ungulates provide opportunities to gain such insights as they host many pathogens. Using modelling and data collected from an intensively monitored population of Pyrenean chamois, we investigated the role of stochastic processes in governing epidemiological patterns of pestivirus spread in both protected and hunted populations. We showed that demographic stochasticity led to three epidemiological outcomes: early infection fade-out, epidemic outbreaks with population collapse, either followed by virus extinction or by endemic situations. Without re-introduction, the virus faded out in >50% of replications within 4 years and did not persist >20 years. Test-and-cull of infected animals and vaccination had limited effects relative to the efforts devoted, especially in hunted populations in which only quota reduction somewhat improve population recovery. Success of these strategies also relied on the maintenance of a high level of surveillance of hunter-harvested animals. Our findings suggested that, while surveillance and maintenance of population levels at intermediate densities to avoid large epidemics are useful at any time, a 'do nothing' approach during epidemics could be the 'least bad' management strategy in populations of ungulates species facing pestivirus infection.

SUBMITTER: Lambert S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6237989 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Population reduction is often used as a control strategy when managing infectious diseases in wildlife populations in order to reduce host density below a critical threshold. However, population reduction can disrupt existing social and demographic structures leading to changes in observed host behaviour that may result in enhanced disease transmission. Such effects have been observed in several disease systems, notably badgers and bovine tuberculosis. Here we characterise the fundamental properties of disease systems for which such effects undermine the disease control benefits of population reduction. By quantifying the size of response to population reduction in terms of enhanced transmission within a generic non-spatial model, the properties of disease systems in which such effects reduce or even reverse the disease control benefits of population reduction are identified. If population reduction is not sufficiently severe, then enhanced transmission can lead to the counter intuitive perturbation effect, whereby disease levels increase or persist where they would otherwise die out. Perturbation effects are largest for systems with low levels of disease, e.g. low levels of endemicity or emerging disease. Analysis of a stochastic spatial meta-population model of demography and disease dynamics leads to qualitatively similar conclusions. Moreover, enhanced transmission itself is found to arise as an emergent property of density dependent dispersal in such systems. This spatial analysis also shows that, below some threshold, population reduction can rapidly increase the area affected by disease, potentially expanding risks to sympatric species. Our results suggest that the impact of population reduction on social and demographic structures is likely to undermine disease control in many systems, and in severe cases leads to the perturbation effect. Social and demographic mechanisms that enhance transmission following population reduction should therefore be routinely considered when designing control programmes.

Project description:This study investigated the attitudes of the people living in three adjacent communities close to the Bomfobiri wildlife sanctuary in Ghana concerning the observation of the cultural, seasonal closures of hunting. The cognitive and motivational approaches to attitude theory in wildlife management guided, under the phenomenology method, the collection of qualitative data on the importance of the seasonal closure of hunting and its implementation challenges. This inquiry was deemed crucial to improving the disjointed relationship between park management and local communities that often make wildlife conservation and tourism difficult at the Bomfobiri Wildlife Sanctuary. Forty-five key wildlife stakeholders, including park officers, traditional authorities, elderly residents, and bushmeat traders, were purposively selected with some interviewed personally and others engaged in focus group discussions. Despite a more significant number of stakeholders admitting the importance of the seasonal closure of hunting, some challenges impeded its implementation. These included the absence of alternative arrangements to support hunters during the period for the annual closure of hunting; lack of proper sensitisation and education on the hunting ban; absence of transparency in the equitable sharing of proceeds from wildlife tourism at the Bomfobiri Wildlife Sanctuary among park officers (Government) and the traditional authorities; the booming bushmeat business and the fear of losing customers after the fallow period; and purported corruption on the part of park officers, threatening the observation of the seasonal closure of hunting. The study has offered proactive suggestions to the Wildlife Division of the Forestry Commission and mainly to park management at the Bomfobiri Wildlife Sanctuary on how to address these challenges and improve wildlife management and sustainable wildlife tourism potentials in Ghana. Paramount among them is the tactful provision of alternative sources of livelihood and the establishment of enterprises in non-timber forest products as sources of income for hunters during the seasonal hunting ban.

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Demographic stochasticity drives epidemiological patterns in wildlife with implications for diseases and population management.

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