Dataset Information

Clinical Malaria Transmission Trends and Its Association with Climatic Variables in Tubu Village, Botswana: A Retrospective Analysis.

ABSTRACT: Good knowledge on the interactions between climatic variables and malaria can be very useful for predicting outbreaks and preparedness interventions. We investigated clinical malaria transmission patterns and its temporal relationship with climatic variables in Tubu village, Botswana. A 5-year retrospective time series data analysis was conducted to determine the transmission patterns of clinical malaria cases at Tubu Health Post and its relationship with rainfall, flood discharge, flood extent, mean minimum, maximum and average temperatures. Data was obtained from clinical records and respective institutions for the period July 2005 to June 2010, presented graphically and analysed using the Univariate ANOVA and Pearson cross-correlation coefficient tests. Peak malaria season occurred between October and May with the highest cumulative incidence of clinical malaria cases being recorded in February. Most of the cases were individuals aged >5 years. Associations between the incidence of clinical malaria cases and several factors were strong at lag periods of 1 month; rainfall (r = 0.417), mean minimum temperature (r = 0.537), mean average temperature (r = 0.493); and at lag period of 6 months for flood extent (r = 0.467) and zero month for flood discharge (r = 0.497). The effect of mean maximum temperature was strongest at 2-month lag period (r = 0.328). Although malaria transmission patterns varied from year to year the trends were similar to those observed in sub-Saharan Africa. Age group >5 years experienced the greatest burden of clinical malaria probably due to the effects of the national malaria elimination programme. Rainfall, flood discharge and extent, mean minimum and mean average temperatures showed some correlation with the incidence of clinical malaria cases.

SUBMITTER: Chirebvu E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4794139 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Clinical Malaria Transmission Trends and Its Association with Climatic Variables in Tubu Village, Botswana: A Retrospective Analysis.

Chirebvu Elijah E Chimbari Moses John MJ Ngwenya Barbara Ntombi BN Sartorius Benn B

PloS one 20160316 3

Good knowledge on the interactions between climatic variables and malaria can be very useful for predicting outbreaks and preparedness interventions. We investigated clinical malaria transmission patterns and its temporal relationship with climatic variables in Tubu village, Botswana. A 5-year retrospective time series data analysis was conducted to determine the transmission patterns of clinical malaria cases at Tubu Health Post and its relationship with rainfall, flood discharge, flood extent, ...[more]

PMID: 26983035

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Project description:Malaria is an important public-health problem in the archipelago of Vanuatu and climate has been hypothesized as important influence on transmission risk. Beginning in 1988, a major intervention using insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) was implemented in the country in an attempt to reduce Plasmodium transmission. To date, no study has addressed the impact of ITN intervention in Vanuatu, how it may have modified the burden of disease, and whether there were any changes in malaria incidence that might be related to climatic drivers.Monthly time series (January 1983 through December 1999) of confirmed Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections in the archipelago were analysed. During this 17 year period, malaria dynamics underwent a major regime shift around May 1991, following the introduction of bed nets as a control strategy in the country. By February of 1994 disease incidence from both parasites was reduced by at least 50%, when at most 20% of the population at risk was covered by ITNs. Seasonal cycles, as expected, were strongly correlated with temperature patterns, while inter-annual cycles were associated with changes in precipitation. Following the bed net intervention, the influence of environmental drivers of malaria dynamics was reduced by 30-80% for climatic forces, and 33-54% for other factors. A time lag of about five months was observed for the qualitative change ("regime shift") between the two parasites, the change occurring first for P. falciparum. The latter might be explained by interspecific interactions between the two parasites within the human hosts and their distinct biology, since P. vivax can relapse after a primary infection.The Vanuatu ITN programme represents an excellent example of implementing an infectious disease control programme. The distribution was undertaken to cover a large, local proportion (approximately 80%) of people in villages where malaria was present. The successful coverage was possible because of the strategy for distribution of ITNs by prioritizing the free distribution to groups with restricted means for their acquisition, making the access to this resource equitable across the population. These results emphasize the need to implement infectious disease control programmes focusing on the most vulnerable populations.

Project description:BACKGROUND:A mixed methods study was conducted to look at the magnitude of residual malaria transmission (RMT) and factors contributing to low (<?1% prevalence), but sustained transmission in rural communities on the Thai-Myanmar border. METHODS:A cross-sectional behaviour and net survey, observational surveys and entomological collections in both villages and forested farm huts frequented by community members for subsistence farming practices were conducted. RESULTS:Community members frequently stayed overnight at subsistence farm huts or in the forest. Entomological collections showed higher biting rates of primary vectors in forested farm hut sites and in a more forested village setting compared to a village with clustered housing and better infrastructure. Despite high levels of outdoor biting, biting exposure occurred predominantly indoors, particularly for non-users of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). Risk of biting exposure was exacerbated by sub-optimal coverage of LLINs, particularly in subsistence farm huts and in the forest. Furthermore, early waking hours when people had left the safety of their nets coincided with peaks in biting in later morning hours. CONCLUSIONS:Entomological and epidemiological findings suggest drivers and modulators of sustained infection prevalence in the area to be: higher mosquito abundance in forested areas where LLINs were used less frequently or could not be used; late sleeping and waking times coinciding with peak biting hours; feeding preferences of Anopheles taking them away from contact with LLIN and indoor residual spraying (IRS), e.g. exophagy and zoophagy; non-use of LLIN and use of damaged/torn LLIN; high population movement across the border and into forested areas thereby increasing risk of exposure, decreasing use of protection and limiting access to healthcare; and, Plasmodium vivax predominance resulting in relapse(s) of previous infection. The findings highlight gaps in current intervention coverage beyond the village setting.

Project description:Malaria continues to be one of the top infectious agents contributing to morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Annually, Botswana accounts only for a small proportion of cases (<<1%). Despite significantly reduced incidence rate, the country still experiences sporadic outbreaks that hamper the goal of malaria elimination. This review evaluated previous and current biological factors that impact malaria in Botswana, specifically focussing on the vectors, the parasite and the host. This was accomplished via a literature review evaluating these variables in Botswana. Current literature suggests that Anopheles arabiensis is the main malaria vector in the country. Several other potential vectors have been found widely distributed throughout Botswana in high numbers, yet remain largely unstudied with regards to their contribution to the country's malaria burden. We also report the most up to date list of all Anopheles species that have been found in Botswana. Plasmodium falciparum is responsible for the vast majority of symptomatic malaria in the country and some drug resistance markers have been documented for this species. Plasmodium vivax has been reported in asymptomatic subjects, even though a large proportion of the Botswana population appears to be Duffy antigen negative. Very little is known about the true distribution of P. vivax and no point of care testing infrastructure for this species exists in Botswana, making it difficult to tailor treatment to address possible recrudescence or relapse. Due to a genetically diverse population with a substantial Khoisan contribution into the Bantu genetic background, several phenotypes that potentially impact prevalence and severity of malaria exist within the country. These include sickle cell trait, Glucose-6-Phosphate Dehydrogenase deficiency, and Duffy negativity. This review highlights the information that currently exists on malaria in Botswana. It also postulates that a comprehensive understanding of these aforementioned biological factors may help to explain malaria persistence in Botswana.

Project description:Globally, since the end of December 2019, coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been recognized as a severe infectious disease. Therefore, this study has been attempted to examine the linkage between climatic variables and COVID-19 particularly in National Capital Territory of Delhi (NCT of Delhi), India. For this, daily data of COVID-19 has been used for the period March 14 to June 11, 2020, (90 days). Eight climatic variables such as maximum, minimum and mean temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), bright sunshine hours, wind speed (km/h), evaporation (mm), and rainfall (mm) have been analyzed in relation to COVID-19. To study the relationship among different climatic variables and COVID-19 spread, Karl Pearson’s correlation analysis has been performed. The Mann–Kendall method and Sen’s slope estimator have been used to detect the direction and magnitude of COVID-19 trends, respectively. The results have shown that out of eight selected climatic variables, six variables, viz. maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, relative humidity, evaporation, and wind speed are positively associated with coronavirus disease cases (statistically significant at 95 and 99% confidence levels). No association of coronavirus disease has been found with bright sunshine hours and rainfall. Besides, COVID-19 cases and deaths have shown increasing trends, significant at 99% confidence level. The results of this study suggest that climatic conditions in NCT of Delhi are favorable for COVID-19 and the disease may spread further with the increasing temperature, relative humidity, evaporation and wind speed. This is the only study which has presented the analysis of COVID-19 spread in relation to several climatic variables for the most densely populated and rapidly growing city of India. Thus, considering the results obtained, effective policies and actions are necessary especially by identifying the areas where the spread rate is increasing rapidly in this megacity. The prevention and protection measures should be adopted aiming at to reduce the further transmission of disease in the city.

Project description:Patients admitted to intensive care following surgery for faecal peritonitis present particular challenges in terms of clinical management and risk assessment. Collaborating surgical and intensive care teams need shared perspectives on prognosis. We aimed to determine the relationship between dynamic assessment of trends in selected variables and outcomes.We analysed trends in physiological and laboratory variables during the first week of intensive care unit (ICU) stay in 977 patients at 102 centres across 16 European countries. The primary outcome was 6-month mortality. Secondary endpoints were ICU, hospital and 28-day mortality. For each trend, Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression analyses, adjusted for age and sex, were performed for each endpoint.Trends over the first 7 days of the ICU stay independently associated with 6-month mortality were worsening thrombocytopaenia (mortality: hazard ratio (HR)?= 1.02; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.01 to 1.03; P < 0.001) and renal function (total daily urine output: HR =1.02; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.03; P < 0.001; Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) renal subscore: HR = 0.87; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.047), maximum bilirubin level (HR = 0.99; 95% CI, 0.99 to 0.99; P = 0.02) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) SOFA subscore (HR = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.98; P = 0.028). Changes in renal function (total daily urine output and renal component of the SOFA score), GCS component of the SOFA score, total SOFA score and worsening thrombocytopaenia were also independently associated with secondary outcomes (ICU, hospital and 28-day mortality). We detected the same pattern when we analysed trends on days 2, 3 and 5. Dynamic trends in all other measured laboratory and physiological variables, and in radiological findings, changes in respiratory support, renal replacement therapy and inotrope and/or vasopressor requirements failed to be retained as independently associated with outcome in multivariate analysis.Only deterioration in renal function, thrombocytopaenia and SOFA score over the first 2, 3, 5 and 7 days of the ICU stay were consistently associated with mortality at all endpoints. These findings may help to inform clinical decision making in patients with this common cause of critical illness.

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Dataset Information

Clinical Malaria Transmission Trends and Its Association with Climatic Variables in Tubu Village, Botswana: A Retrospective Analysis.

Publications

Clinical Malaria Transmission Trends and Its Association with Climatic Variables in Tubu Village, Botswana: A Retrospective Analysis.

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