Dataset Information

Surveillance of the Incidence of Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) with Sparse Resources: A Simulation Study Using Data from a National Diabetes Registry, Denmark, 1995-2004.

ABSTRACT: We propose two new methods to estimate secular trends in the incidence of a chronic disease from a series of prevalence studies and mortality data. One method is a direct inversion formula, the second method is a least squares estimation. Both methods are validated in a simulation study based on data from a diabetes register. The results of the validation show that the proposed methods may be useful in epidemiological settings with sparse resources, where running a register or a series of follow-up studies is difficult or impossible.

SUBMITTER: Brinks R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4811427 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Surveillance of the Incidence of Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) with Sparse Resources: A Simulation Study Using Data from a National Diabetes Registry, Denmark, 1995-2004.

Brinks Ralph R Hoyer Annika A Landwehr Sandra S

PloS one 20160329 3

We propose two new methods to estimate secular trends in the incidence of a chronic disease from a series of prevalence studies and mortality data. One method is a direct inversion formula, the second method is a least squares estimation. Both methods are validated in a simulation study based on data from a diabetes register. The results of the validation show that the proposed methods may be useful in epidemiological settings with sparse resources, where running a register or a series of follow ...[more]

PMID: 27023438

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Project description:BackgroundCancer survival is a key measure of the effectiveness of health-care systems. Persistent regional and international differences in survival represent many avoidable deaths. Differences in survival have prompted or guided cancer control strategies. This is the first study in a programme to investigate international survival disparities, with the aim of informing health policy to raise standards and reduce inequalities in survival.MethodsData from population-based cancer registries in 12 jurisdictions in six countries were provided for 2·4 million adults diagnosed with primary colorectal, lung, breast (women), or ovarian cancer during 1995-2007, with follow-up to Dec 31, 2007. Data quality control and analyses were done centrally with a common protocol, overseen by external experts. We estimated 1-year and 5-year relative survival, constructing 252 complete life tables to control for background mortality by age, sex, and calendar year. We report age-specific and age-standardised relative survival at 1 and 5 years, and 5-year survival conditional on survival to the first anniversary of diagnosis. We also examined incidence and mortality trends during 1985-2005.FindingsRelative survival improved during 1995-2007 for all four cancers in all jurisdictions. Survival was persistently higher in Australia, Canada, and Sweden, intermediate in Norway, and lower in Denmark, England, Northern Ireland, and Wales, particularly in the first year after diagnosis and for patients aged 65 years and older. International differences narrowed at all ages for breast cancer, from about 9% to 5% at 1 year and from about 14% to 8% at 5 years, but less or not at all for the other cancers. For colorectal cancer, the international range narrowed only for patients aged 65 years and older, by 2-6% at 1 year and by 2-3% at 5 years.InterpretationUp-to-date survival trends show increases but persistent differences between countries. Trends in cancer incidence and mortality are broadly consistent with these trends in survival. Data quality and changes in classification are not likely explanations. The patterns are consistent with later diagnosis or differences in treatment, particularly in Denmark and the UK, and in patients aged 65 years and older.FundingDepartment of Health, England; and Cancer Research UK.

Project description:BackgroundTo follow the impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic in Denmark, influenza surveillance was extended with a system monitoring potentially influenza-associated hospitalisations.Methodology/principal findingsNational administrative data from 2004-2010 from the automatic reporting of all hospital visits and admissions in Denmark (population 5.5 million) were used. In-patient hospitalisations linked to ICD-10 codes for potentially influenza-associated conditions (influenza, viral and bacterial pneumonia, respiratory distress, and febrile convulsion) were aggregated by week and age groups; <5 years, 5-24 years, 25-64 years and ≥65 years. Weekly numbers of influenza-associated hospitalisations were plotted to follow the course of the pandemic. We calculated the total numbers of influenza-associated hospitalisations in each influenza season (week 30 to week 15, the following year). Risk ratios of being admitted with an influenza-associated condition in this season (2009/2010) compared to the previous five seasons (2004/2005-2008/2009) were calculated using binary regression. During the pandemic season, influenza-associated hospitalisations peaked in week 47, 2009. The total number of influenza-associated hospitalisations was 38,273 compared to the median of previous seasons of 35,662 (p = 0.28). The risk ratio of influenza-associated hospitalisations during the pandemic season compared to previous seasons was 1.63 (95%CI 1.49-1.78) for 5-24 year-olds and ranged between 0.98 and 1.08 for the other three age groups.ConclusionsThe 2009 pandemic influenza did not lead to an overall increase in the number of influenza-associated hospitalisations in Denmark in the 2009/2010 season and could be managed within existing hospital capacity. However, there was a disproportionally large impact on the age group 5-24 years. The influenza-associated hospitalisations during the 2009/2010 pandemic influenza season bore the signature features of historical pandemics: A skewed age-pattern and early out of season transmission.

Project description:Severe chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) pose important challenges for health systems across Africa. This study explores the current availability of and demand for decentralization of services for four high-priority conditions: insulin-dependent diabetes, heart failure, sickle cell disease, and chronic pain. Ministry of Health NCD Programme Managers from across Africa (N = 47) were invited to participate in an online survey. Respondents were asked to report the status of clinical care across the health system. A care package including diagnostics and treatment was described for each condition. Respondents were asked whether the described services are currently available at primary, secondary and tertiary levels, and whether making the service generally available at that level is expected to be a priority in the coming 5 years. Thirty-seven (79%) countries responded. Countries reported widespread gaps in service availability at all levels. We found that just under half (49%) of respondents report that services for insulin-dependent diabetes are generally available at the secondary level (district hospital); 32% report the same for heart failure, 27% for chronic pain and 14% for sickle cell disease. Reported gaps are smaller at tertiary level (referral hospital) and larger at primary care level (health centres). Respondents report ambitious plans to introduce and decentralize these services in the coming 5 years. Respondents from 32 countries (86%) hope to make all services available at tertiary hospitals, and 21 countries (57%) expect to make all services available at secondary facilities. These priorities align with the Package of Essential NCD Interventions-Plus. Efforts will require strengthened infrastructure and supply chains, capacity building for staff and new monitoring and evaluation systems for efficient implementation. Many countries will need targeted financial assistance in order to realize these goals. Nearly all (36/37) respondents request technical assistance to organize services for severe chronic NCDs.

Dataset Information

Surveillance of the Incidence of Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) with Sparse Resources: A Simulation Study Using Data from a National Diabetes Registry, Denmark, 1995-2004.

Publications

Surveillance of the Incidence of Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) with Sparse Resources: A Simulation Study Using Data from a National Diabetes Registry, Denmark, 1995-2004.

Similar Datasets

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