Dataset Information

Tuberculosis Epidemiology at the Country Scale: Self-Limiting Process and the HIV Effects.

ABSTRACT: The global spread of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is the main hypothesis behind tuberculosis (TB) positive trends in the last decades, according to modeling studies and World Health Organization Reports (WHO). On one hand, TB (WHO) reports do not explicitly consider a modeling approach, but cover country and global TB trends. On the other hand, modeling studies usually do not cover the scale of WHO reports, because of the amount of parameters estimated to describe TB natural history. Here we combined these two principal sources of TB studies covering TB High Burden Countries (HBCs) dynamics. Our main goals were: (i) to detect the endogenous component of TB dynamics since 1974 for TB HBCs; and (ii) to explore the HIV exogenous effects on TB models`parameters.We explored the relationship between the TB per capita population rate of change (RI) and the infectious class size following an endogenous/exogenous framework. RI can be affected by intra-population processes (i.e. competition, predation) and exogenous variables like HIV. We found that TB dynamics had always a strong endogenous component, represented by a negative correlation between TB population size and RI, which was captured by the discrete logistic model. Moreover, we explored the HIV exogenous effects on TB models`parameters. We found that overall the TB+HIV logistic model was more parsimonious than TB model alone, principally in the African region. Our results showed that HIV affected principally TB carrying capacity, as expected by the known HIV effects on TB natural-history. We also tested if DOTS (Directly Observed Treatment Short-Course Strategy), poverty levels and BCG (Bacillus Calmette-Guérin) coverage explained the models´ residuals variances, but they did not.Since 1974, TB dynamics were categorized in distinct chronological domains, with different dynamics but nearly the same underlying mechanism: a negative relationship between RI and infected class size (i.e. self-limiting). In the last decades, not only HIV spread represented a new TB chronological domain, but it also has been pushing TB carrying capacity (K) to higher levels. TB has a complex natural-history and imposes real challenges to model its dynamics. Yet, we were able to explore and reveal the main drivers of TB dynamics for HBCs since 1974, through a simple approach. Based on our results, we suggest that the endogenous view should be considered as a plausible hypothesis to model and explain TB dynamics and that future World Health Organization reports could include the endogenous/exogenous framework as a supplement to help to decipher the main drivers of TB dynamics and other diseases.

SUBMITTER: Krsulovic FA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4836699 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Tuberculosis Epidemiology at the Country Scale: Self-Limiting Process and the HIV Effects.

Krsulovic Felipe Augusto Maurin FA Lima Mauricio M

PloS one 20160419 4

<h4>Background</h4>The global spread of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is the main hypothesis behind tuberculosis (TB) positive trends in the last decades, according to modeling studies and World Health Organization Reports (WHO). On one hand, TB (WHO) reports do not explicitly consider a modeling approach, but cover country and global TB trends. On the other hand, modeling studies usually do not cover the scale of WHO reports, because of the amount of parameters estimated to describe TB ...[more]

PMID: 27093296

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Project description:Background HIV is known to increase the likelihood of reactivation of latent tuberculosis to active TB disease; however, its impact on tuberculosis infectiousness and consequent transmission is unclear, particularly in low-incidence settings. Methods National surveillance data from England, Wales and Northern Ireland on tuberculosis cases in adults from 2010 to 2014, strain typed using 24-locus mycobacterial-interspersed-repetitive-units–variable-number-tandem-repeats was used retrospectively to identify clusters of tuberculosis cases, subdivided into ‘first’ and ‘subsequent’ cases. Firstly, we used zero-inflated Poisson regression models to examine the association between HIV status and the number of subsequent clustered cases (a surrogate for tuberculosis infectiousness) in a strain type cluster. Secondly, we used logistic regression to examine the association between HIV status and the likelihood of being a subsequent case in a cluster (a surrogate for recent acquisition of tuberculosis infection) compared to the first case or a non-clustered case (a surrogate for reactivation of latent infection). Results We included 18,864 strain-typed cases, 2238 were the first cases of clusters and 8471 were subsequent cases. Seven hundred and fifty-nine (4%) were HIV-positive. Outcome 1: HIV-positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases who were the first in a cluster had fewer subsequent cases associated with them (mean 0.6, multivariable incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.75 [0.65–0.86]) than those HIV-negative (mean 1.1). Extra-pulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) cases with HIV were less likely to be the first case in a cluster compared to HIV-negative EPTB cases. EPTB cases who were the first case had a higher mean number of subsequent cases (mean 2.5, IRR (3.62 [3.12–4.19]) than those HIV-negative (mean 0.6). Outcome 2: tuberculosis cases with HIV co-infection were less likely to be a subsequent case in a cluster (odds ratio 0.82 [0.69–0.98]), compared to being the first or a non-clustered case. Conclusions Outcome 1: pulmonary tuberculosis-HIV patients were less infectious than those without HIV. EPTB patients with HIV who were the first case in a cluster had a higher number of subsequent cases and thus may be markers of other undetected cases, discoverable by contact investigations. Outcome 2: tuberculosis in HIV-positive individuals was more likely due to reactivation than recent infection, compared to those who were HIV-negative. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-020-01849-7.

Project description:Tuberculosis (TB) remains a serious global public health problem in the present. TB also affects other sites (extrapulmonary tuberculosis, EPTB), and accounts for a significant proportion of tuberculosis cases worldwide. In order to comprehensively understand epidemiology of EBTB in China, and improve early diagnosis and treatment, we conducted a large-scale multi-center observational study to assess the demographic data and the prevalence of common EPTB inpatients, and further evaluate the prevalence of EPTB concurrent with Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and the associations between multiple EPTB types and gender-age group in China. All consecutive age≥15yr inpatients with a confirmed diagnosis of EPTB during the period from January 2011 to December 2017 were included in the study. The descriptive statistical analysis included median and quartile measurements for continuous variables, and frequencies and proportions with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for categorical variables. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to compare the association of multiple EPTB types between age group and gender. The results showed that the proportion of 15-24 years and 25-34 years in EPTB inpatients were the most and the ratio of male: female was 1.51. Approximately 70% of EPTB inpatients were concurrent with PTB or other types of EPTB. The most common of EPTB was tuberculous pleurisy (50.15%), followed by bronchial tuberculosis (14.96%), tuberculous lymphadenitis of the neck (7.24%), tuberculous meningitis (7.23%), etc. It was found that many EPTB inpatients concurrent with PTB. The highest prevalence of EPTB concurrent with PTB was pharyngeal/laryngeal tuberculosis (91.31%), followed by bronchial tuberculosis (89.52%), tuberculosis of hilar lymph nodes (79.52%), tuberculosis of mediastinal lymph nodes (79.13%), intestinal tuberculosis (72.04%), tuberculous pleurisy (65.31%) and tuberculous meningitis (62.64%), etc. The results from EPTB concurrent with PTB suggested that females EPTB inpatients were less likely to be at higher risk of concurrent PTB (aOR = 0.819, 95%CI:0.803-0.835) after adjusted by age. As age increasing, the trend risk of concurrent PTB decreased (aOR = 0.994, 95%CI: 0.989-0.999) after adjusted by gender. Our study demonstrated that the common EPTB were tuberculous pleurisy, bronchial tuberculosis, tuberculous lymphadenitis of the neck, tuberculous meningitis, etc. A majority of patients with pharyngeal/laryngeal tuberculosis, bronchial tuberculosis, tuberculosis of hilar/mediastinal lymph nodes, intestinal tuberculosis, tuberculous pleurisy, tuberculous meningitis, etc. were concurrent with PTB. Female EPTB inpatients were less likely to be at higher risk of concurrent PTB, and as age increasing, the trend risk of concurrent PTB decreased. The clinicians should be alert to the presence of concurrent tuberculosis in EPTB, and all suspected cases of EPTB should be assessed for concomitant PTB to determine whether the case is infectious and to help for early diagnosis and treatment.

Dataset Information

Tuberculosis Epidemiology at the Country Scale: Self-Limiting Process and the HIV Effects.

Publications

Tuberculosis Epidemiology at the Country Scale: Self-Limiting Process and the HIV Effects.

Similar Datasets

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