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Trajectory of body shape in early and middle life and all cause and cause specific mortality: results from two prospective US cohort studies.

ABSTRACT: To assess body shape trajectories in early and middle life in relation to risk of mortality.Prospective cohort study.Nurses' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-up Study.80?266 women and 36?622 men who recalled their body shape at ages 5, 10, 20, 30, and 40 years and provided body mass index at age 50, followed from age 60 over a median of 15-16 years for death.All cause and cause specific mortality.Using a group based modeling approach, five distinct trajectories of body shape from age 5 to 50 were identified: lean-stable, lean-moderate increase, lean-marked increase, medium-stable/increase, and heavy-stable/increase. The lean-stable group was used as the reference. Among never smokers, the multivariable adjusted hazard ratio for death from any cause was 1.08 (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.14) for women and 0.95 (0.88 to 1.03) for men in the lean-moderate increase group, 1.43 (1.33 to 1.54) for women and 1.11 (1.02 to 1.20) for men in the lean-marked increase group, 1.04 (0.97 to 1.12) for women and 1.01 (0.94 to 1.09) for men in the medium-stable/increase group, and 1.64 (1.49 to 1.81) for women and 1.19 (1.08 to 1.32) for men in the heavy-stable/increase group. For cause specific mortality, participants in the heavy-stable/increase group had the highest risk, with a hazard ratio among never smokers of 2.30 (1.88 to 2.81) in women and 1.45 (1.23 to 1.72) in men for cardiovascular disease, 1.37 (1.14 to 1.65) in women and 1.07 (0.89 to 1.30) in men for cancer, and 1.59 (1.38 to 1.82) in women and 1.10 (0.95 to 1.29) in men for other causes. The trajectory-mortality association was generally weaker among ever smokers than among never smokers (for all cause mortality: P for interaction <0.001 in women and 0.06 in men). When participants were classified jointly according to trajectories and history of type 2 diabetes, the increased risk of death associated with heavier body shape trajectories was more pronounced among participants with type 2 diabetes than those without diabetes, and those in the heavy-stable/increase trajectory and with a history of diabetes had the highest risk of death.Using the trajectory approach, we found that heavy body shape from age 5 up to 50, especially the increase in middle life, was associated with higher mortality. In contrast, people who maintained a stably lean body shape had the lowest mortality. These results indicate the importance of weight management across the lifespan.

SUBMITTER: Song M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4856853 | biostudies-literature | 2016 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Trajectory of body shape in early and middle life and all cause and cause specific mortality: results from two prospective US cohort studies.

Song Mingyang M Hu Frank B FB Wu Kana K Must Aviva A Chan Andrew T AT Willett Walter C WC Giovannucci Edward L EL

BMJ (Clinical research ed.) 20160504

<h4>Objective</h4>To assess body shape trajectories in early and middle life in relation to risk of mortality.<h4>Design</h4>Prospective cohort study.<h4>Setting</h4>Nurses' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-up Study.<h4>Population</h4>80 266 women and 36 622 men who recalled their body shape at ages 5, 10, 20, 30, and 40 years and provided body mass index at age 50, followed from age 60 over a median of 15-16 years for death.<h4>Main outcome measures</h4>All cause and cause specific ...[more]

PMID: 27146280

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Project description:BackgroundThe main associations of body-mass index (BMI) with overall and cause-specific mortality can best be assessed by long-term prospective follow-up of large numbers of people. The Prospective Studies Collaboration aimed to investigate these associations by sharing data from many studies.MethodsCollaborative analyses were undertaken of baseline BMI versus mortality in 57 prospective studies with 894 576 participants, mostly in western Europe and North America (61% [n=541 452] male, mean recruitment age 46 [SD 11] years, median recruitment year 1979 [IQR 1975-85], mean BMI 25 [SD 4] kg/m(2)). The analyses were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, and study. To limit reverse causality, the first 5 years of follow-up were excluded, leaving 66 552 deaths of known cause during a mean of 8 (SD 6) further years of follow-up (mean age at death 67 [SD 10] years): 30 416 vascular; 2070 diabetic, renal or hepatic; 22 592 neoplastic; 3770 respiratory; 7704 other.FindingsIn both sexes, mortality was lowest at about 22.5-25 kg/m(2). Above this range, positive associations were recorded for several specific causes and inverse associations for none, the absolute excess risks for higher BMI and smoking were roughly additive, and each 5 kg/m(2) higher BMI was on average associated with about 30% higher overall mortality (hazard ratio per 5 kg/m(2) [HR] 1.29 [95% CI 1.27-1.32]): 40% for vascular mortality (HR 1.41 [1.37-1.45]); 60-120% for diabetic, renal, and hepatic mortality (HRs 2.16 [1.89-2.46], 1.59 [1.27-1.99], and 1.82 [1.59-2.09], respectively); 10% for neoplastic mortality (HR 1.10 [1.06-1.15]); and 20% for respiratory and for all other mortality (HRs 1.20 [1.07-1.34] and 1.20 [1.16-1.25], respectively). Below the range 22.5-25 kg/m(2), BMI was associated inversely with overall mortality, mainly because of strong inverse associations with respiratory disease and lung cancer. These inverse associations were much stronger for smokers than for non-smokers, despite cigarette consumption per smoker varying little with BMI.InterpretationAlthough other anthropometric measures (eg, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio) could well add extra information to BMI, and BMI to them, BMI is in itself a strong predictor of overall mortality both above and below the apparent optimum of about 22.5-25 kg/m(2). The progressive excess mortality above this range is due mainly to vascular disease and is probably largely causal. At 30-35 kg/m(2), median survival is reduced by 2-4 years; at 40-45 kg/m(2), it is reduced by 8-10 years (which is comparable with the effects of smoking). The definite excess mortality below 22.5 kg/m(2) is due mainly to smoking-related diseases, and is not fully explained.

Project description:BackgroundObesity is a global public health challenge. In the US, for instance, obesity prevalence remains high at more than one-third of the adult population, while over two-thirds are obese or overweight. Obesity is associated with various health problems, such as diabetes, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), depression, some forms of cancer, sleep apnea, osteoarthritis, among others. The body mass index (BMI) is one of the best known measures of obesity. The BMI, however, has serious limitations, for instance, its inability to capture the distribution of lean mass and adipose tissue, which is a better predictor of diabetes and CVDs, and its curved ("U-shaped") relationship with mortality hazard. Other anthropometric measures and their relation to obesity have been studied, each with its advantages and limitations. In this work, we introduce a new anthropometric measure (called Surface-based Body Shape Index, SBSI) that accounts for both body shape and body size, and evaluate its performance as a predictor of all-cause mortality.Methods and findingsWe analyzed data on 11,808 subjects (ages 18-85), from the National Health and Human Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2004, with 8-year mortality follow up. Based on the analysis, we introduce a new body shape index constructed from four important anthropometric determinants of body shape and body size: body surface area (BSA), vertical trunk circumference (VTC), height (H) and waist circumference (WC). The surface-based body shape index (SBSI) is defined as follows: SBSI = ((H(7/4))(WC(5/6)))/(BSA VTC) (1) SBSI has negative correlation with BMI and weight respectively, no correlation with WC, and shows a generally linear relationship with age. Results on mortality hazard prediction using both the Cox proportionality model, and Kaplan-Meier curves each show that SBSI outperforms currently popular body shape indices (e.g., BMI, WC, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), A Body Shape Index (ABSI)) in predicting all-cause mortality.ConclusionsWe combine measures of both body shape and body size to construct a novel anthropometric measure, the surface-based body shape index (SBSI). SBSI is generally linear with age, and increases with increasing mortality, when compared with other popular anthropometric indices of body shape.

Project description:BackgroundOverweight and obesity are increasing worldwide. To help assess their relevance to mortality in different populations we conducted individual-participant data meta-analyses of prospective studies of body-mass index (BMI), limiting confounding and reverse causality by restricting analyses to never-smokers and excluding pre-existing disease and the first 5 years of follow-up.MethodsOf 10?625?411 participants in Asia, Australia and New Zealand, Europe, and North America from 239 prospective studies (median follow-up 13·7 years, IQR 11·4-14·7), 3?951?455 people in 189 studies were never-smokers without chronic diseases at recruitment who survived 5 years, of whom 385?879 died. The primary analyses are of these deaths, and study, age, and sex adjusted hazard ratios (HRs), relative to BMI 22·5-<25·0 kg/m(2).FindingsAll-cause mortality was minimal at 20·0-25·0 kg/m(2) (HR 1·00, 95% CI 0·98-1·02 for BMI 20·0-<22·5 kg/m(2); 1·00, 0·99-1·01 for BMI 22·5-<25·0 kg/m(2)), and increased significantly both just below this range (1·13, 1·09-1·17 for BMI 18·5-<20·0 kg/m(2); 1·51, 1·43-1·59 for BMI 15·0-<18·5) and throughout the overweight range (1·07, 1·07-1·08 for BMI 25·0-<27·5 kg/m(2); 1·20, 1·18-1·22 for BMI 27·5-<30·0 kg/m(2)). The HR for obesity grade 1 (BMI 30·0-<35·0 kg/m(2)) was 1·45, 95% CI 1·41-1·48; the HR for obesity grade 2 (35·0-<40·0 kg/m(2)) was 1·94, 1·87-2·01; and the HR for obesity grade 3 (40·0-<60·0 kg/m(2)) was 2·76, 2·60-2·92. For BMI over 25·0 kg/m(2), mortality increased approximately log-linearly with BMI; the HR per 5 kg/m(2) units higher BMI was 1·39 (1·34-1·43) in Europe, 1·29 (1·26-1·32) in North America, 1·39 (1·34-1·44) in east Asia, and 1·31 (1·27-1·35) in Australia and New Zealand. This HR per 5 kg/m(2) units higher BMI (for BMI over 25 kg/m(2)) was greater in younger than older people (1·52, 95% CI 1·47-1·56, for BMI measured at 35-49 years vs 1·21, 1·17-1·25, for BMI measured at 70-89 years; pheterogeneity<0·0001), greater in men than women (1·51, 1·46-1·56, vs 1·30, 1·26-1·33; pheterogeneity<0·0001), but similar in studies with self-reported and measured BMI.InterpretationThe associations of both overweight and obesity with higher all-cause mortality were broadly consistent in four continents. This finding supports strategies to combat the entire spectrum of excess adiposity in many populations.FundingUK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health.

Project description:Evidence for associations between long-term protein intake with mortality is not consistent. We aimed to examine associations of dietary protein from different sources with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. We followed 7786 participants from three sub-cohorts of the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort in the Netherlands. Dietary data were collected using food-frequency questionnaires at baseline (1989-1993, 2000-2001, 2006-2008). Deaths were followed until 2018. Associations were examined using Cox regression. Additionally, we performed a highest versus lowest meta-analysis and a dose-response meta-analysis to summarize results from the Rotterdam Study and previous prospective cohorts. During a median follow-up of 13.0 years, 3589 deaths were documented in the Rotterdam Study. In this cohort, after multivariable adjustment, higher total protein intake was associated with higher all-cause mortality [e.g. highest versus lowest quartile of total protein intake as percentage of energy (Q4 versus Q1), HR = 1.12 (1.01, 1.25)]; mainly explained by higher animal protein intake and CVD mortality [Q4 versus Q1, CVD mortality: 1.28 (1.03, 1.60)]. The association of animal protein intake and CVD was mainly contributed to by protein from meat and dairy. Total plant protein intake was not associated with all-cause or cause-specific mortality, mainly explained by null associations for protein from grains and potatoes; but higher intake of protein from legumes, nuts, vegetables, and fruits was associated with lower risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Findings for total and animal protein intake were corroborated in a meta-analysis of eleven prospective cohort studies including the Rotterdam Study (total 64,306 deaths among 350,452 participants): higher total protein intake was associated with higher all-cause mortality [pooled RR for highest versus lowest quantile 1.05 (1.01, 1.10)]; and for dose-response per 5 energy percent (E%) increment, 1.02 (1.004, 1.04); again mainly driven by an association between animal protein and CVD mortality [highest versus lowest, 1.09 (1.01, 1.18); per 5 E% increment, 1.05 (1.02, 1.09)]. Furthermore, in the meta-analysis a higher plant protein intake was associated with lower all-cause and CVD mortality [e.g. for all-cause mortality, highest versus lowest, 0.93 (0.87, 0.99); per 5 E% increment, 0.87 (0.78, 0.98), for CVD mortality, highest versus lowest 0.86 (0.73, 1.00)]. Evidence from prospective cohort studies to date suggests that total protein intake is positively associated with all-cause mortality, mainly driven by a harmful association of animal protein with CVD mortality. Plant protein intake is inversely associated with all-cause and CVD mortality. Our findings support current dietary recommendations to increase intake of plant protein in place of animal protein.Clinical trial registry number and website NTR6831, https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/6645.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:To investigate the association of predicted lean body mass, fat mass, and body mass index (BMI) with all cause and cause specific mortality in men. DESIGN:Prospective cohort study. SETTING:Health professionals in the United States PARTICIPANTS: 38?006 men (aged 40-75 years) from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, followed up for death (1987-2012). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:All cause and cause specific mortality. RESULTS:Using validated anthropometric prediction equations previously developed from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, lean body mass and fat mass were estimated for all participants. During a mean of 21.4 years of follow-up, 12?356 deaths were identified. A J shaped association was consistently observed between BMI and all cause mortality. Multivariable adjusted Cox models including predicted fat mass and lean body mass showed a strong positive monotonic association between predicted fat mass and all cause mortality. Compared with those in the lowest fifth of predicted fat mass, men in the highest fifth had a hazard ratio of 1.35 (95% confidence interval 1.26 to 1.46) for mortality from all causes. In contrast, a U shaped association was found between predicted lean body mass and all cause mortality. Compared with those in the lowest fifth of predicted lean body mass, men in the second to fourth fifths had 8-10% lower risk of mortality from all causes. In the restricted cubic spline models, the risk of all cause mortality was relatively flat until 21 kg of predicted fat mass and increased rapidly afterwards, with a hazard ratio of 1.22 (1.18 to 1.26) per standard deviation. For predicted lean body mass, a large reduction of the risk was seen within the lower range until 56 kg, with a hazard ratio of 0.87 (0.82 to 0.92) per standard deviation, which increased thereafter (P for non-linearity <0.001). For cause specific mortality, men in the highest fifth of predicted fat mass had hazard ratios of 1.67 (1.47 to 1.89) for cardiovascular disease, 1.24 (1.09 to 1.43) for cancer, and 1.26 (0.97 to 1.64) for respiratory disease. On the other hand, a U shaped association was found between predicted lean body mass and mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, a strong inverse association existed between predicted lean body mass and mortality from respiratory disease (P for trend <0.001). CONCLUSIONS:The shape of the association between BMI and mortality was determined by the relation between two body components (lean body mass and fat mass) and mortality. This finding suggests that the "obesity paradox" controversy may be largely explained by low lean body mass, rather than low fat mass, in the lower range of BMI.

Dataset Information

Trajectory of body shape in early and middle life and all cause and cause specific mortality: results from two prospective US cohort studies.

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Trajectory of body shape in early and middle life and all cause and cause specific mortality: results from two prospective US cohort studies.

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