Projecting Month of Birth for At-Risk Infants after Zika Virus Disease Outbreaks.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Reefhuis J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4861542 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The global epidemic of Zika virus has been a major public health problem affecting pregnant women and their infants. Zika virus causes a viral disease transmitted to humans mainly by the infected Aedes mosquito bite. The infection is not severe in most cases; however, there is evidence that infection during pregnancy may be associated with fetal genetic abnormalities (including microcephaly). In addition to microcephaly and other malformations, some specific lesions in the central nervous system have been reported. The aim of this systematic review was to determine the risk of developing microcephaly in infants whose mothers were infected with Zika virus in pregnancy. Epidemiological studies and case reports were incorporated in our review, finally including 15 articles from an initial pool of 355 related papers. Most studies have linked maternal infection during pregnancy to the development of neonatal microcephaly. The period considered most dangerous is the first trimester and the beginning or the whole of the second trimester. In order to understand the relationship between Zika virus and microcephaly in infants, a cohort study will be able to estimate the time from the onset of Zika infection and the full spectrum of adverse pregnancy outcomes.
| S-EPMC7312578 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In 2015, ZIKV infection attracted international attention during an epidemic in the Americas, when neurological disorders were reported in babies who had their mothers exposed to ZIKV during pregnancy. World Health Organization (WHO) epidemiological data show that 5 to 15% of neonates exposed to ZIKV in the uterus have complications included in abnormalities related to Congenital Zika Syndrome (CZS). The risk of complications after birth is not well documented, however, clinical evidence shows that 6% of babies exposed to ZIKV during pregnancy have complications present at birth, and this rate rises to 14% when medical monitoring is performed in all exposed babies, regardless of birth condition. Thus, the evaluation and monitoring of all exposed babies are of foremost importance as the development of late complications has been increasingly supported by clinical evidence. The identification of molecular markers in infants exposed to ZIKV without CZS could provide valuable means to improve their clinical monitoring. Here, we used a shotgun-proteomic approach to investigate molecular markers in the serum of infants without CZS symptoms but exposed to ZIKV intrauterine (ZIKV) compared to non-exposed controls (CTRL).
2021-09-09 | PXD020294 | Pride
Project description:BackgroundZika virus infection during pregnancy can cause serious birth defects, which include brain and eye abnormalities. The clinical importance of detection of Zika virus RNA in amniotic fluid is unknown.ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to describe patterns of Zika virus RNA testing of amniotic fluid relative to other clinical specimens and to examine the association between Zika virus detection in amniotic fluid and Zika-associated birth defects. Our null hypothesis was that Zika virus detection in amniotic fluid was not associated with Zika-associated birth defects.Study designWe conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of women with amniotic fluid specimens submitted to Colombia's National Institute of Health as part of national Zika virus surveillance from January 2016 to January 2017. Specimens (maternal serum, amniotic fluid, cord blood, umbilical cord tissue, and placental tissue) were tested for the presence of Zika virus RNA with the use of a singleplex or multiplex real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay. Birth defect information was abstracted from maternal prenatal and infant birth records and reviewed by expert clinicians. Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used to compare the frequency of Zika-associated birth defects (defined as brain abnormalities [with or without microcephaly, but excluding neural tube defects and their associated findings] or eye abnormalities) by frequency of detection of Zika virus RNA in amniotic fluid.ResultsOur analysis included 128 women with amniotic fluid specimens. Seventy-five women (58%) had prenatally collected amniotic fluid; 42 women (33%) had amniotic fluid collected at delivery, and 11 women (9%) had missing collection dates. Ninety-one women had both amniotic fluid and other clinical specimens submitted for testing, which allowed for comparison across specimen types. Of those 91 women, 68 had evidence of Zika virus infection based on detection of Zika virus RNA in ≥1 specimen. Testing of amniotic fluid that was collected prenatally or at delivery identified 39 of these Zika virus infections (57%; 15 [22%] infections were identified only in amniotic fluid), and 29 infections (43%) were identified in other specimen types and not amniotic fluid. Among women who were included in the analysis, 89 had pregnancy outcome information available, which allowed for the assessment of the presence of Zika-associated birth defects. Zika-associated birth defects were significantly (P<.05) more common among pregnancies with Zika virus RNA detected in amniotic fluid specimens collected prenatally (19/32 specimens; 59%) than for those with no laboratory evidence of Zika virus infection in any specimen (6/23 specimens; 26%), but the proportion was similar in pregnancies with only Zika virus RNA detected in specimens other than amniotic fluid (10/23 specimens; 43%). Although Zika-associated birth defects were more common among women with any Zika virus RNA detected in amniotic fluid specimens (ie, collected prenatally or at delivery; 21/43 specimens; 49%) than those with no laboratory evidence of Zika virus infection (6/23 specimens; 26%), this comparison did not reach statistical significance (P=.07).ConclusionTesting of amniotic fluid provided additional evidence for maternal diagnosis of Zika virus infection. Zika-associated birth defects were more common among women with Zika virus RNA that was detected in prenatal amniotic fluid specimens than women with no laboratory evidence of Zika virus infection, but similar to women with Zika virus RNA detected in other, nonamniotic fluid specimen types.
| S-EPMC7477618 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The pacific islands of Micronesia have experienced several outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases over the past decade. In outbreaks on small islands, the susceptible population is usually well defined, and there is no co-circulation of pathogens. Because of this, analysing such outbreaks can be useful for understanding the transmission dynamics of the pathogens involved, and particularly so for yet understudied pathogens such as Zika virus. Here, we compared three outbreaks of dengue and Zika virus in two different island settings in Micronesia, the Yap Main Islands and Fais, using a mathematical model of transmission dynamics and making full use of commonalities in disease and setting between the outbreaks. We found that the estimated reproduction numbers for Zika and dengue were similar when considered in the same setting, but that, conversely, reproduction number for the same disease can vary considerably by setting. On the Yap Main Islands, we estimated a reproduction number of 8.0-16 (95% Credible Interval (CI)) for the dengue outbreak and 4.8-14 (95% CI) for the Zika outbreak, whereas for the dengue outbreak on Fais our estimate was 28-102 (95% CI). We further found that the proportion of cases of Zika reported was smaller (95% CI 1.4%-1.9%) than that of dengue (95% CI: 47%-61%). We confirmed these results in extensive sensitivity analysis. They suggest that models for dengue transmission can be useful for estimating the predicted dynamics of Zika transmission, but care must be taken when extrapolating findings from one setting to another.
| S-EPMC5142772 | biostudies-other
Project description:Phylogenetic studies with Zika virus (ZIKV) have been conducted in Brazil. In this study, we sequenced 8 new sequences of the ZIKV envelope (E) gene from strains of cases from the Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul states in 2016. A low phylogenetic signal was observed, with more than 40% of unresolved quartets, and the Maximum Likelihood Tree grouped all sequences in the Brazilian branches within the Asian genotype. In addition, a Shannon entropy analysis was conducted, showing a high stability in the E protein through the ZIKV polyprotein. Taken together, these results suggest a high degree of conservation in the ZIKV E gene from the recent American outbreaks.
| S-EPMC7688768 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn the French Territories in the Americas (FTA), the risk of birth defects possibly associated with Zika virus (ZIKV) infection was 7.0% (95%CI: 5.0 to 9.5) among foetuses/infants of 546 women with symptomatic RT-PCR confirmed ZIKV infection during pregnancy. Many of these defects were isolated measurement-based microcephaly (i.e. without any detected brain or clinical abnormalities) or mild neurological conditions. We wanted to estimate the proportion of such minor findings among live births of women who were pregnant in the same region during the outbreak period but who were not infected with ZIKV.MethodsIn Guadeloupe, pregnant women were recruited at the time of delivery and tested for ZIKV infection. The outcomes of live born infants of ZIKV non-infected women were compared to those of ZIKV-exposed live born infants in Guadeloupe, extracted from the FTA prospective cohort.ResultsOf 490 live born infants without exposure to ZIKV, 42 infants (8.6%, 95%CI: 6.2-11.4) had mild abnormalities that have been described as 'potentially linked to ZIKV infection'; all but one of these was isolated measurement-based microcephaly. Among the 241 live born infants with ZIKV exposure, the proportion of such abnormalities, using the same definition, was similar (6.6%, 95%CI: 3.8-10.6).ConclusionsIsolated anthropometric abnormalities and mild neurological conditions were as prevalent among infants with and without in-utero ZIKV exposure. If such abnormalities had not been considered as 'potentially linked to ZIKV' in the original prospective cohort in Guadeloupe, the overall estimate of the risk of birth defects considered due to the virus would have been significantly lower, at approximately 1.6% (95% CI: 0.4-4.1).Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02916732).
| S-EPMC7928479 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundZika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region in 2013, with serious implications for population health in the region. In 2016, the World Health Organization declared the ZIKV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following a cluster of associated neurological disorders and neonatal malformations. In 2017, Zika cases declined, but future incidence in LAC remains uncertain due to gaps in our understanding, considerable variation in surveillance and the lack of a comprehensive collation of data from affected countries.MethodsOur analysis combines information on confirmed and suspected Zika cases across LAC countries and a spatio-temporal dynamic transmission model for ZIKV infection to determine key transmission parameters and projected incidence in 90 major cities within 35 countries. Seasonality was determined by spatio-temporal estimates of Aedes aegypti vectorial capacity. We used country and state-level data from 2015 to mid-2017 to infer key model parameters, country-specific disease reporting rates, and the 2018 projected incidence. A 10-fold cross-validation approach was used to validate parameter estimates to out-of-sample epidemic trajectories.ResultsThere was limited transmission in 2015, but in 2016 and 2017 there was sufficient opportunity for wide-spread ZIKV transmission in most cities, resulting in the depletion of susceptible individuals. We predict that the highest number of cases in 2018 would present within some Brazilian States (Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro), Colombia and French Guiana, but the estimated number of cases were no more than a few hundred. Model estimates of the timing of the peak in incidence were correlated (p?<?0.05) with the reported peak in incidence. The reporting rate varied across countries, with lower reporting rates for those with only confirmed cases compared to those who reported both confirmed and suspected cases.ConclusionsThe findings suggest that the ZIKV epidemic is by and large over within LAC, with incidence projected to be low in most cities in 2018. Local low levels of transmission are probable, but the estimated rate of infection suggests that most cities have a population with high levels of herd immunity.
| S-EPMC6169075 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Ecologists are increasingly involved in the pandemic prediction process. In the course of the Zika outbreak in the Americas, several ecological models were developed to forecast the potential global distribution of the disease. Conflicting results produced by alternative methods are unresolved, hindering the development of appropriate public health forecasts. We compare ecological niche models and experimentally-driven mechanistic forecasts for Zika transmission in the continental United States. We use generic and uninformed stochastic county-level simulations to demonstrate the downstream epidemiological consequences of conflict among ecological models, and show how assumptions and parameterization in the ecological and epidemiological models propagate uncertainty and produce downstream model conflict. We conclude by proposing a basic consensus method that could resolve conflicting models of potential outbreak geography and seasonality. Our results illustrate the usually-undocumented margin of uncertainty that could emerge from using any one of these predictions without reservation or qualification. In the short term, ecologists face the task of developing better post hoc consensus that accurately forecasts spatial patterns of Zika virus outbreaks. Ultimately, methods are needed that bridge the gap between ecological and epidemiological approaches to predicting transmission and realistically capture both outbreak size and geography.
| S-EPMC5862882 | biostudies-other
Project description:Zika virus epidemics have potential large-scale population effects. Controlled studies of mice and nonhuman primates indicate that Zika affects fecundity, raising concerns about miscarriage in human populations. In regions of Brazil, Zika risk peaked months before residents learned about the epidemic and its relation to congenital anomalies. This spatiotemporal variation supports analysis of both biological effects of Zika infection on fertility and the effects of learning about Zika risk on reproductive behavior. Causal inference techniques used with vital statistics indicate that the epidemic caused reductions in birth cohort size of approximately one-quarter 18 months after Zika infection risk peaked but 10 months after public health messages advocated childbearing delay. The evidence is consistent with small but not statistically detectable biological reductions in fecundity, as well as large strategic changes in reproductive behavior to temporally align childbearing with reduced risk to infant health. The behavioral effects are larger for more-educated and older women, which may reflect facilitated access to information and to family planning services within high-risk, mosquito-infested urban locations as well as perceptions about the opportunity costs of risks to pregnancy and infant survival.
| S-EPMC7606566 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Zika pandemic sparked intense interest in whether immune interactions among dengue virus serotypes 1 to 4 (DENV1 to -4) extend to the closely related Zika virus (ZIKV). We investigated prospective pediatric cohorts in Nicaragua that experienced sequential DENV1 to -3 (2004 to 2015), Zika (2016 to 2017), and DENV2 (2018 to 2020) epidemics. Risk of symptomatic DENV2 infection and severe disease was elevated by one prior ZIKV infection, one prior DENV infection, or one prior DENV infection followed by one ZIKV infection, compared with being flavivirus-naïve. By contrast, multiple prior DENV infections reduced dengue risk. Further, although high preexisting anti-DENV antibody titers protected against DENV1, DENV3, and ZIKV disease, intermediate titers induced by previous ZIKV or DENV infection enhanced future risk of DENV2 disease and severity, as well as DENV3 severity. The observation that prior ZIKV infection can modulate dengue disease severity like a DENV serotype poses challenges to development of dengue and Zika vaccines.
| S-EPMC8274975 | biostudies-literature