Dataset Information

Smoking Behavior and Healthcare Expenditure in the United States, 1992-2009: Panel Data Estimates.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Reductions in smoking in Arizona and California have been shown to be associated with reduced per capita healthcare expenditures in these states compared to control populations in the rest of the US. This paper extends that analysis to all states and estimates changes in healthcare expenditure attributable to changes in aggregate measures of smoking behavior in all states.

Methods and findings

State per capita healthcare expenditure is modeled as a function of current smoking prevalence, mean cigarette consumption per smoker, other demographic and economic factors, and cross-sectional time trends using a fixed effects panel data regression on annual time series data for each the 50 states and the District of Columbia for the years 1992 through 2009. We found that 1% relative reductions in current smoking prevalence and mean packs smoked per current smoker are associated with 0.118% (standard error [SE] 0.0259%, p < 0.001) and 0.108% (SE 0.0253%, p < 0.001) reductions in per capita healthcare expenditure (elasticities). The results of this study are subject to the limitations of analysis of aggregate observational data, particularly that a study of this nature that uses aggregate data and a relatively small sample size cannot, by itself, establish a causal connection between smoking behavior and healthcare costs. Historical regional variations in smoking behavior (including those due to the effects of state tobacco control programs, smoking restrictions, and differences in taxation) are associated with substantial differences in per capita healthcare expenditures across the United States. Those regions (and the states in them) that have lower smoking have substantially lower medical costs. Likewise, those that have higher smoking have higher medical costs. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that these results are robust.

Conclusions

Changes in healthcare expenditure appear quickly after changes in smoking behavior. A 10% relative drop in smoking in every state is predicted to be followed by an expected $63 billion reduction (in 2012 US dollars) in healthcare expenditure the next year. State and national policies that reduce smoking should be part of short term healthcare cost containment.

SUBMITTER: Lightwood J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4862673 | biostudies-literature | 2016 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Smoking Behavior and Healthcare Expenditure in the United States, 1992-2009: Panel Data Estimates.

Lightwood James J Glantz Stanton A SA

PLoS medicine 20160510 5

<h4>Background</h4>Reductions in smoking in Arizona and California have been shown to be associated with reduced per capita healthcare expenditures in these states compared to control populations in the rest of the US. This paper extends that analysis to all states and estimates changes in healthcare expenditure attributable to changes in aggregate measures of smoking behavior in all states.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>State per capita healthcare expenditure is modeled as a function of current s ...[more]

PMID: 27163933

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Project description:The timing of prenatal exposure to tobacco cigarette smoking can be crucial for the developing fetus. Pushing the field beyond prior pregnancy trimester-focused smoking estimates, we estimated month-specific prevalence proportions for tobacco cigarette smoking among pregnant and non-pregnant women of the United States, with consideration of tobacco dependence (TD) as well. In advance, we posited that pregnancy onset might prompt smoking cessation in early months, before the end of the 1st trimester, and that TD might account for sustained smoking in later months, especially months 8-9, when there are added reasons to quit. Estimates are from the 2002-2009 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health Restricted-Data Analysis System (R-DAS), with large nationally representative samples of US civilians, including 12-44 year old women (n ~ 70,000) stratified by pregnancy status and month of pregnancy, with multi-item assessment of TD as well as recently active smoking. Age was held constant via the Breslow-Day indirect standardization approach, a methodological detail of potential interest to other research teams conducting online R-DAS analyses. Among 12-44 year old women in Month 1 of pregnancy, as well as non-pregnant women, just over one in four was a recently active smoker (26-27 %), and approximately one-half of these smokers qualified as a TD case (52 %). Corresponding estimates for women in Month 3 were 17.6 % and two-thirds, respectively, lending some support for our advance hypotheses. Nonetheless, our a priori TD hypothesis about Months 8-9 seems to be contradicted: an increased concentration of TD among smokers surfaced early in pregnancy. Evidence of a possible ameliorative pregnancy effect on smoking prevalence as well as TD's effect on smoking persistence might be seen quite early in pregnancy. Substitution of a month-specific view for the traditional trimester view sheds new light on how pregnancy might shape smoking behavior before the end of trimester 1, with TD seeming to thwart a public health goal of 100 % cessation, early in pregnancy.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:Out-of-sample forecasts are used to evaluate the predictive adequacy of a previously published national model of the relationship between smoking behavior and real per capita health care expenditure using state level aggregate data. In the previously published analysis, the elasticities between changes in state adult current smoking prevalence and mean cigarette consumption per adult current smoker and healthcare expenditures were 0.118 and 0.108 This new analysis provides evidence that the model forecasts out-of-sample well. METHODS:Out-of-sample predictive performance was used to find the best specification of trend variables and the best model to bridge a break in survey data used in the analysis. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to calculate forecast intervals for the effect of changes in smoking behavior on expected real per capita healthcare expenditures. RESULTS:The model specification produced good-out-of-sample forecasts and stable recursive regression parameter estimates spanning the break in survey methodology. In 2014, a 1% relative reduction in adult current smoking prevalence and mean cigarette consumption per adult current smoker decreased real per capita healthcare expenditure by 0.104% and 0.113% the following year, respectively (elasticity). A permanent relative reduction of 5% reduces expected real per capita healthcare expenditures $99 (95% CI $44, $154) in the next year and $31.5 billion for the entire US (in 2014 dollars), holding other factors constant. The reductions accumulate linearly for at least five years following annual permanent decreases of 5% each year. Given the limitations of time series modelling in a relatively short time series, the effect of changes in smoking behavior may occur over several years, even though the model contains only one lag for the explanatory variables. CONCLUSION:Reductions in smoking produce substantial savings in real per capita healthcare expenditure in short to medium term. A 5% relative drop in smoking prevalence (about a 0.87% reduction in absolute prevalence) combined with a 5% drop in consumption per remaining smoker (about 16 packs/year) would be followed by a $31.5 billion reduction in healthcare expenditure (in 2014 dollars).

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Dataset Information

Smoking Behavior and Healthcare Expenditure in the United States, 1992-2009: Panel Data Estimates.

Background

Methods and findings

Conclusions

Publications

Smoking Behavior and Healthcare Expenditure in the United States, 1992-2009: Panel Data Estimates.

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