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Cybercare 2.0: meeting the challenge of the global burden of disease in 2030.

ABSTRACT: In this paper, we propose to advance and transform today's healthcare system using a model of networked health care called Cybercare. Cybercare means "health care in cyberspace" - for example, doctors consulting with patients via videoconferencing across a distributed network; or patients receiving care locally - in neighborhoods, "minute clinics," and homes - using information technologies such as telemedicine, smartphones, and wearable sensors to link to tertiary medical specialists. This model contrasts with traditional health care, in which patients travel (often a great distance) to receive care from providers in a central hospital. The Cybercare model shifts health care provision from hospital to home; from specialist to generalist; and from treatment to prevention. Cybercare employs advanced technology to deliver services efficiently across the distributed network - for example, using telemedicine, wearable sensors and cell phones to link patients to specialists and upload their medical data in near-real time; using information technology (IT) to rapidly detect, track, and contain the spread of a global pandemic; or using cell phones to manage medical care in a disaster situation. Cybercare uses seven "pillars" of technology to provide medical care: genomics; telemedicine; robotics; simulation, including virtual and augmented reality; artificial intelligence (AI), including intelligent agents; the electronic medical record (EMR); and smartphones. All these technologies are evolving and blending. The technologies are integrated functionally because they underlie the Cybercare network, and/or form part of the care for patients using that distributed network. Moving health care provision to a networked, distributed model will save money, improve outcomes, facilitate access, improve security, increase patient and provider satisfaction, and may mitigate the international global burden of disease. In this paper we discuss how Cybercare is being implemented now, and envision its growth by 2030.

SUBMITTER: Rosen JM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4901101 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cybercare 2.0: meeting the challenge of the global burden of disease in 2030.

Rosen Joseph M JM Kun Luis L Mosher Robyn E RE Grigg Elliott E Merrell Ronald C RC Macedonia Christian C Klaudt-Moreau Julien J Price-Smith Andrew A Geiling James J

Health and technology 20160527

In this paper, we propose to advance and transform today's healthcare system using a model of networked health care called Cybercare. Cybercare means "health care in cyberspace" - for example, doctors consulting with patients via videoconferencing across a distributed network; or patients receiving care locally - in neighborhoods, "minute clinics," and homes - using information technologies such as telemedicine, smartphones, and wearable sensors to link to tertiary medical specialists. This mode ...[more]

PMID: 27358760

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Project description:BackgroundGlobal and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results.Methods and findingsRelatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios-baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic-based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availability of death registration data and the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, body mass index, and other inputs. In all three scenarios there is a dramatic shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable disease causes. The risk of death for children younger than 5 y is projected to fall by nearly 50% in the baseline scenario between 2002 and 2030. The proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012. Under the optimistic scenario, which also assumes increased prevention activity, HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to drop to 3.7 million in 2030. Total tobacco-attributable deaths are projected to rise from 5.4 million in 2005 to 6.4 million in 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030 under our baseline scenario. Tobacco is projected to kill 50% more people in 2015 than HIV/AIDS, and to be responsible for 10% of all deaths globally. The three leading causes of burden of disease in 2030 are projected to include HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischaemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario, and the third leading cause ahead of ischaemic heart disease in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015.ConclusionsThese projections represent a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions. Despite the wide uncertainty ranges around future projections, they enable us to appreciate better the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends, such as the ageing of the population, the continued spread of HIV/AIDS in many regions, and the continuation of the epidemiological transition in developing countries. The results depend strongly on the assumption that future mortality trends in poor countries will have a relationship to economic and social development similar to those that have occurred in the higher-income countries.

Project description:BackgroundThis study aims to assess the global incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of thyroid cancer between 1990 and 2030.MethodsOur study analysed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data from 204 countries, spanning 1990-2019. It focused on age-standardised thyroid cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), using the sociodemographic index (SDI) for assessing socioeconomic levels. Generalised additive models (GAMs) projected thyroid cancer trends for 2020-2030.ResultsThe global burden of thyroid cancer is predicted to increase significantly from 1990 to 2030. The number of thyroid cancer incidence cases is projected to rise from 233 846.64 in 2019 to 305 078.08 by 2030, representing an approximate 30.46% increase. The ASIR (age-standardised incidence rate) is expected to continue its upward trend (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = 0.83). The age-standardised death rate (ASDR) for thyroid cancer is projected to decline in both genders, more notably in women (EAPC = -0.34) compared to men (EAPC = -0.17). The burden of disease escalates with advancing age, with significant regional disparities. Regions with lower SDI, particularly in South Asia, are anticipated to witness substantial increases in thyroid cancer incidence from 2020 to 2030. The overall disease burden is expected to rise, especially in countries with low to middle SDI, reflecting broader socio-economic and health care shifts.ConclusionsThis study highlights significant regional and gender-specific variations in thyroid cancer, with notable increases in incidence rates, particularly in areas like South Asia. These trends suggest improvements in diagnostic capabilities and the influence of socio-economic factors. Additionally, the observed decline in mortality rates across various regions reflects advancements in thyroid cancer management. The findings underline the critical importance of regionally tailored prevention strategies, robust cancer registries, and public health initiatives to address the evolving landscape of thyroid cancer and mitigate health disparities globally.

Project description:Background Brazil is the world’s fifth most populous nation, and is currently experimenting a fast demographic aging process in a context of scarce resources and social inequalities. To understand the health profile of older adults in Brazil is fundamental for planning public policies. Methods The estimates were derived from data obtained through the collaboration between the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation of the University of Washington. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics provided the population estimates. Data on causes of death came from the Mortality Information System. To calculate morbidity, population-based studies on the prevalence of diseases in Brazil were comprehensively searched, in addition to information obtained from national databases such as the Hospital Information System, the Outpatient Information System, and the Injury Information System. We presented the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates among Brazilian older adults (60+ years old) for life expectancy at birth (LE), healthy life expectancy (HALE), cause-specific mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), from 2000 to 2017. Results LE at birth significantly increased from 71.3?years (95% UI to 70.9-71.8) to 75.2?years (95% UI 74.7-75.7). There was a trend of increasing HALE, from 62.2?years (95% UI 59.54-64.5) to 65.5?years (95% UI 62.6-68.0). The proportion of DALYs among older adults increased from 7.3 to 10.3%. Chronic noncommunicable diseases are the leading cause of death among middle aged and older adults, while Alzheimer’s disease is a leading cause only among older adults. Mood disorders, musculoskeletal pain, and hearing or vision losses are among the leading causes of disability. Conclusions The increase in LE and the decrease of the DALYs rates are probably results of the improvement of social conditions and health policies. However, the smaller increase of HALE than LE means that despite living more, people spend a substantial time of their old age with disability and illness. Preventable or potentially controllable diseases are responsible for most of the burden of disease among Brazilian older adults. Health investments are necessary to obtain longevity with quality of life in Brazil.

Project description:BackgroundNo studies have updated the epidemiologic changes in non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease (DMVD) since 2019, thus this study utilized data from the Global Study of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 (GBD2019) to assess the burden of DMVD in 204 countries and territories over the period 1990-2019, as well as changes in the prevalence, incidence, deaths and changes in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).MethodsUsing the results from the GBD2019, analyzing the incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs rates, as well as their age-standardized rates (ASR). Based on the human development index (HDI), the socio-demographic index (SDI), age, and sex.ResultsIn 2019, there were 24.229 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 23.081-25.419 million) existing cases of DMVD worldwide, with 1.064 million (95% UI 1.010-1.122 million) new cases and 0.034 million (95% UI 0.028-0.043 million) deaths, and 0.883 million (95% UI 0.754-1.092 million) disability-adjusted life years. The incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs of DMVD and their ASR showed significant differences across sex, age groups, regions, and countries from 1990 to 2019. It is projected that by 2030, the incidence of DMVD in females will be 0.72 million with an ASR of 15.59 per 100,000 population, 0.51 million in males with an ASR of 11.75 per 100,000 population, and a total incidence of 1.23 million with an ASR of 14.03 per 100,000 population.ConclusionsDMVD remains a significant public health problem that cannot be ignored, despite a decreasing trend in the ASR of global incidence, prevalence, deaths and DALYs from 1990 to 2019. However, we note an adverse development trend in countries with low socio-demographic indexes and seriously aging societies, and sex inequality is particularly prominent. This indicates the need to reposition current prevention and treatment strategies, with some national health administrations developing corresponding strategies for preventing an increase in DMVD based on local health, education, economic conditions, sex differences, and age differences.

Dataset Information

Cybercare 2.0: meeting the challenge of the global burden of disease in 2030.

Publications

Cybercare 2.0: meeting the challenge of the global burden of disease in 2030.

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