Modelling NAFLD disease burden in four Asian regions-2019-2030.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Estes C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7154715 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Modelling NAFLD disease burden in four Asian regions-2019-2030.
Estes Chris C Chan Henry L Y HLY Chien Rong N RN Chuang Wan-Long WL Fung James J Goh George Boon-Bee GB Hu Tsung H TH Huang Jee-Fu JF Jang Byoung K BK Jun Dae W DW Kao Jia H JH Lee Jin-Woo JW Lin Han-Chieh HC Razavi-Shearer Kathryn K Seto Wai-Kay WK Wong Grace L-H GL Wong Vincent W-S VW Razavi Homie H
Alimentary pharmacology & therapeutics 20200304 8
<h4>Background</h4>Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for an increasing proportion of liver disease in the Asia-Pacific region. Many areas in the region are experiencing epidemics of metabolic syndrome among rapidly ageing populations.<h4>Aims</h4>To estimate using modelling the growth in NAFLD populations, including cases with significant fibrosis that are most likely to experience advanced liver disease and related mortality.<h4>Methods</ ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundNonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a growing proportion of liver disease cases, and there is a need to better understand future disease burden. We used a modelling framework to forecast the burden of disease of NAFLD and NASH for Canada.MethodsWe used a Markov model to forecast fibrosis progression from stage F0 (no fibrosis) to stage F4 (compensated cirrhosis) and subsequent progression to decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation and liver-related death among Canadians with NAFLD from 2019 to 2030. We used historical trends for obesity prevalence among adults to estimate longitudinal changes in the number of incident NAFLD cases.ResultsThe model projected that the number of NAFLD cases would increase by 20% between 2019 and 2030, from an estimated 7 757 000 cases to 9 305 000 cases. Increases in advanced fibrosis cases were relatively greater, as the number of model-estimated prevalent stage F3 cases would increase by 65%, to 357 000, and that of prevalent stage F4 cases would increase by 95%, to 195 000. Estimated incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis would increase by up to 95%, and the number of annual NAFLD-related deaths would double, to 5600.InterpretationIncreasing rates of obesity translate into increasing NAFLD-related cases of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma and related mortality. Prevention efforts should be aimed at reducing the incidence of NAFLD and slowing fibrosis progression among those already affected.
| S-EPMC7286622 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND AND AIM:Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD burden in Australia through 2030. METHODS:A model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer, and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long-term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer. RESULTS:Prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5 551 000 [4 748 000-6 306 000] cases in 2019) to 7 024 000 [5 838 000-7 886 000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1900 (1100-3300) deaths in 2019 to 3500 (2100-6100) deaths in 2030. CONCLUSIONS:Restraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden.
| S-EPMC7540570 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Mental disorders are the leading contributors to the globally nonfatal burden of disease. This study was aimed to estimate the burden of mental disorders in Asian countries. Based on GBD 2019, the prevalence and disability-adjusted life of years (DALYs) rates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were estimated in Asian countries. Predictions for the future burden of 8 selected countries, ranks of the burden of mental disorders and correlations with Sociodemographic Index (SDI) were also estimated. During the past 3 decades, while the number of DALYs of mental disorders increased from 43.9 million (95% UI: 32.5-57.2) to 69.0 million (95% UI: 51.0-89.7), the age-standardized rates of DALYs of mental disorders remained largely consistent from 1452.2 (95% UI: 1080.16-1888.53) per 100,000 population in 1990 to 1434.82 (95% UI: 1065.02-1867.27) per 100,000 population in 2019, ranked as the eighth most significant disease burden in Asia in 2019. Depressive disorders (37.2%) were the leading contributors to the age-standardized DALY rates of mental disorders in Asia, followed by anxiety disorders (21.5%). The age-standardized DALY rates in females were higher than their male counterparts, both peaked at 30-34 years. The age-standardized DALY rates were predicted to remain stable, with the number of DALYs presented an upward trend in the future. There was no significant correlation between the burden of mental disorders and SDI. All mental disorders ranked higher in 2019, compared in 1990. To reduce this burden, urgent measures for prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation for mental disorders need to be taken by Asian governments.
| S-EPMC10978857 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWith increasing life expectancy in China, the associated burden of low back and neck pain (spinal pain) on the healthcare system increases, posing a substantial public health challenge. This study aimed to investigate trends in spinal pain incidence across China from 1990 to 2019 and to predict incidence trends between 2020 and 2030.MethodsData were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) between 1990 and 2019 were calculated using Joinpoint regression analysis. The effects of age, period, and cohort on spinal pain were estimated by an age-period-cohort model. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast incidence trends from 2020 to 2030.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of low back pain (LBP) significantly decreased in both male and female subjects, while the ASIR of neck pain (NP) slightly increased regardless of sex. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence rates of LBP decreased in all age groups, and incidence rates of NP increased after 45 years old among men and women. The age effects showed that the relative risks (RR) of LBP incidence increased with age, and the group aged 40-49 years had the highest RR for NP incidence, regardless of sex. Period effects showed that the risk of NP continuously increased with increasing time periods, but not in LBP. The cohort effect showed a continuously decreasing trend in later birth cohorts. The prediction results of the ARIMA model show that the ASIR of NP in both male and female subjects in China shows an increasing trend in the next 10 years, and the ASIR of LBP increased in male but decreased in female subjects.ConclusionSpinal pain has remained a major public health burden over the past 30 years in China and will likely increase further with population aging. Therefore, spinal pain should be a priority for future research on prevention and therapy, and is especially critical as the aging population increases in China.
| S-EPMC9633916 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNo studies have updated the epidemiologic changes in non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease (DMVD) since 2019, thus this study utilized data from the Global Study of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 (GBD2019) to assess the burden of DMVD in 204 countries and territories over the period 1990-2019, as well as changes in the prevalence, incidence, deaths and changes in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).MethodsUsing the results from the GBD2019, analyzing the incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs rates, as well as their age-standardized rates (ASR). Based on the human development index (HDI), the socio-demographic index (SDI), age, and sex.ResultsIn 2019, there were 24.229 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 23.081-25.419 million) existing cases of DMVD worldwide, with 1.064 million (95% UI 1.010-1.122 million) new cases and 0.034 million (95% UI 0.028-0.043 million) deaths, and 0.883 million (95% UI 0.754-1.092 million) disability-adjusted life years. The incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs of DMVD and their ASR showed significant differences across sex, age groups, regions, and countries from 1990 to 2019. It is projected that by 2030, the incidence of DMVD in females will be 0.72 million with an ASR of 15.59 per 100,000 population, 0.51 million in males with an ASR of 11.75 per 100,000 population, and a total incidence of 1.23 million with an ASR of 14.03 per 100,000 population.ConclusionsDMVD remains a significant public health problem that cannot be ignored, despite a decreasing trend in the ASR of global incidence, prevalence, deaths and DALYs from 1990 to 2019. However, we note an adverse development trend in countries with low socio-demographic indexes and seriously aging societies, and sex inequality is particularly prominent. This indicates the need to reposition current prevention and treatment strategies, with some national health administrations developing corresponding strategies for preventing an increase in DMVD based on local health, education, economic conditions, sex differences, and age differences.
| S-EPMC11317355 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWe aimed to estimate the disease burden of Tuberculosis (TB) and return on investment of TB care in selected high-burden countries of the Western Pacific Region (WPR) until 2030.MethodsWe projected the TB epidemic in Viet Nam and Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) 2020-2030 using a mathematical model under various scenarios: counterfactual (no TB care); baseline (TB care continues at current levels); and 12 different diagnosis and treatment interventions. We retrieved previous modeling results for China and the Philippines. We pooled the new and existing information on incidence and deaths in the four countries, covering >80% of the TB burden in WPR. We estimated the return on investment of TB care and interventions in Viet Nam and Lao PDR using a Solow model.FindingsIn the baseline scenario, TB incidence in the four countries decreased from 97•0/100,000/year (2019) to 90•1/100,000/year (2030), and TB deaths from 83,300/year (2019) to 71,100/year (2030). Active case finding (ACF) strategies (screening people not seeking care for respiratory symptoms) were the most effective single interventions. Return on investment (2020-2030) for TB care in Viet Nam and Lao PDR ranged US$4-US$49/dollar spent; additional interventions brought up to US$2•7/dollar spent.InterpretationIn the modeled countries, TB incidence will only modestly decrease without additional interventions. Interventions that include ACF can reduce TB burden but achieving the End TB incidence and mortality targets will be difficult without new transformational tools (e.g. vaccine, new diagnostic tools, shorter treatment). However, TB care, even at its current level, can bring a multiple-fold return on investment.FundingWorld Health Organization Western Pacific Regional Office; Swiss National Science Foundation Grant 163878.
| S-EPMC8315379 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLack of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence data in (Norwegian) high-risk groups impedes the ability to make informed decisions on prevention measures. Thus we rely on modelling to estimate the incidence and burden of HCV infections.MethodsWe constructed a compartmental model for HCV infections in Norway among active and former people who inject drugs (PWIDs). We based yearly transition rates on literature. The model was fitted to absolute numbers of hepatitis C associated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death from national data sources (2000-2013). We estimated the number (95%CI) of HCV infections, cirrhosis, HCC and death and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) due to HCV infections in Norway, 1973-2030. We assumed treatment rates in the projected period were similar to those in 2013.ResultsThe estimated proportion of chronic HCV (including those with cirrhosis and HCC) among PWIDs was stable from 2000 (49%; 4441/9108) to 2013 (43%; 3667/8587). We estimated that the incidence of HCV among PWIDs was 381 new infections in 2015. The estimated number of people with cirrhosis, HCC, and liver transplant was predicted to increase until 2022 (1537 people). DALYs among active PWIDs estimated to peak in 2006 (3480 DALYs) and decrease to 1870 DALYs in 2030. Chronic HCV infection contributes most to the total burden of HCV infection, and peaks at 1917 DALYs (52%) in 2007. The burden of HCV related to PWID increased until 2006 with 81/100,000 DALYs inhabitants and decreased to 68/100,000 DALYs in 2015.ConclusionThe burden of HCV associated with injecting drug use is considerable, with chronic HCV infection contributing most to the total burden. This model can be used to estimate the impact of different interventions on the HCV burden in Norway and to perform cost-benefit analyses of various public health measures.
| S-EPMC5543437 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveDespite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland.MethodsCHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted.ResultsProjected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses.ConclusionsFeasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.
| S-EPMC4589484 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNumerous studies have already identified an association between excessive consumption of red meat and colorectal cancer (CRC). However, there has been a lack of detailed understanding regarding the disease burden linked to diet high in red meat and CRC.ObjectiveWe aim to offer evidence-based guidance for developing effective strategies that can mitigate the elevated CRC burden in certain countries.MethodsWe used the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to evaluate global, regional, and national mortality rates and disability-adjusted Life years (DALYs) related to diet high in red meat. We also considered factors such as sex, age, the socio-demographic index (SDI), and evaluated the cross-national inequalities. Furthermore, we utilized DALYs data from 204 countries and regions to measure cross-country inequalities of CRC by calculating the slope index of inequality and concentration index as standard indicators of absolute and relative inequalities.DiscussionThe results show that globally, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability adjusted life year rate (ASDR) related to CRC due to diet high in red meat have decreased, with estimated annual percent change (EAPCs) of -0.32% (95% CI -0.37 to -0.28) and-0.18% (95% CI -0.25 to -0.11). Notably, the burden was higher among males and the elderly. The slope index of inequality rose from 22.0 (95% CI 18.1 to 25.9) in 1990 to 32.9 (95% CI 28.3 to 37.5) in 2019 and the concentration index fell from 59.5 (95% CI 46.4 to 72.6) in 1990 to 48.9 (95% CI 34.6 to 63.1) in 2019. Also, according to our projections, global ASDR and ASMR might tend to increase up to 2030.ConclusionASMR and ASDR for CRC associated with high red meat diets declined globally from 1990 to 2019, but the absolute number of cases is still rising, with men and the elderly being more affected. CRC associated with diets high in red meat exhibits significant income inequality, placing a disproportionate burden on wealthier countries. Moreover, according to our projections, ASMR and ASDR are likely to increase globally by 2030. In order to address this intractable disease problem, understanding changes in global and regional epidemiologic trends is critical for policy makers and others.
| S-EPMC10973012 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGlobal and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results.Methods and findingsRelatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios-baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic-based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availability of death registration data and the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, body mass index, and other inputs. In all three scenarios there is a dramatic shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable disease causes. The risk of death for children younger than 5 y is projected to fall by nearly 50% in the baseline scenario between 2002 and 2030. The proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012. Under the optimistic scenario, which also assumes increased prevention activity, HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to drop to 3.7 million in 2030. Total tobacco-attributable deaths are projected to rise from 5.4 million in 2005 to 6.4 million in 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030 under our baseline scenario. Tobacco is projected to kill 50% more people in 2015 than HIV/AIDS, and to be responsible for 10% of all deaths globally. The three leading causes of burden of disease in 2030 are projected to include HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischaemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario, and the third leading cause ahead of ischaemic heart disease in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015.ConclusionsThese projections represent a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions. Despite the wide uncertainty ranges around future projections, they enable us to appreciate better the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends, such as the ageing of the population, the continued spread of HIV/AIDS in many regions, and the continuation of the epidemiological transition in developing countries. The results depend strongly on the assumption that future mortality trends in poor countries will have a relationship to economic and social development similar to those that have occurred in the higher-income countries.
| S-EPMC1664601 | biostudies-literature