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A Bayesian Approach to Identifying New Risk Factors for Dementia: A Nationwide Population-Based Study.

ABSTRACT: Dementia is one of the most disabling and burdensome health conditions worldwide. In this study, we identified new potential risk factors for dementia from nationwide longitudinal population-based data by using Bayesian statistics.We first tested the consistency of the results obtained using Bayesian statistics with those obtained using classical frequentist probability for 4 recognized risk factors for dementia, namely severe head injury, depression, diabetes mellitus, and vascular diseases. Then, we used Bayesian statistics to verify 2 new potential risk factors for dementia, namely hearing loss and senile cataract, determined from the Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database.We included a total of 6546 (6.0%) patients diagnosed with dementia. We observed older age, female sex, and lower income as independent risk factors for dementia. Moreover, we verified the 4 recognized risk factors for dementia in the older Taiwanese population; their odds ratios (ORs) ranged from 3.469 to 1.207. Furthermore, we observed that hearing loss (OR?=?1.577) and senile cataract (OR?=?1.549) were associated with an increased risk of dementia.We found that the results obtained using Bayesian statistics for assessing risk factors for dementia, such as head injury, depression, DM, and vascular diseases, were consistent with those obtained using classical frequentist probability. Moreover, hearing loss and senile cataract were found to be potential risk factors for dementia in the older Taiwanese population. Bayesian statistics could help clinicians explore other potential risk factors for dementia and for developing appropriate treatment strategies for these patients.

SUBMITTER: Wen YH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4902349 | biostudies-literature | 2016 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Bayesian Approach to Identifying New Risk Factors for Dementia: A Nationwide Population-Based Study.

Wen Yen-Hsia YH Wu Shihn-Sheng SS Lin Chun-Hung Richard CR Tsai Jui-Hsiu JH Yang Pinchen P Chang Yang-Pei YP Tseng Kuan-Hua KH

Medicine 20160501 21

Dementia is one of the most disabling and burdensome health conditions worldwide. In this study, we identified new potential risk factors for dementia from nationwide longitudinal population-based data by using Bayesian statistics.We first tested the consistency of the results obtained using Bayesian statistics with those obtained using classical frequentist probability for 4 recognized risk factors for dementia, namely severe head injury, depression, diabetes mellitus, and vascular diseases. Th ...[more]

PMID: 27227925

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Project description:PURPOSE:The association between primary headaches, including tension-type headache (TTH) as one of the most common primary headache disorders, and dementia remains controversial. In this nationwide, population-based, retrospective, cohort study, we explored the potential association between TTH and dementia and examined sex, age, and comorbidities as risk factors for dementia. METHODS:Using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) claims data, the sample included 13908 subjects aged ?20 years with newly-diagnosed TTH in 2000-2006. The non-TTH group included 55632 randomly selected sex- and age-matched TTH-free individuals. All subjects were followed until dementia diagnosis, death, or the end of 2011. Patients with dementia, including vascular and non-vascular (including Alzheimer's) subtypes, were identified using International Classification of Diseases Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the risk of dementia and dementia-associated risk factors, such as migraine and other medical comorbidities. RESULTS:During the average follow-up of 8.14 years, the incidence density rates of dementia were 5.30 and 3.68/1,000 person-years in the TTH and non-TTH groups, respectively. Compared with the non-TTH group, the risks of dementia were 1.25 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-1.42) and 1.13 (95% CI, 1.01-1.27) times higher in the women and >65-year-old TTH group, respectively. TTH patients with comorbidities had a higher risk of dementia. TTH patients had a greater risk of non-vascular dementia (hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.09-1.34) than the non-TTH group. CONCLUSION:TTH patients have a future risk of dementia, indicating a potentially linked disease pathophysiology that warrants further study. The association between TTH and dementia is greater in women, older adults, and with comorbidities. Clinicians should be aware of potential dementia comorbidity in TTH patients.

Project description:To explore the risk factors of developing chronic pancreatitis (CP) in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) and develop a prediction score for CP. Using the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan, we obtained large, population-based data of 5971 eligible patients diagnosed with AP from 2000 to 2013. After excluding patients with obstructive pancreatitis and biliary pancreatitis and those with a follow-up period of less than 1 year, we conducted a multivariate analysis using the data of 3739 patients to identify the risk factors of CP and subsequently develop a scoring system that could predict the development of CP in patients with AP. In addition, we validated the scoring system using a validation cohort. Among the study subjects, 142 patients (12.98%) developed CP among patients with RAP. On the other hand, only 32 patients (1.21%) developed CP among patients with only one episode of AP. The multivariate analysis revealed that the presence of recurrent AP (RAP), alcoholism, smoking habit, and age of onset of < 55 years were the four important risk factors for CP. We developed a scoring system (risk score 1 and risk score 2) from the derivation cohort by classifying the patients into low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk categories based on similar magnitudes of hazard and validated the performance using another validation cohort. Using the prediction score model, the area under the curve (AUC) [95% confidence interval (CI)] in predicting the 5-year CP incidence in risk score 1 (without the number of AP episodes) was 0.83 (0.79, 0.87), whereas the AUC (95%CI) in risk score 2 (including the number of AP episodes) was 0.84 (0.80, 0.88). This result demonstrated that the risk score 2 has somewhat better prediction performance than risk score 1. However, both of them had similar performance between the derivation and validation cohorts. In the study,we identified the risk factors of CP and developed a prediction score model for CP.

Dataset Information

A Bayesian Approach to Identifying New Risk Factors for Dementia: A Nationwide Population-Based Study.

Publications

A Bayesian Approach to Identifying New Risk Factors for Dementia: A Nationwide Population-Based Study.

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