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Record dry summer in 2015 challenges precipitation projections in Central Europe.

ABSTRACT: Central Europe was characterized by a humid-temperate climate in the 20(th) century. Climate change projections suggest that climate in this area will shift towards warmer temperatures by the end of the 21(st) century, while projected precipitation changes are highly uncertain. Here we show that the 2015 summer rainfall was the lowest on record since 1901 in Central Europe, and that climate models that perform best in the three driest years of the historical time period 1901-2015 project stronger drying trends in the 21(st) century than models that perform best in the remaining years. Analyses of precipitation and derived soil moisture reveal that the 2015 event was drier than both the recent 2003 or 2010 extreme summers in Central Europe. Additionally there are large anomalies in satellite-derived vegetation greenness. In terms of precipitation and temperature anomalies, the 2015 summer in Central Europe is found to lie between historical climate in the region and that characteristic of the Mediterranean area. Even though the models best capturing past droughts are not necessarily generally more reliable in the future, the 2015 drought event illustrates that potential future drying trends have severe implications and could be stronger than commonly assumed from the entire IPCC AR5 model ensemble.

SUBMITTER: Orth R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4914956 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Global warming is pushing populations outside their range of physiological tolerance. According to the environmental envelope framework, the most vulnerable populations occur near the climatic edge of their species' distributions. In contrast, populations from the climatic center of the species range should be relatively buffered against climate warming. We tested this latter prediction using a combination of linear mixed effects and machine learning algorithms on an extensive, citizen-scientist generated dataset on the fruitbody productivity of the Burgundy (aka summer) truffle (Tuber aestivum Vittad.), a keystone, ectomycorrhizal tree-symbiont occurring on a wide range of temperate climates. T. aestivum's fruitbody productivity was monitored at 3-week resolution over up to 8 continuous years at 20 sites distributed in the climatic center of its European distribution in southwest Germany and Switzerland. We found that T. aestivum fruitbody production is more sensitive to summer drought than would be expected from the breadth of its species' climatic niche. The monitored populations occurring nearly 5°C colder than the edge of their species' climatic distribution. However, interannual fruitbody productivity (truffle mass year-1 ) fell by a median loss of 22% for every 1°C increase in summer temperature over a site's 30-year mean. Among the most productive monitored populations, the temperature sensitivity was even higher, with single summer temperature anomalies of 3°C sufficient to stop fruitbody production altogether. Interannual truffle productivity was also related to the phenology of host trees, with ~22 g less truffle mass for each 1-day reduction in the length of the tree growing season. Increasing summer drought extremes are therefore likely to reduce fruiting among summer truffle populations throughout Central Europe. Our results suggest that European T. aestivum may be a mosaic of vulnerable populations, sensitive to climate-driven declines at lower thresholds than implied by its species distribution model.

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Record dry summer in 2015 challenges precipitation projections in Central Europe.

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