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Evidence of long-term NAO influence on East-Central Europe winter precipitation from a guano-derived ?15N record.


ABSTRACT: Currently there is a scarcity of paleo-records related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), particularly in East-Central Europe (ECE). Here we report ?15N analysis of guano from a cave in NW Romania with the intent of reconstructing past variation in ECE hydroclimate and examine NAO impacts on winter precipitation. We argue that the ?15N values of guano indicate that the nitrogen cycle is hydrologically controlled and the ?15N values likely reflect winter precipitation related to nitrogen mineralization prior to the growing season. Drier conditions indicated by ?15N values at AD 1848-1852 and AD 1880-1930 correspond to the positive phase of the NAO. The increased frequency of negative phases of the NAO between AD 1940-1975 is contemporaneous with higher ?15N values (wetter conditions). A 4‰ decrease in ?15N values at the end of the 1970's corresponds to a strong reduction in precipitation associated with a shift from negative to positive phase of the NAO. Using the relationship between NAO index and ?15N values in guano for the instrumental period, we reconstructed NAO-like phases back to AD 1650. Our results advocate that ?15N values of guano offer a proxy of the NAO conditions in the more distant past, helping assess its predictability.

SUBMITTER: Cleary DM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5658435 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evidence of long-term NAO influence on East-Central Europe winter precipitation from a guano-derived δ<sup>15</sup>N record.

Cleary Daniel M DM   Wynn Jonathan G JG   Ionita Monica M   Forray Ferenc L FL   Onac Bogdan P BP  

Scientific reports 20171026 1


Currently there is a scarcity of paleo-records related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), particularly in East-Central Europe (ECE). Here we report δ<sup>15</sup>N analysis of guano from a cave in NW Romania with the intent of reconstructing past variation in ECE hydroclimate and examine NAO impacts on winter precipitation. We argue that the δ<sup>15</sup>N values of guano indicate that the nitrogen cycle is hydrologically controlled and the δ<sup>15</sup>N values likely reflect winter pre  ...[more]

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