Dataset Information

Positive Predictive Value of the WHO Clinical and Immunologic Criteria to Predict Viral Load Failure among Adults on First, or Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in Kenya.

ABSTRACT: Routine HIV viral load (VL) monitoring is the standard of care for persons receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in developed countries. Although the World Health Organization recommends annual VL monitoring of patients on ART, recognizing difficulties in conducting routine VL testing, the WHO continues to recommend targeted VL testing to confirm treatment failure for persons who meet selected immunologic and clinical criteria. Studies have measured positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value, sensitivity and specificity of these criteria among patients receiving first-line ART but not specifically among those on second-line or subsequent regimens. Between 2008 and 2011, adult ART patients in Nyanza, Kenya who met national clinical or immunologic criteria for treatment failure received targeted VL testing. We calculated PPV and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of these criteria to detect virologic treatment failure among patients receiving a) first-line ART, b) second/subsequent ART, and c) any regimen. Of 12,134 patient specimens tested, 2,874 (23.7%) were virologically confirmed as treatment failures. The PPV for 2,834 first-line ART patients who met either the clinical or immunologic criteria for treatment failure was 34.4% (95% CI 33.2-35.7), 33.1% (95% CI 24.7-42.3) for the 40 patients on second-line/subsequent regimens, and 33.4% (95% CI 33.1-35.6) for any ART. PPV, regardless of criteria, for first-line ART patients was lowest among patients over 44 years old and highest for patients aged 15 to 34 years. PPV of immunological and clinical criteria for correctly identifying treatment failure was similarly low for adult patients receiving either first-line or second-line/subsequent ART regimens. Our data confirm the inadequacy of clinical and immunologic criteria to correctly identify treatment failure and support the implementation of routine VL testing.

SUBMITTER: Waruru A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4934908 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Positive Predictive Value of the WHO Clinical and Immunologic Criteria to Predict Viral Load Failure among Adults on First, or Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in Kenya.

Waruru Anthony A Muttai Hellen H Ng'ang'a Lucy L Ackers Marta M Kim Andrea A Miruka Fredrick F Erick Opiyo O Okonji Julie J Ayuaya Tolbert T Schwarcz Sandra S

PloS one 20160706 7

Routine HIV viral load (VL) monitoring is the standard of care for persons receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in developed countries. Although the World Health Organization recommends annual VL monitoring of patients on ART, recognizing difficulties in conducting routine VL testing, the WHO continues to recommend targeted VL testing to confirm treatment failure for persons who meet selected immunologic and clinical criteria. Studies have measured positive predictive value (PPV), negative pre ...[more]

PMID: 27383834

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Project description:BackgroundMany individuals failing first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa never initiate second-line ART or do so after significant delay. For people on ART with a viral load more than 1000 copies/ml, the WHO recommends a second viral load measurement 3 months after the first viral load and enhanced adherence support. Switch to a second-line regimen is contingent upon a persistently elevated viral load more than 1000 copies/ml. Delayed second-line switch places patients at increased risk for opportunistic infections and mortality.MethodsTo assess the potential benefits of a simplified second-line ART switch strategy, we use an individual-based model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of ART which incorporates consideration of adherence and drug resistance, to compare predicted outcomes of two policies, defining first-line regimen failure for patients on efavirenz-based ART as either two consecutive viral load values more than 1000 copies/ml, with the second after an enhanced adherence intervention (implemented as per current WHO guidelines) or a single viral load value more than 1000 copies/ml. We simulated a range of setting-scenarios reflecting the breadth of the sub-Saharan African HIV epidemic, taking into account potential delays in defining failure and switch to second-line ART.FindingsThe use of a single viral load more than 1000 copies/ml to define ART failure would lead to a higher proportion of persons with nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor resistance switched to second-line ART [65 vs. 48%; difference 17% (90% range 14-20%)], resulting in a median 18% reduction in the rate of AIDS-related death over setting scenarios (90% range 6-30%; from a median of 3.1 to 2.5 per 100 person-years) over 3 years. The simplified strategy also is predicted to reduce the rate of AIDS conditions by a median of 31% (90% range 8-49%) among people on first-line ART with a viral load more than 1000 copies/ml in the past 6 months. For a country of 10 million adults (and a median of 880 000 people with HIV), we estimate that this approach would lead to a median of 1322 (90% range 67-3513) AIDS deaths averted per year over 3 years. For South Africa this would represent around 10 215 deaths averted annually.InterpretationAs a step towards reducing unnecessary mortality associated with delayed second-line ART switch, defining failure of first-line efavirenz-based regimens as a single viral load more than 1000 copies/ml should be considered.

Project description:The World Health Organization guidelines recommend lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) as a second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected adults in middle-income and low-income countries as a protease inhibitor boost based on clinical trials; however, the real-world safety and efficacy remain unknown. Therefore, we conducted a large-scale, multicenter retrospective cohort study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of LPV/r-based ART among HIV-infected adults in China in whom first-line therapy failed. The data were obtained from a national database covering 17 clinics in China for six years of follow-up from 2009 to 2016. Failure of first-line treatment was determined according to a viral load at least 400 copies/ml at week 48, non-completers at week 48 for any reason, and those who switched ART before week 48 for any reason such as side effects. Treatment effectiveness was assessed by the rate of CD4+T cell recovery, defined as >500 cells/mm3, and the proportion of patients achieving viral suppression, defined as <400 or <50 copies/ml according to the methods used during treatment. Safety was assessed by rates of LPV/r-related adverse events (AEs), including lipid disorder, severe abnormal liver function, myelosuppression, and renal function. Between 2009 and 2016, 1196 participants (median, 36 years old; IQR, 30-43 years) were ultimately enrolled. All patients had been on LPV/r-based second-line ART treatment for more than one year after failure of any first-line ART regimen. Overall CD4+T cell counts increased from 138 cells/mm3 to 475 cells/mm3 and 37.2% of all participants reached CD4 recovery. Viral suppression rates dramatically increased at the end of the first year (<400 copies/ml, 88.8%; <50 copies/ml, 76.7%) and gradually increased during follow-up (<400 copies/ml, 95.8%; <50 copies/ml, 94.4%). The most frequently reported AEs were LPV/r-induced lipid disorders with no obvious increase on LDL-C at follow-up visits. This is the first real-world LPV/r-based second-line treatment study to cover such a large population in China. These results provide strong clinical evidence that LPV/r-based second-line ART is effective in increasing CD4+T cell counts and viral suppression rates with tolerable side effects in HIV-infected adults in China in whom first-line treatment had failed.

Project description:There are limited data of immunologic and virologic failure in Asian HIV-infected children using non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We examined the incidence rate of immunologic failure (IF) and virologic failure (VF) and the accuracy of using IF to predict VF in Thai HIV-infected children using first-line NNRTI-based HAART.Antiretroviral (ART)-naïve HIV-infected children from 2 prospective cohorts treated with NNRTI-based HAART during 2001-2008 were included. CD4 counts were performed every 12 weeks and plasma HIV-RNA measured every 24 weeks. Immune recovery was defined as CD4%?25%. IF was defined as persistent decline of ?5% in CD4% in children with CD4%<15% at baseline or decrease in CD4 count ?30% from baseline. VF was defined as HIV-RNA>1,000 copies/ml after at least 24 weeks of HAART. Clinical and laboratory parameter changes were assessed using a paired t-test, and a time to event approach was used to assess predictors of VF. Sensitivity and specificity of IF were calculated against VF.107 ART-naive HIV-infected children were included, 52% female, % CDC clinical classification N:A:B:C 4:44:30:22%. Baseline data were median (IQR) age 6.2 (4.2-8.9) years, CD4% 7 (3-15), HIV-RNA 5.0 (4.9-5.5) log10copies/ml. Nevirapine (NVP) and efavirenz (EFV)-based HAART were started in 70% and 30%, respectively.At 96 weeks, none had progressed to a CDC clinical classification of AIDS and one had died from pneumonia. Overall, significant improvement of weight for age z-score (p = 0.014), height for age z-score, hemoglobin, and CD4 were seen (all p < 0.001). The median (IQR) CD4% at 96 weeks was 25 (18-30)%. Eighty-nine percent of children had immune recovery (CD4%?25%) and 75% of children had HIV-RNA <1.7log10copies/ml.Thirty five (32.7%) children experienced VF within 96 weeks. Of these, 24 (68.6%) and 31 (88.6%) children had VF in the first 24 and 48 weeks respectively.Only 1 (0.9%) child experienced IF within 96 weeks and the sensitivity (95%CI) of IF to VF was 4 (0.1-20.4)% and specificity was 100 (93.9-100)%.Immunologic failure, as defined here, had low sensitivity compared to VF and should not be recommended to detect treatment failure. Plasma HIV-RNA should be performed twice, at weeks 24 and 48, to detect early treatment failure.Clinicaltrials.gov identification number NCT00476606.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Identifying characteristics of HIV-infected adults likely to have poor treatment outcomes can be useful for targeting interventions efficiently. Research in economics and psychology suggests that individuals' intertemporal time preferences, which indicate the extent to which they trade-off immediate vs. future cost and benefits, can influence various health behaviors. While there is empirical support for the association between time preferences and various non-HIV health behaviors and outcomes, the extent to which time preferences predict outcomes of those receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) has not been examined previously. METHODS:HIV-infected adults initiating ART were enrolled at a health facility in Kenya. Participants' time preferences were measured at enrollment and used to classify them as having either a low or high discount rate for future benefits. At 48 weeks, we assessed mortality and ART adherence, as measured by Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMS). Logistic regression models adjusting for socio-economic characteristics and risk factors were used to determine the association between time preferences and mortality as well as MEMS adherence ?90%. RESULTS:Overall, 44% (96/220) of participants were classified as having high discount rates. Participants with high discount rates had significantly higher 48-week mortality than participants with low discount rates (9.3% vs. 3.1%; adjusted odds ratio 3.84; 95% CI 1.03, 14.50). MEMS adherence ?90% was similar for participants with high vs. low discount rates (42.3% vs. 49.6%, AOR 0.70; 95% CI 0.40, 1.25). CONCLUSION:High discount rates were associated with significantly higher risk of mortality among HIV-infected patients initiating ART. Greater use of time preference measures may improve identification of patients at risk of poor clinical outcomes. More research is needed to further identify mechanisms of action and also to build upon and test the generalizability of this finding.

Dataset Information

Positive Predictive Value of the WHO Clinical and Immunologic Criteria to Predict Viral Load Failure among Adults on First, or Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in Kenya.

Publications

Positive Predictive Value of the WHO Clinical and Immunologic Criteria to Predict Viral Load Failure among Adults on First, or Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in Kenya.

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