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Fine-Scale Mapping by Spatial Risk Distribution Modeling for Regional Malaria Endemicity and Its Implications under the Low-to-Moderate Transmission Setting in Western Cambodia.

ABSTRACT: The disease burden of malaria has decreased as malaria elimination efforts progress. The mapping approach that uses spatial risk distribution modeling needs some adjustment and reinvestigation in accordance with situational changes. Here we applied a mathematical modeling approach for standardized morbidity ratio (SMR) calculated by annual parasite incidence using routinely aggregated surveillance reports, environmental data such as remote sensing data, and non-environmental anthropogenic data to create fine-scale spatial risk distribution maps of western Cambodia. Furthermore, we incorporated a combination of containment status indicators into the model to demonstrate spatial heterogeneities of the relationship between containment status and risks. The explanatory model was fitted to estimate the SMR of each area (adjusted Pearson correlation coefficient R2 = 0.774; Akaike information criterion AIC = 149.423). A Bayesian modeling framework was applied to estimate the uncertainty of the model and cross-scale predictions. Fine-scale maps were created by the spatial interpolation of estimated SMRs at each village. Compared with geocoded case data, corresponding predicted values showed conformity [Spearman's rank correlation r = 0.662 in the inverse distance weighed interpolation and 0.645 in ordinal kriging (95% confidence intervals of 0.414-0.827 and 0.368-0.813, respectively), Welch's t-test; Not significant]. The proposed approach successfully explained regional malaria risks and fine-scale risk maps were created under low-to-moderate malaria transmission settings where reinvestigations of existing risk modeling approaches were needed. Moreover, different representations of simulated outcomes of containment status indicators for respective areas provided useful insights for tailored interventional planning, considering regional malaria endemicity.

SUBMITTER: Okami S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4944927 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Due to the associated and substantial efforts of many stakeholders involved in malaria containment, the disease burden of malaria has dramatically decreased in many malaria-endemic countries in recent years. Some decades after the past efforts of the global malaria eradication program, malaria elimination has again featured on the global health agenda. While risk distribution modeling and a mapping approach are effective tools to assist with the efficient allocation of limited health-care resources, these methods need some adjustment and reexamination in accordance with changes occurring in relation to malaria elimination. Limited available data, fine-scale data inaccessibility (for example, household or individual case data), and the lack of reliable data due to inefficiencies within the routine surveillance system, make it difficult to create reliable risk maps for decision-makers or health-care practitioners in the field. Furthermore, the risk of malaria may dynamically change due to various factors such as the progress of containment interventions and environmental changes. To address the complex and dynamic nature of situations in low-to-moderate malaria transmission settings, we built a spatiotemporal model of a standardized morbidity ratio (SMR) of malaria incidence, calculated through annual parasite incidence, using routinely reported surveillance data in combination with environmental indices such as remote sensing data, and the non-environmental regional containment status, to create fine-scale risk maps. A hierarchical Bayesian frame was employed to fit the transitioning malaria risk data onto the map. The model was set to estimate the SMRs of every study location at specific time intervals within its uncertainty range. Using the spatial interpolation of estimated SMRs at village level, we created fine-scale maps of two provinces in western Cambodia at specific time intervals. The maps presented different patterns of malaria risk distribution at specific time intervals. Moreover, the visualized weights estimated using the risk model, and the structure of the routine surveillance network, represent the transitional complexities emerging from ever-changing regional endemic situations.

Project description:BackgroundDespite progress in malaria control, malaria remains an important public health concern in Cambodia, mostly linked to forested areas. Large-scale vector control interventions in Cambodia are based on the free distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), targeting indoor- and late-biting malaria vectors only. The present study evaluated the vector density, early biting activity and malaria transmission of outdoor-biting malaria vectors in two forested regions in Cambodia.MethodsIn 2005 two entomological surveys were conducted in 12 villages and their related forest plots in the east and west of Cambodia. Mosquitoes were collected outdoors by human landing collections and subjected to enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect Plasmodium sporozoites after morphological identification. Blood samples were collected in the same villages for serological analyses. Collected data were analysed by the classification and regression tree (CART) method and linear regression analysis.ResultsA total of 11,826 anophelines were recorded landing in 787 man-night collections. The majority (82.9%) were the known primary and secondary vectors. Most of the variability in vector densities and early biting rates was explained by geographical factors, mainly at village level. Vector densities were similar between forest and village sites. Based on ELISA results, 29% out of 17 Plasmodium-positive bites occurred before sleeping time, and 65% in the forest plots. The entomological inoculation rates of survey 1 were important predictors of the respective seroconversion rates in survey 2, whereas the mosquito densities were not.DiscussionIn Cambodia, outdoor malaria transmission in villages and forest plots is important. In this context, deforestation might result in lower densities of the primary vectors, but also in higher densities of secondary vectors invading deforested areas. Moreover, higher accessibility of the forest could result in a higher man-vector contact. Therefore, additional vector control measures should be developed to target outdoor- and early-biting vectors.

Project description:BackgroundArtemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria has recently been identified on the Thailand-Cambodia border and more recently in parts of Thailand, Myanmar and Vietnam. There is concern that if this resistance were to spread, it would severely hamper malaria control and elimination efforts worldwide. Efforts are currently underway to intensify malaria control activities and ultimately eliminate malaria from Cambodia. To support these efforts, it is crucial to have a detailed picture of disease burden and its major determinants over time.MethodsAn analysis of spatial and temporal data on clinical malaria in Cambodia collected by the National Centre for Parasitology, Entomology and Malaria Control (CNM) and the Department of Planning and Health Information, Ministry of Health Cambodia from 2004 to 2013 is presented.ResultsThere has been a marked decrease of 81% in annual cases due to P. falciparum since 2009 coinciding with a rapid scale-up in village malaria workers (VMWs) and insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs). Concurrently, the number of cases with Plasmodium vivax has greatly increased. It is estimated that there were around 112,000 total cases in 2012, 2.8 times greater than the WHO estimate for that year, and 68,000 in 2013 (an annual parasite incidence (API) of 4.6/1000). With the scale-up of VMWs, numbers of patients presenting to government facilities did not fall and it appears likely that those who saw VMWs had previously accessed healthcare in the private sector. Malaria mortality has decreased, particularly in areas with VMWs. There has been a marked decrease in cases in parts of western Cambodia, especially in Pailin and Battambang Provinces. In the northeast, the fall in malaria burden has been more modest, this area having the highest API in 2013.ConclusionThe clinical burden of falciparum malaria in most areas of Cambodia has greatly decreased from 2009 to 2013, associated with roll-out of ITNs and VMWs. Numbers of cases with P. vivax have increased. Possible reasons for these trends are discussed and areas requiring further study are highlighted. Although malaria surveillance data are prone to collection bias and tend to underestimate disease burden, the finding of similar trends in two independent datasets in this study greatly increased the robustness of the findings.

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Fine-Scale Mapping by Spatial Risk Distribution Modeling for Regional Malaria Endemicity and Its Implications under the Low-to-Moderate Transmission Setting in Western Cambodia.

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