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Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics.

ABSTRACT: A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine whether the patterns of within-person responses on a 12-trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999). ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiraling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of processes at the level of the individual, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques.

SUBMITTER: Cripps E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4949490 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics.

Cripps Edward E Wood Robert E RE Beckmann Nadin N Lau John J Beckmann Jens F JF Cripps Sally Ann SA

Frontiers in psychology 20160719

A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine whether the patterns of within-person responses on a 12-trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999). ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ...[more]

PMID: 27486415

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Project description:AimsTo investigate cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between personality and smoking, and test whether socio-demographic factors modify these associations.DesignCross-sectional and longitudinal individual-participant meta-analysis.SettingNine cohort studies from Australia, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States.ParticipantsA total of 79 757 men and women (mean age = 50.8 years).MeasurementsPersonality traits of the five-factor model (extraversion, neuroticism, agreeableness, conscientiousness and openness to experience) were used as exposures. Outcomes were current smoking status (current smoker, ex-smoker and never smoker), smoking initiation, smoking relapse and smoking cessation. Associations between personality and smoking were modelled using logistic and multinomial logistic regression, and study-specific findings were combined using random-effect meta-analysis.FindingsCurrent smoking was associated with higher extraversion [odds ratio per 1 standard deviation increase in the score: 1.16; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08-1.24], higher neuroticism (1.19; 95% CI = 1.13-1.26) and lower conscientiousness (95% CI = 0.88; 0.83-0.94). Among non-smokers, smoking initiation during the follow-up period was predicted prospectively by higher extraversion (1.22; 95% CI = 1.04-1.43) and lower conscientiousness (0.80; 95% CI = 0.68-0.93), whereas higher neuroticism (1.16; 95% CI = 1.04-1.30) predicted smoking relapse among ex-smokers. Among smokers, smoking cessation was negatively associated with neuroticism (0.91; 95% CI = 0.87-0.96). Socio-demographic variables did not appear to modify the associations between personality and smoking.ConclusionsAdult smokers have higher extraversion, higher neuroticism and lower conscientiousness personality scores than non-smokers. Initiation into smoking is associated positively with higher extraversion and lower conscientiousness, while relapse to smoking among ex-smokers is associated with higher neuroticism.

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Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics.

Publications

Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics.

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