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Bayesian Meta-analysis of Multiple Continuous Treatments with Individual Participant-Level Data: An Application to Antipsychotic Drugs.

ABSTRACT: Modeling dose-response relationships of drugs is essential to understanding their safety effects on patients under realistic circumstances. While intention-to-treat analyses of clinical trials provide the effect of assignment to a particular drug and dose, they do not capture observed exposure after factoring in nonadherence and dropout. We develop a Bayesian method to flexibly model the dose-response relationships of binary outcomes with continuous treatment, permitting multiple evidence sources, treatment effect heterogeneity, and nonlinear dose-response curves. In an application, we examine the risk of excessive weight gain for patients with schizophrenia treated with the second-generation antipsychotics paliperidone, risperidone, or olanzapine in 14 clinical trials. We define exposure as total cumulative dose (daily dose × duration) and convert to units equivalent to 100 mg of olanzapine (OLZ doses). Averaging over the sample population of 5891 subjects, the median dose ranged from 0 (placebo randomized participants) to 6.4 OLZ doses (paliperidone randomized participants). We found paliperidone to be least likely to cause excessive weight gain across a range of doses. Compared with 0 OLZ doses, at 5.0 OLZ doses, olanzapine subjects had a 15.6% (95% credible interval: 6.7, 27.1) excess risk of weight gain; corresponding estimates for paliperidone and risperidone were 3.2% (1.5, 5.2) and 14.9% (0.0, 38.7), respectively. Moreover, compared with nonblack participants, black participants had a 6.8% (1.0, 12.4) greater risk of excessive weight gain at 10.0 OLZ doses of paliperidone. Nevertheless, our findings suggest that paliperidone is safer in terms of weight gain risk than risperidone or olanzapine for all participants at low to moderate cumulative OLZ doses.

SUBMITTER: Spertus J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6786940 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Bayesian Meta-analysis of Multiple Continuous Treatments with Individual Participant-Level Data: An Application to Antipsychotic Drugs.

Spertus Jacob J Horvitz-Lennon Marcela M Normand Sharon-Lise T ST

Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making 20190701 5

Modeling dose-response relationships of drugs is essential to understanding their safety effects on patients under realistic circumstances. While intention-to-treat analyses of clinical trials provide the effect of assignment to a particular drug and dose, they do not capture observed exposure after factoring in nonadherence and dropout. We develop a Bayesian method to flexibly model the dose-response relationships of binary outcomes with continuous treatment, permitting multiple evidence source ...[more]

PMID: 31375050

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Project description:ImportanceProton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) studies indicate that altered brain glutamatergic function may be associated with the pathophysiology of schizophrenia and the response to antipsychotic treatment. However, the association of altered glutamatergic function with clinical and demographic factors is unclear.ObjectiveTo assess the associations of age, symptom severity, level of functioning, and antipsychotic treatment with brain glutamatergic metabolites.Data sourcesThe MEDLINE database was searched to identify journal articles published between January 1, 1980, and June 3, 2020, using the following search terms: MRS or magnetic resonance spectroscopy and (1) schizophrenia or (2) psychosis or (3) UHR or (4) ARMS or (5) ultra-high risk or (6) clinical high risk or (7) genetic high risk or (8) prodrome* or (9) schizoaffective. Authors of 114 1H-MRS studies measuring glutamate (Glu) levels in patients with schizophrenia were contacted between January 2014 and June 2020 and asked to provide individual participant data.Study selectionIn total, 45 1H-MRS studies contributed data.Data extraction and synthesisAssociations of Glu, Glu plus glutamine (Glx), or total creatine plus phosphocreatine levels with age, antipsychotic medication dose, symptom severity, and functioning were assessed using linear mixed models, with study as a random factor.Main outcomes and measuresGlu, Glx, and Cr values in the medial frontal cortex (MFC) and medial temporal lobe (MTL).ResultsIn total, 42 studies were included, with data for 1251 patients with schizophrenia (mean [SD] age, 30.3 [10.4] years) and 1197 healthy volunteers (mean [SD] age, 27.5 [8.8] years). The MFC Glu (F1,1211.9 = 4.311, P = .04) and Glx (F1,1079.2 = 5.287, P = .02) levels were lower in patients than in healthy volunteers, and although creatine levels appeared lower in patients, the difference was not significant (F1,1395.9 = 3.622, P = .06). In both patients and volunteers, the MFC Glu level was negatively associated with age (Glu to Cr ratio, F1,1522.4 = 47.533, P < .001; cerebrospinal fluid-corrected Glu, F1,1216.7 = 5.610, P = .02), showing a 0.2-unit reduction per decade. In patients, antipsychotic dose (in chlorpromazine equivalents) was negatively associated with MFC Glu (estimate, 0.10 reduction per 100 mg; SE, 0.03) and MFC Glx (estimate, -0.11; SE, 0.04) levels. The MFC Glu to Cr ratio was positively associated with total symptom severity (estimate, 0.01 per 10 points; SE, 0.005) and positive symptom severity (estimate, 0.04; SE, 0.02) and was negatively associated with level of global functioning (estimate, 0.04; SE, 0.01). In the MTL, the Glx to Cr ratio was positively associated with total symptom severity (estimate, 0.06; SE, 0.03), negative symptoms (estimate, 0.2; SE, 0.07), and worse Clinical Global Impression score (estimate, 0.2 per point; SE, 0.06). The MFC creatine level increased with age (estimate, 0.2; SE, 0.05) but was not associated with either symptom severity or antipsychotic medication dose.Conclusions and relevanceFindings from this mega-analysis suggest that lower brain Glu levels in patients with schizophrenia may be associated with antipsychotic medication exposure rather than with greater age-related decline. Higher brain Glu levels may act as a biomarker of illness severity in schizophrenia.

Project description:ObjectiveTo illustrate the benefits of deploying individual headache forecasting models using continuous updating with Bayesian methods.BackgroundThe ability to reliably forecast headache attacks within an individual over time would enhance the study of attacks and allow preemptive treatment. However, deploying a suitable forecasting model in a clinical setting will likely involve several unique challenges related to heterogeneity in the predictor weights, limited or sparse data, and the need for a quick "warm-up." The use of Bayesian methods offers solutions to each of these specific challenges.MethodsThis was a post hoc analysis of a cohort study of individuals with episodic migraine attacks. Individuals completed daily diaries that allowed the estimation of several forecasting models, each using different types of ancillary information incorporated into formal prior probability distributions. An in silico analysis was conducted that mimicked the deployment of these models in a clinical-like setting where the parameters of the models were continuously updated and evaluated each day using root mean square error (RMSE).ResultsIndividuals (N = 95) were followed for 50 days and contributed 3359 days of nonmissing diary data. During the observation period, there were 1293/3359 (38.5%) days with a headache attack. Self-reported baseline headache frequency was associated with the corresponding predicted probability of future attacks, r = 0.15-0.39. At Day 25, the correlation between baseline information and predicted attack likelihood was r = 0.29 (95% CI: 0.09-0.47). Additionally, the use of prior probability distributions for model parameters improved the model fit, especially early in the deployment of the models (e.g., Day 5 RMSE 0.45 vs. 0.43). Models using informative prior probability distributions outperformed the models estimated without this information during the first 42 days of observation, although performance became more similar as more data were collected.ConclusionsThis analysis demonstrates the value of Bayesian methods in using additional available information to improve forecasting model performance, especially early in the deployment of a forecasting model. To obtain the full value of such models or to apply any model in clinical settings, a model with adequate discrimination and calibration will be needed.

Dataset Information

Bayesian Meta-analysis of Multiple Continuous Treatments with Individual Participant-Level Data: An Application to Antipsychotic Drugs.

Publications

Bayesian Meta-analysis of Multiple Continuous Treatments with Individual Participant-Level Data: An Application to Antipsychotic Drugs.

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