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Advantages of Bayesian monitoring methods in deciding whether and when to stop a clinical trial: an example of a neonatal cooling trial.

ABSTRACT: Decisions to stop randomized trials are often based on traditional P value thresholds and are often unconvincing to clinicians. To familiarize clinical investigators with the application and advantages of Bayesian monitoring methods, we illustrate the steps of Bayesian interim analysis using a recent major trial that was stopped based on frequentist analysis of safety and futility.We conducted Bayesian reanalysis of a factorial trial in newborn infants with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy that was designed to investigate whether outcomes would be improved by deeper (32 °C) or longer cooling (120 h), as compared with those achieved by standard whole body cooling (33.5 °C for 72 h). Using prior trial data, we developed neutral and enthusiastic prior probabilities for the effect on predischarge mortality, defined stopping guidelines for a clinically meaningful effect, and derived posterior probabilities for predischarge mortality.Bayesian relative risk estimates for predischarge mortality were closer to 1.0 than were frequentist estimates. Posterior probabilities suggested increased predischarge mortality (relative risk?>?1.0) for the three intervention groups; two crossed the Bayesian futility threshold.Bayesian analysis incorporating previous trial results and different pre-existing opinions can help interpret accruing data and facilitate informed stopping decisions that are likely to be meaningful and convincing to clinicians, meta-analysts, and guideline developers.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01192776 . Registered on 31 August 2010.

SUBMITTER: Pedroza C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4957277 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Advantages of Bayesian monitoring methods in deciding whether and when to stop a clinical trial: an example of a neonatal cooling trial.

Pedroza Claudia C Tyson Jon E JE Das Abhik A Laptook Abbot A Bell Edward F EF Shankaran Seetha S

Trials 20160722 1

<h4>Background</h4>Decisions to stop randomized trials are often based on traditional P value thresholds and are often unconvincing to clinicians. To familiarize clinical investigators with the application and advantages of Bayesian monitoring methods, we illustrate the steps of Bayesian interim analysis using a recent major trial that was stopped based on frequentist analysis of safety and futility.<h4>Methods</h4>We conducted Bayesian reanalysis of a factorial trial in newborn infants with hyp ...[more]

PMID: 27450203

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Project description:Background: Neonatal hypoxia-ischemia encephalopathy (HIE) is the leading cause of neonatal death and poor neurodevelopmental outcomes worldwide. Therapeutic hypothermia (TH), while beneficial, still leaves many HIE treated infants with lifelong disabilities. Furthermore, infants undergoing TH often require treatment for pain and agitation which may lead to further brain injury. For instance, morphine use in animal models has been shown to induce neuronal apoptosis. Dexmedetomidine is a potent α2-adrenergic receptor agonist that may be a better alternative to morphine for newborns with HIE treated with TH. Dexmedetomidine provides sedation, analgesia, and prevents shivering but does not suppress ventilation. Importantly, there is increasing evidence that dexmedetomidine has neuroprotective properties. Even though there are limited data on pharmacokinetics (PK), safety and efficacy of dexmedetomidine in infants with HIE, it has been increasingly administered in many centers. Objectives: To review the current approach to treatment of pain, sedation and shivering in infants with HIE undergoing TH, and to describe a new phase II safety and pharmacokinetics randomized controlled trial that proposes the use of dexmedetomidine vs. morphine in this population. Methods: This article presents an overview of the current management of pain and sedation in critically ill infants diagnosed with HIE and undergoing TH for 72 h. The article describes the design and methodology of a randomized, controlled, unmasked multicenter trial of dexmedetomidine vs. morphine administration enrolling 50 (25 per arm) neonates ≥36 weeks of gestation with moderate or severe HIE undergoing TH and that require pain/sedation treatment. Results and Conclusions: Dexmedetomidine may be a better alternative to morphine for the treatment of pain and sedation in newborns with HIE treated with TH. There is increasing evidence that dexmedetomidine has neuroprotective properties in several preclinical studies of injury models including ischemia-reperfusion, inflammation, and traumatic brain injury as well as adult clinical trials of brain trauma. The Dexmedetomidine Use in Infants undergoing Cooling due to Neonatal Encephalopathy (DICE) trial will evaluate whether administration of dexmedetomidine vs. morphine is safe, establish dexmedetomidine optimal dosing by collecting opportunistic PK data, and obtain preliminary neurodevelopmental data to inform a large Phase III efficacy trial with long term neurodevelopment impairment as the primary outcome.

Project description:Cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CL/P) and cleft palate only (CPO) are common congenital malformations. Numerous epidemiologic studies have shown an increased risk for orofacial clefts among children whose mothers smoked during early pregnancy; however, there is concern that the results of these studies may have been biased because of exposure misclassification. The purpose of this study is to use previous research on the reliability of self-reported cigarette smoking to produce corrected point estimates (and associated credible intervals) of the effect of maternal smoking on children's risk of clefts.We accounted for misclassification using 4 Bayesian models that made different assumptions about the sensitivity and specificity of self-reported maternal smoking data. We used results from previous studies to specify the prior distributions for sensitivity and specificity of reporting and used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms to calculate the posterior distribution of the effect of maternal smoking on children's risk for CL/P and CPO.After correcting for potential sources of misclassification in data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, we found an increased risk of CL/P among children born to mothers who smoked during early pregnancy (posterior odds ratio [OR] = 1.6, 95% credible interval = 1.1-2.2). The posterior effect of smoking on CPO provided less evidence of effect (posterior OR = 1.1, 95% credible interval = 0.7-1.7).Our results lend some credibility to the hypothesis that periconceptional maternal smoking increases the risk of a child being born with CL/P. The results concerning CPO provide no overall evidence of effect, although the estimates were relatively imprecise. We suggest that future research should emphasize validity studies, especially those of differential reporting, rather than replicating existing analyses of the relationship between maternal smoking and clefts. We discuss how our approach is also applicable to evaluating misclassification in a wide range of exposure-outcome scenarios.

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Advantages of Bayesian monitoring methods in deciding whether and when to stop a clinical trial: an example of a neonatal cooling trial.

Publications

Advantages of Bayesian monitoring methods in deciding whether and when to stop a clinical trial: an example of a neonatal cooling trial.

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