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Curative Surgical Resection of Adrenocortical Carcinoma: Determining Long-term Outcome Based on Conditional Disease-free Probability.

ABSTRACT: To evaluate conditional disease-free survival (CDFS) for patients who underwent curative intent surgery for adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC).ACC is a rare but aggressive tumor. Survival estimates are usually reported as survival from the time of surgery. CDFS estimates may be more clinically relevant by accounting for the changing likelihood of disease-free survival (DFS) according to time elapsed after surgery.CDFS was assessed using a multi-institutional cohort of patients. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate factors associated with DFS. Three-year CDFS (CDFS3) estimates at "x" year after surgery were calculated as follows: CDFS3?=?DFS(x+3)/DFS(x).One hundred ninety-two patients were included in the study cohort; median patient age was 52 years. On presentation, 36% of patients had a functional tumor and median size was 11.5?cm. Most patients underwent R0 resection (75%) and 9% had N1 disease. Overall 1-, 3-, and 5-year DFS was 59%, 34%, and 22%, respectively. Using CDFS estimates, the probability of remaining disease free for an additional 3 years given that the patient had survived without disease at 1, 3, and 5 years, was 43%, 53%, and 70%, respectively. Patients with less favorable prognosis at baseline demonstrated the greatest increase in CDFS3 over time (eg, capsular invasion: 28%-88%, ?60% vs no capsular invasion: 51%-87%, ?36%).DFS estimates for patients with ACC improved dramatically over time, in particular among patients with initial worse prognoses. CDFS estimates may provide more clinically relevant information about the changing likelihood of DFS over time.

SUBMITTER: Kim Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4974140 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Curative Surgical Resection of Adrenocortical Carcinoma: Determining Long-term Outcome Based on Conditional Disease-free Probability.

Kim Yuhree Y Margonis Georgios A GA Prescott Jason D JD Tran Thuy B TB Postlewait Lauren M LM Maithel Shishir K SK Wang Tracy S TS Glenn Jason A JA Hatzaras Ioannis I Shenoy Rivfka R Phay John E JE Keplinger Kara K Fields Ryan C RC Jin Linda X LX Weber Sharon M SM Salem Ahmed A Sicklick Jason K JK Gad Shady S Yopp Adam C AC Mansour John C JC Duh Quan-Yang QY Seiser Natalie N Solorzano Carmen C CC Kiernan Colleen M CM Votanopoulos Konstantinos I KI Levine Edward A EA Poultsides George A GA Pawlik Timothy M TM

Annals of surgery 20170101 1

<h4>Objective</h4>To evaluate conditional disease-free survival (CDFS) for patients who underwent curative intent surgery for adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC).<h4>Background</h4>ACC is a rare but aggressive tumor. Survival estimates are usually reported as survival from the time of surgery. CDFS estimates may be more clinically relevant by accounting for the changing likelihood of disease-free survival (DFS) according to time elapsed after surgery.<h4>Methods</h4>CDFS was assessed using a multi-in ...[more]

PMID: 28009746

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Project description:ImportanceAdrenocortical carcinoma (ACC) is a rare but aggressive endocrine tumor, and the prognostic factors associated with long-term outcomes after surgical resection remain poorly defined.ObjectivesTo define clinicopathological variables associated with recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) after curative surgical resection of ACC and to propose nomograms for individual risk prediction.Design, setting, and participantsNomograms to predict RFS and OS after surgical resection of ACC were proposed using a multi-institutional cohort of patients who underwent curative-intent surgery for ACC at 13 major institutions in the United States between March 17, 1994, and December 22, 2014. The dates of our study analysis were April 15, 2015, to May 12, 2015.Main outcomes and measuresThe discriminative ability and calibration of the nomograms to predict RFS and OS were tested using C statistics, calibration plots, and Kaplan-Meier curves.ResultsIn total, 148 patients who underwent surgery for ACC were included in the study. The median patient age was 53 years, and 65.5% (97 of 148) of the patients were female. One-third of the patients (35.1% [52 of 148]) had a functional tumor, and the median tumor size was 11.2 cm. Most patients (77.7% [115 of 148]) underwent R0 resection, and 8.8% (13 of 148) of the patients had N1 disease. Using backward stepwise selection of clinically important variables with the Akaike information criterion, the following variables were incorporated in the prediction of RFS: tumor size of at least 12 cm (hazard ratio [HR], 3.00; 95% CI, 1.63-5.70; P < .001), positive nodal status (HR, 4.78; 95% CI, 1.47-15.50; P = .01), stage III/IV (HR, 1.80; 95% CI, 0.95-3.39; P = .07), cortisol-secreting tumor (HR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.27-4.48; P = .01), and capsular invasion (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02-3.74; P = .04). Factors selected as predicting OS were tumor size of at least 12 cm (HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.00-3.17; P = .05), positive nodal status (HR, 5.89; 95% CI, 2.05-16.87; P = .001), and R1 margin (HR, 2.83; 95% CI, 1.51-5.30; P = .001). The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomograms revealed good predictive ability as indicated by the C statistics (0.74 for RFS and 0.70 for OS).Conclusions and relevanceIndependent predictors of survival and recurrence risk after curative-intent surgery for ACC were selected to create nomograms predicting RFS and OS. The nomograms were able to stratify patients into prognostic groups and performed well on internal validation.

Project description:Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) are the most commonly diagnosed mesenchymal tumors of the gastrointestinal tract. The risk of recurrence following surgical resection of GISTs is typically reported from the date of surgery. However, disease-free survival (DFS) over time is dynamic and changes based on disease-free time already accumulated following surgery.To assess the comparative performance of established GIST recurrence risk prognostic scoring systems and to characterize conditional DFS following surgical resection of GISTs.A retrospective cohort study of 502 patients who underwent surgery for a primary, nonmetastatic GIST between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2012, at 7 major academic cancer centers in the United States and Canada.Disease-free survival of the patients was classified according to 5 prognostic scoring systems, including the National Institutes of Health criteria, modified National Institutes of Health criteria, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center GIST nomogram, and American Joint Committee on Cancer gastric and nongastric categories. The concordance index (also known as the C statistic or the area under the receiver operating curve) of established GIST recurrence risk prognostic scoring systems. Conditional DFS estimates were calculated.Overall 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year DFS following resection of GISTs was 95%, 83%, and 74%, respectively. All the prognostic scoring systems had fair prognostic ability. For all tumor sites, the American Joint Committee on Cancer gastric category demonstrated the best discrimination (C?=?0.79). Using conditional DFS, the probability of remaining disease free for an additional 3 years given that a patient was disease free at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years was 82%, 89%, and 92%, respectively. Patients with the highest initial recurrence risk demonstrated the greatest increase in conditional survival as time elapsed.Conditional DFS improves over time following resection of GISTs. This is valuable information about long-term prognosis to communicate to patients who are disease free after a period following surgery.

Dataset Information

Curative Surgical Resection of Adrenocortical Carcinoma: Determining Long-term Outcome Based on Conditional Disease-free Probability.

Publications

Curative Surgical Resection of Adrenocortical Carcinoma: Determining Long-term Outcome Based on Conditional Disease-free Probability.

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