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Boosting medical diagnostics by pooling independent judgments.

ABSTRACT: Collective intelligence refers to the ability of groups to outperform individual decision makers when solving complex cognitive problems. Despite its potential to revolutionize decision making in a wide range of domains, including medical, economic, and political decision making, at present, little is known about the conditions underlying collective intelligence in real-world contexts. We here focus on two key areas of medical diagnostics, breast and skin cancer detection. Using a simulation study that draws on large real-world datasets, involving more than 140 doctors making more than 20,000 diagnoses, we investigate when combining the independent judgments of multiple doctors outperforms the best doctor in a group. We find that similarity in diagnostic accuracy is a key condition for collective intelligence: Aggregating the independent judgments of doctors outperforms the best doctor in a group whenever the diagnostic accuracy of doctors is relatively similar, but not when doctors' diagnostic accuracy differs too much. This intriguingly simple result is highly robust and holds across different group sizes, performance levels of the best doctor, and collective intelligence rules. The enabling role of similarity, in turn, is explained by its systematic effects on the number of correct and incorrect decisions of the best doctor that are overruled by the collective. By identifying a key factor underlying collective intelligence in two important real-world contexts, our findings pave the way for innovative and more effective approaches to complex real-world decision making, and to the scientific analyses of those approaches.

SUBMITTER: Kurvers RH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4978286 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Boosting medical diagnostics by pooling independent judgments.

Kurvers Ralf H J M RH Herzog Stefan M SM Hertwig Ralph R Krause Jens J Carney Patricia A PA Bogart Andy A Argenziano Giuseppe G Zalaudek Iris I Wolf Max M

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20160718 31

Collective intelligence refers to the ability of groups to outperform individual decision makers when solving complex cognitive problems. Despite its potential to revolutionize decision making in a wide range of domains, including medical, economic, and political decision making, at present, little is known about the conditions underlying collective intelligence in real-world contexts. We here focus on two key areas of medical diagnostics, breast and skin cancer detection. Using a simulation stu ...[more]

PMID: 27432950

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Project description:BackgroundRecently, machine learning (ML) has been transforming our daily lives by enabling intelligent voice assistants, personalized support for purchase decisions, and efficient credit card fraud detection. In addition to its everyday applications, ML holds the potential to improve medicine as well, especially with regard to diagnostics in clinics. In a world characterized by population growth, demographic change, and the global COVID-19 pandemic, ML systems offer the opportunity to make diagnostics more effective and efficient, leading to a high interest of clinics in such systems. However, despite the high potential of ML, only a few ML systems have been deployed in clinics yet, as their adoption process differs significantly from the integration of prior health information technologies given the specific characteristics of ML.ObjectiveThis study aims to explore the factors that influence the adoption process of ML systems for medical diagnostics in clinics to foster the adoption of these systems in clinics. Furthermore, this study provides insight into how these factors can be used to determine the ML maturity score of clinics, which can be applied by practitioners to measure the clinic status quo in the adoption process of ML systems.MethodsTo gain more insight into the adoption process of ML systems for medical diagnostics in clinics, we conducted a qualitative study by interviewing 22 selected medical experts from clinics and their suppliers with profound knowledge in the field of ML. We used a semistructured interview guideline, asked open-ended questions, and transcribed the interviews verbatim. To analyze the transcripts, we first used a content analysis approach based on the health care-specific framework of nonadoption, abandonment, scale-up, spread, and sustainability. Then, we drew on the results of the content analysis to create a maturity model for ML adoption in clinics according to an established development process.ResultsWith the help of the interviews, we were able to identify 13 ML-specific factors that influence the adoption process of ML systems in clinics. We categorized these factors according to 7 domains that form a holistic ML adoption framework for clinics. In addition, we created an applicable maturity model that could help practitioners assess their current state in the ML adoption process.ConclusionsMany clinics still face major problems in adopting ML systems for medical diagnostics; thus, they do not benefit from the potential of these systems. Therefore, both the ML adoption framework and the maturity model for ML systems in clinics can not only guide future research that seeks to explore the promises and challenges associated with ML systems in a medical setting but also be a practical reference point for clinicians.

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Boosting medical diagnostics by pooling independent judgments.

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Boosting medical diagnostics by pooling independent judgments.

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