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Quorums enable optimal pooling of independent judgements in biological systems.

ABSTRACT: Collective decision-making is ubiquitous, and majority-voting and the Condorcet Jury Theorem pervade thinking about collective decision-making. Thus, it is typically assumed that majority-voting is the best possible decision mechanism, and that scenarios exist where individually-weak decision-makers should not pool information. Condorcet and its applications implicitly assume that only one kind of error can be made, yet signal detection theory shows two kinds of errors exist, 'false positives' and 'false negatives'. We apply signal detection theory to collective decision-making to show that majority voting is frequently sub-optimal, and can be optimally replaced by quorum decision-making. While quorums have been proposed to resolve within-group conflicts, or manage speed-accuracy trade-offs, our analysis applies to groups with aligned interests undertaking single-shot decisions. Our results help explain the ubiquity of quorum decision-making in nature, relate the use of sub- and super-majority quorums to decision ecology, and may inform the design of artificial decision-making systems.

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This article has been through an editorial process in which the authors decide how to respond to the issues raised during peer review. The Reviewing Editor's assessment is that all the issues have been addressed (see decision letter).

SUBMITTER: Marshall JA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6374072 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Quorums enable optimal pooling of independent judgements in biological systems.

Marshall James Ar JA Kurvers Ralf Hjm RH Krause Jens J Wolf Max M

eLife 20190213

Collective decision-making is ubiquitous, and majority-voting and the Condorcet Jury Theorem pervade thinking about collective decision-making. Thus, it is typically assumed that majority-voting is the best possible decision mechanism, and that scenarios exist where individually-weak decision-makers should not pool information. Condorcet and its applications implicitly assume that only one kind of error can be made, yet signal detection theory shows two kinds of errors exist, 'false positives' a ...[more]

PMID: 30758288

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Project description:BackgroundPoor oral bioavailability is an important parameter accounting for the failure of the drug candidates. Approximately, 50% of developing drugs fail because of unfavorable oral bioavailability. In silico prediction of oral bioavailability (%F) based on physiochemical properties are highly needed. Although many computational models have been developed to predict oral bioavailability, their accuracy remains low with a significant number of false positives. In this study, we present an oral bioavailability model based on systems biological approach, using a machine learning algorithm coupled with an optimal discriminative set of physiochemical properties.ResultsThe models were developed based on computationally derived 247 physicochemical descriptors from 2279 molecules, among which 969, 605 and 705 molecules were corresponds to oral bioavailability, intestinal absorption (HIA) and caco-2 permeability data set, respectively. The partial least squares discriminate analysis showed 49 descriptors of HIA and 50 descriptors of caco-2 are the major contributing descriptors in classifying into groups. Of these descriptors, 47 descriptors were commonly associated to HIA and caco-2, which suggests to play a vital role in classifying oral bioavailability. To determine the best machine learning algorithm, 21 classifiers were compared using a bioavailability data set of 969 molecules with 47 descriptors. Each molecule in the data set was represented by a set of 47 physiochemical properties with the functional relevance labeled as (+bioavailability/-bioavailability) to indicate good-bioavailability/poor-bioavailability molecules. The best-performing algorithm was the logistic algorithm. The correlation based feature selection (CFS) algorithm was implemented, which confirms that these 47 descriptors are the fundamental descriptors for oral bioavailability prediction.ConclusionThe logistic algorithm with 47 selected descriptors correctly predicted the oral bioavailability, with a predictive accuracy of more than 71%. Overall, the method captures the fundamental molecular descriptors, that can be used as an entity to facilitate prediction of oral bioavailability.

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Quorums enable optimal pooling of independent judgements in biological systems.

Editorial note

Publications

Quorums enable optimal pooling of independent judgements in biological systems.

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