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Opportunities and challenges of Integral Projection Models for modelling host-parasite dynamics.

ABSTRACT: Epidemiological dynamics are shaped by and may in turn shape host demography. These feedbacks can result in hard to predict patterns of disease incidence. Mathematical models that integrate infection and demography are consequently a key tool for informing expectations for disease burden and identifying effective measures for control. A major challenge is capturing the details of infection within individuals and quantifying their downstream impacts to understand population-scale outcomes. For example, parasite loads and antibody titres may vary over the course of an infection and contribute to differences in transmission at the scale of the population. To date, to capture these subtleties, models have mostly relied on complex mechanistic frameworks, discrete categorization and/or agent-based approaches. Integral Projection Models (IPMs) allow variance in individual trajectories of quantitative traits and their population-level outcomes to be captured in ways that directly reflect statistical models of trait-fate relationships. Given increasing data availability, and advances in modelling, there is considerable potential for extending this framework to traits of relevance for infectious disease dynamics. Here, we provide an overview of host and parasite natural history contexts where IPMs could strengthen inference of population dynamics, with examples of host species ranging from mice to sheep to humans, and parasites ranging from viruses to worms. We discuss models of both parasite and host traits, provide two case studies and conclude by reviewing potential for both ecological and evolutionary research.

SUBMITTER: Metcalf CJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4991293 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Opportunities and challenges of Integral Projection Models for modelling host-parasite dynamics.

Metcalf C Jessica E CJ Graham Andrea L AL Martinez-Bakker Micaela M Childs Dylan Z DZ

The Journal of animal ecology 20151201 2

Epidemiological dynamics are shaped by and may in turn shape host demography. These feedbacks can result in hard to predict patterns of disease incidence. Mathematical models that integrate infection and demography are consequently a key tool for informing expectations for disease burden and identifying effective measures for control. A major challenge is capturing the details of infection within individuals and quantifying their downstream impacts to understand population-scale outcomes. For ex ...[more]

PMID: 26620440

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Project description:In México, at least 37 Agave species are extracted from wild populations for producing distilled spirits. This activity involves harvesting mature agaves just before producing their inflorescences, which cancels sexual reproduction of plants used. The increasing demand of agaves spirits in national and international markets is determining a strong pressure on wild populations, most of them lacking adequate management. In addition, the dynamics of agave populations may be affected by natural phenomena like oscillation of rainfall regimes, which affects the recruitment of agave seedlings, or the scarcity of pollinators that may affect seed production and general population dynamics. We studied the demography of wild populations of Agave inaequidens to analyze critical conditions for populations recovery, modelling the effects of rainfall trends on the demographic performance of this species, and exploring response of populations to hypothetical extraction regimes and reforestation efforts. Our study was performed in four well-conserved wild populations in Central Western Mexico, each population was sampled in a plot of about one hectare composed by 10 subplots 50 x 5 m (2500 m2). Populations were monitored yearly between 2011 and 2013, measuring plant size, reproductive individuals, and fecundity. Data were analyzed through integral projection models by using the IPMpack for R, to perform prospective analyses. We in addition constructed stochastic models to explore the possible influence of rainfall variation on species demography, using data for the drier and wetter years of the study period. Population growth varied from λ=1.003 to λ=0.899 among populations and years, and exceptionally λ=0.559 after a fire event. Low rainfall decreases λ values, indicating especial limitations to harvesting agaves during dry years whose frequency most probably will increase. In general, extraction rates from 10% to 30% of mature individuals are viable to maintain λ above 1, and these rates may be higher if new plants are introduced in populations. Depending on levels of extraction, our models suggest that it is necessary to carry out actions of reforestation, and in situ management according to the trends found in each site. This is one indispensable condition to maintain λ close to or greater than 1. Sustainable extraction of wild agaves is possible, some communities are already carrying out a repertoire of goods practices in this direction, but together with ecological criteria and good management techniques, strict regulations and social organization are needed to achieve it.

Dataset Information

Opportunities and challenges of Integral Projection Models for modelling host-parasite dynamics.

Publications

Opportunities and challenges of Integral Projection Models for modelling host-parasite dynamics.

Similar Datasets

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