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Spotting Epidemic Keystones by R0 Sensitivity Analysis: High-Risk Stations in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area.

ABSTRACT: How can we identify the epidemiologically high-risk communities in a metapopulation network? The network centrality measure, which quantifies the relative importance of each location, is commonly utilized for this purpose. As the disease invasion condition is given from the basic reproductive ratio R0, we have introduced a novel centrality measure based on the sensitivity analysis of this R0 and shown its capability of revealing the characteristics that has been overlooked by the conventional centrality measures. The epidemic dynamics over the commute network of the Tokyo metropolitan area is theoretically analyzed by using this centrality measure. We found that, the impact of countermeasures at the largest station is more than 1,000 times stronger compare to that at the second largest station, even though the population sizes are only around 1.5 times larger. Furthermore, the effect of countermeasures at every station is strongly dependent on the existence and the number of commuters to this largest station. It is well known that the hubs are the most influential nodes, however, our analysis shows that only the largest among the network plays an extraordinary role. Lastly, we also found that, the location that is important for the prevention of disease invasion does not necessarily match the location that is important for reducing the number of infected.

SUBMITTER: Yashima K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5015857 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Spotting Epidemic Keystones by R0 Sensitivity Analysis: High-Risk Stations in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area.

Yashima Kenta K Sasaki Akira A

PloS one 20160908 9

How can we identify the epidemiologically high-risk communities in a metapopulation network? The network centrality measure, which quantifies the relative importance of each location, is commonly utilized for this purpose. As the disease invasion condition is given from the basic reproductive ratio R0, we have introduced a novel centrality measure based on the sensitivity analysis of this R0 and shown its capability of revealing the characteristics that has been overlooked by the conventional ce ...[more]

PMID: 27607239

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Project description:The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been immense, while the epidemiology and pathophysiology remain unclear. Despite many casualties in many countries, there have been less than 1,000 deaths in Japan as of end of June, 2020. In this study, we analyzed the cases of COVID-19 patients admitted to our institution located in the Tokyo metropolitan area where the survival rate is higher than those in other cities in the world. Medical records of COVID-19 patients that were admitted to a single Japanese tertiary university hospital in the Tokyo metropolitan area between March 10th and June 2nd, 2020 were retrospectively reviewed. The identified COVID-19 cases were subdivided into two groups (severe and mild) depending on the need for mechanical ventilation. Those in the severe group required mechanical ventilation as opposed to those in the mild group. The data were analyzed using nonparametric tests expressed by median [interquartile range (IQR)]. A total of 45 COVID-19 patients were included, consisting of 22 severe cases (Group S) and 23 mild cases (Group M). Male sex (Group S, 95.5% vs. Group M, 56.5%, p<0.01), high body mass index (Group S, 24.89 [22.44-27.15] vs. Group M, 21.43 [19.05-23.75], p<0.01), and hyperlipidemia (Group S, 36.4% vs. Group M, 0%, p<0.01) were more seen in Group S. Five (22.7%) cases in Group S underwent extracorporeal membranous oxygenation (ECMO). On admission, lymphopenia, decreased albumin, and elevated fibrinogen, lactate dehydrogenase, transaminases, creatine kinase, C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin were observed in Group S. The median ICU and hospital stay were 13.5 [10.3-22.3] days and 23.0 [16.3-30.5] days, respectively, in Group S. As of June 28th, 2020, in Group S, 19 (86.4%) patients have survived, of which 17 (77.3%) were discharged, and 2 are still in treatments. Three died of multiple organ failure. All 23 patients in Group M have recovered. Male sex, high body mass index, and hyperlipidemia can be risk factors for severe COVID-19 pneumonia, and its overall short-term survival rate was between 77.3% and 86.4% in this study.

Project description:BackgroundDengue is one of the most important re-emerging viral diseases and the most common human arthropod-borne viral infection worldwide. Any of the four Dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1 to 4) can cause asymptomatic infections or clinical manifestations that range in severity from a mild, self-limited illness, to a severe disease characterized by a shock syndrome that can lead to death. Paraguay suffers periodic epidemic outbreaks of dengue since 1988 when the DENV-1 was introduced in the country. Epidemics caused by all four serotypes have been reported and the country. Although dengue is endemic in Paraguay, few studies have described the molecular epidemiology of DENV in the country, which is important to understand the local and global spread, as well as the evolution of this pathogen.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional study of a convenience sample. Suspected dengue patients of any age were recruited from the Emergency Laboratory of the Central Hospital of the Institute of Social Welfare, Asuncion, Paraguay, from February to June of 2011. A DENV antigen test was used to confirm the infection. The protein E gene sequences of isolated viruses were sequenced for phylogenetic analysis.ResultsDengue was confirmed in 55.1% of the participants (n = 98/178). The most frequent clinical findings were fever, headache, and myalgia. Identity analyses of the protein E gene sequence of 56 viruses isolated showed the circulation of DENV-1 (n = 45) and DENV-2 (n = 11) in the Asuncion metropolitan area in 2011. Molecular epidemiology analyses suggest that DENV-1 was introduced into Paraguay from Argentina, while the DENV-2 from Brazil, replacing previous virus lineages.ConclusionsWe have analyzed the molecular epidemiology of DENV-1 and DENV-2 isolated in Paraguay in 2011. We found strong evidence that DENV-1 was introduced into Paraguay from Argentina, while the DENV-2 from Brazil, replacing previous virus lineages. Molecular epidemiology studies are of great interest to analyze the dynamic of DENV spread, which are useful for early implementation of containment measures to reduce the risk of explosive epidemics caused by this virus.

Dataset Information

Spotting Epidemic Keystones by R0 Sensitivity Analysis: High-Risk Stations in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area.

Publications

Spotting Epidemic Keystones by R0 Sensitivity Analysis: High-Risk Stations in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area.

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