Dataset Information

Epidemic process over the commute network in a metropolitan area.

ABSTRACT: An understanding of epidemiological dynamics is important for prevention and control of epidemic outbreaks. However, previous studies tend to focus only on specific areas, indicating that application to another area or intervention strategy requires a similar time-consuming simulation. Here, we study the epidemic dynamics of the disease-spread over a commute network, using the Tokyo metropolitan area as an example, in an attempt to elucidate the general properties of epidemic spread over a commute network that could be used for a prediction in any metropolitan area. The model is formulated on the basis of a metapopulation network in which local populations are interconnected by actual commuter flows in the Tokyo metropolitan area and the spread of infection is simulated by an individual-based model. We find that the probability of a global epidemic as well as the final epidemic sizes in both global and local populations, the timing of the epidemic peak, and the time at which the epidemic reaches a local population are mainly determined by the joint distribution of the local population sizes connected by the commuter flows, but are insensitive to geographical or topological structure of the network. Moreover, there is a strong relation between the population size and the time that the epidemic reaches this local population and we are able to determine the reason for this relation as well as its dependence on the commute network structure and epidemic parameters. This study shows that the model based on the connection between the population size classes is sufficient to predict both global and local epidemic dynamics in metropolitan area. Moreover, the clear relation of the time taken by the epidemic to reach each local population can be used as a novel measure for intervention; this enables efficient intervention strategies in each local population prior to the actual arrival.

SUBMITTER: Yashima K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4048205 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Epidemic process over the commute network in a metropolitan area.

Yashima Kenta K Sasaki Akira A

PloS one 20140606 6

An understanding of epidemiological dynamics is important for prevention and control of epidemic outbreaks. However, previous studies tend to focus only on specific areas, indicating that application to another area or intervention strategy requires a similar time-consuming simulation. Here, we study the epidemic dynamics of the disease-spread over a commute network, using the Tokyo metropolitan area as an example, in an attempt to elucidate the general properties of epidemic spread over a commu ...[more]

PMID: 24905831

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Project description:BackgroundDengue is one of the most important re-emerging viral diseases and the most common human arthropod-borne viral infection worldwide. Any of the four Dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1 to 4) can cause asymptomatic infections or clinical manifestations that range in severity from a mild, self-limited illness, to a severe disease characterized by a shock syndrome that can lead to death. Paraguay suffers periodic epidemic outbreaks of dengue since 1988 when the DENV-1 was introduced in the country. Epidemics caused by all four serotypes have been reported and the country. Although dengue is endemic in Paraguay, few studies have described the molecular epidemiology of DENV in the country, which is important to understand the local and global spread, as well as the evolution of this pathogen.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional study of a convenience sample. Suspected dengue patients of any age were recruited from the Emergency Laboratory of the Central Hospital of the Institute of Social Welfare, Asuncion, Paraguay, from February to June of 2011. A DENV antigen test was used to confirm the infection. The protein E gene sequences of isolated viruses were sequenced for phylogenetic analysis.ResultsDengue was confirmed in 55.1% of the participants (n = 98/178). The most frequent clinical findings were fever, headache, and myalgia. Identity analyses of the protein E gene sequence of 56 viruses isolated showed the circulation of DENV-1 (n = 45) and DENV-2 (n = 11) in the Asuncion metropolitan area in 2011. Molecular epidemiology analyses suggest that DENV-1 was introduced into Paraguay from Argentina, while the DENV-2 from Brazil, replacing previous virus lineages.ConclusionsWe have analyzed the molecular epidemiology of DENV-1 and DENV-2 isolated in Paraguay in 2011. We found strong evidence that DENV-1 was introduced into Paraguay from Argentina, while the DENV-2 from Brazil, replacing previous virus lineages. Molecular epidemiology studies are of great interest to analyze the dynamic of DENV spread, which are useful for early implementation of containment measures to reduce the risk of explosive epidemics caused by this virus.

Project description:Background and aimsLiver cancer is one of the most dominant malignant tumors in the world. The trends of liver cancer mortality over the past six decades have been tracked in the epidemic region of Qidong, China. Using epidemiological tools, we explore the dynamic changes in age-standardized rates to characterize important aspects of liver cancer etiology and prevention.MethodsMortality data of liver cancer in Qidong from 1958 to 1971 (death retrospective survey) and from 1972 to 2017 (cancer registration) were tabulated for the crude rate (CR), and age-standardized rate and age-birth cohorts. The average annual percentage change was calculated by the Joinpoint Regression Program.ResultsThe natural death rate during 1958-2017 decreased from 9‰ to 5.4‰ and then increased to 8‰ as the population aged; cancer mortality rates rose continuously from 57/105 to 240/105. Liver cancer mortality increased from 20/105 to 80/105, and then dropped to less than 52/105 in 2017. Liver cancer deaths in 1972-2017 accounted for 30.53% of all cancers, with a CR of 60.48/105, age-standardized rate China (ASRC) of 34.78/105, and ASRW (world) of 45.71/105. Other key features were the CR for males and females of 91.86/105 and 29.92/105, respectively, with a sex ratio of 3.07:1. Period analysis showed that the ASRs for mortality of the age groups under 54 years old had a significant decreasing trend. Importantly, birth cohort analysis showed that the mortality rate of liver cancer in 40-44, 35-39, 30-34, 25-29, 20-24, 15-19 years cohort decreased considerably, but the rates in 70-74, and 75+ increased.ConclusionsThe crude mortality rate of liver cancer in Qidong has experienced trends from lower to higher levels, and from continued increase at a high plateau to most recently a gradual decline, and a change greatest in younger people. Many years of comprehensive prevention and intervention measures have influenced the decline of the liver cancer epidemic in this area. The reduction of intake levels of aflatoxin might be one of the most significant factors as evidenced by the dramatic decline of exposure biomarkers in this population during the past three decades.

Dataset Information

Epidemic process over the commute network in a metropolitan area.

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Epidemic process over the commute network in a metropolitan area.

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