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Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula.

ABSTRACT: We quantify outbreak risk after importations of Middle East respiratory syndrome outside the Arabian Peninsula. Data from 31 importation events show strong statistical support for lower transmissibility after early transmission generations. Our model projects the risk of ?10, 100, and 500 transmissions as 11%, 2%, and 0.02%, and ?1, 2, 3, and 4 generations as 23%, 14%, 0.9%, and 0.05%, respectively. Our results suggest tempered risk of large, long-lasting outbreaks with appropriate control measures.

SUBMITTER: Toth DJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5047297 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula.

Toth Damon J A DJ Tanner Windy D WD Khader Karim K Gundlapalli Adi V AV

Epidemics 20160507

We quantify outbreak risk after importations of Middle East respiratory syndrome outside the Arabian Peninsula. Data from 31 importation events show strong statistical support for lower transmissibility after early transmission generations. Our model projects the risk of ≥10, 100, and 500 transmissions as 11%, 2%, and 0.02%, and ≥1, 2, 3, and 4 generations as 23%, 14%, 0.9%, and 0.05%, respectively. Our results suggest tempered risk of large, long-lasting outbreaks with appropriate control measu ...[more]

PMID: 27663788

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