Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
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SUBMITTER: GBD 2015 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators
Project description:The Global Burden of Disease 2015 study aims to use all available data of sufficient quality to generate reliable and valid prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) estimates of oral conditions for the period of 1990 to 2015. Since death as a direct result of oral diseases is rare, DALY estimates were based on years lived with disability, which are estimated only on those persons with unmet need for dental care. We used our data to assess progress toward the Federation Dental International, World Health Organization, and International Association for Dental Research's oral health goals of reducing the level of oral diseases and minimizing their impact by 2020. Oral health has not improved in the last 25 y, and oral conditions remained a major public health challenge all over the world in 2015. Due to demographic changes, including population growth and aging, the cumulative burden of oral conditions dramatically increased between 1990 and 2015. The number of people with untreated oral conditions rose from 2.5 billion in 1990 to 3.5 billion in 2015, with a 64% increase in DALYs due to oral conditions throughout the world. Clearly, oral diseases are highly prevalent in the globe, posing a very serious public health challenge to policy makers. Greater efforts and potentially different approaches are needed if the oral health goal of reducing the level of oral diseases and minimizing their impact is to be achieved by 2020. Despite some challenges with current measurement methodologies for oral diseases, measurable specific oral health goals should be developed to advance global public health.
Project description:ImportanceCancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning.ObjectiveTo estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015.Evidence reviewCancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results.FindingsIn 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant.Conclusion and relevanceAs part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.
Project description:The objective of this study is to provide comprehensive and up-to-date estimates on the disease burden of BPH in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019. Data about incidence, year lived with disability (YLD), and their age-standardized rates (ASRs) for 21 regions, 5 Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles, 204 countries and territories, and 12 age categories from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) of the ASRs and the associations between SDI and the ASRs were estimated. The effects of population growth, population aging, and age-specific rate on the changes in the absolute numbers of incidence and YLD were quantified. Globally, there were 11.26 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 8.79, 14.46) new cases and 1.86 million (95%UI: 1.13, 2.78) YLD due to BPH in 2019. The global ASRs of incidence (EAPC: -0.031, 95% CI: -0.050, -0.012) and YLD (EAPC: -0.058, 95% CI: -0.084, -0.031) decreased slightly from 1990 to 2019, whereas the absolute numbers increased dramatically from 1990 (incidence by 105.7% and YLD by 110.6%), mainly driven by the population growth (53.5% for incidence and 54.4% for YLD) and population aging (55.7% for incidence and 63.2% for YLD). The burden of BPH varied markedly among different regions, socioeconomic status, and countries. As the population is growing and aging, great efforts are required to develop effective prevention, treatment and management strategies to meet the high and increasing burden of BPH worldwide.
Project description:BackgroundUp-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013.MethodsEstimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries.FindingsDisease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013.InterpretationAgeing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Project description:BackgroundFacial fractures are common injuries causing cosmetic, functional, and psychological damage. The purpose of this study was to assess the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of facial fractures from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD).MethodsDetailed data for the disease burden of facial fractures were obtained from online available public data (Global Health Data Exchange) derived from the GBD study. The incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of facial fractures from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed by country, region, age, gender, sociodemographic index (SDI), and cause. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized YLDs rate (ASYR), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the disease burden and quantify the trends over time. The main causes of facial fractures in different years and ages were assessed.ResultsGlobally, there were 8.9 million incident cases, 1.5 million cases prevalent cases, and 98.1 thousand years YLDs in 2019. Compared with 1990, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, and YLDs increased, while ASIR (EAPC, - 0.47; 95% uncertainty interval [UI], - 0.57 to - 0.37), ASPR (EAPC, - 0.39; 95% UI, - 0.46 to - 0.31), ASYR (EAPC, - 0.39; 95% UI, - 0.47 to - 0.32) showed a downward trend. The high SDI region held the highest ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR both in 1990 and 2019, such as New Zealand, Slovenia, and Australia. The burden was higher in men than in women from 1990 to 2019, while the ASRs in women exceeded that of men in the elderly. The ASIR peaked in the young adult group, however, the ASPR and ASYR increased with age. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of facial fractures.ConclusionsFacial fractures continue to cause a heavy burden on public health worldwide. More targeted strategies need to be established to control the burden of facial fractures.
Project description:(1) Background: Understanding occurrence can help formulate effective preventative laws and regulations. However, the most recent global burden and road injuries (RIs) trends have not been reported. This study reports the burden of RIs globally from 1990 to 2019. (2) Methods: RIs data were downloaded from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. Incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) described the trend and burden of RIs. We calculated age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) for the above indexes to evaluate the temporal trend of RIs. We evaluated the social-demographic index (SDI) with epidemiological RI parameters and reported proportions of age-standardized rates due to RI. (3) Results: In 2019, the global incidence of RIs reached 103.2 million. The EAPC of RI incidence increased, whereas deaths and DALYs decreased. Age-standardized incident rate (ASIR) was highest in low-middle SDI regions, age-standardized death rate (ASDR) was high in middle SDI regions, and age-standardized DALYs increased in low SDI regions. The highest accident rates were found in those aged 20–24 years old. Cyclist injuries were the leading RIs (34%), though pedestrian and motor vehicle accidents were the leading cause of death (37.4%, 37.6%) and DALYs (35.7%, 32.3%), respectively. (4) Conclusions: Over the past 30 years, RIs incidence increased annually, though death and DALY rates decreased. RIs places a considerable burden on public health in low SDI countries. Data should be used to develop and implement effective measures to reduce the burden of RIs.