Dataset Information

Simulating the Epidemiological and Economic Impact of Paratuberculosis Control Actions in Dairy Cattle.

ABSTRACT: We describe a new mechanistic bioeconomic model for simulating the spread of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) within a dairy cattle herd. The model includes age-dependent susceptibility for infection; age-dependent sensitivity for detection; environmental MAP build up in five separate areas of the farm; in utero infection; infection via colostrum and waste milk, and it allows for realistic culling (i.e., due to other diseases) by including a ranking system. We calibrated the model using a unique dataset from Denmark, including 102 random farms with no control actions against spread of MAP. Likewise, four control actions recommended in the Danish MAP control program were implemented in the model based on reported management strategies in Danish dairy herds in a MAP control scheme. We tested the model parameterization in a sensitivity analysis. We show that a test-and-cull strategy is on average the most cost-effective solution to decrease the prevalence and increase the total net revenue on a farm with low hygiene, but not more profitable than no control strategy on a farm with average hygiene. Although it is possible to eradicate MAP from the farm by implementing all four control actions from the Danish MAP control program, it was not economically attractive since the expenses for the control actions outweigh the benefits. Furthermore, the three most popular control actions against the spread of MAP on the farm were found to be costly and inefficient in lowering the prevalence when used independently.

SUBMITTER: Kirkeby C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5056316 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Simulating the Epidemiological and Economic Impact of Paratuberculosis Control Actions in Dairy Cattle.

Kirkeby Carsten C Græsbøll Kaare K Nielsen Søren Saxmose SS Christiansen Lasse E LE Toft Nils N Rattenborg Erik E Halasa Tariq T

Frontiers in veterinary science 20161010

We describe a new mechanistic bioeconomic model for simulating the spread of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) within a dairy cattle herd. The model includes age-dependent susceptibility for infection; age-dependent sensitivity for detection; environmental MAP build up in five separate areas of the farm; in utero infection; infection via colostrum and waste milk, and it allows for realistic culling (i.e., due to other diseases) by including a ranking s ...[more]

PMID: 27777933

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Project description:BackgroundA common approach to the application of epidemiological models is to determine a single (point estimate) parameterisation using the information available in the literature. However, in many cases there is considerable uncertainty about parameter values, reflecting both the incomplete nature of current knowledge and natural variation, for example between farms. Furthermore model outcomes may be highly sensitive to different parameter values. Paratuberculosis is an infection for which many of the key parameter values are poorly understood and highly variable, and for such infections there is a need to develop and apply statistical techniques which make maximal use of available data.ResultsA technique based on Latin hypercube sampling combined with a novel reweighting method was developed which enables parameter uncertainty and variability to be incorporated into a model-based framework for estimation of prevalence. The method was evaluated by applying it to a simulation of paratuberculosis in dairy herds which combines a continuous time stochastic algorithm with model features such as within herd variability in disease development and shedding, which have not been previously explored in paratuberculosis models. Generated sample parameter combinations were assigned a weight, determined by quantifying the model's resultant ability to reproduce prevalence data. Once these weights are generated the model can be used to evaluate other scenarios such as control options. To illustrate the utility of this approach these reweighted model outputs were used to compare standard test and cull control strategies both individually and in combination with simple husbandry practices that aim to reduce infection rates.ConclusionsThe technique developed has been shown to be applicable to a complex model incorporating realistic control options. For models where parameters are not well known or subject to significant variability, the reweighting scheme allowed estimated distributions of parameter values to be combined with additional sources of information, such as that available from prevalence distributions, resulting in outputs which implicitly handle variation and uncertainty. This methodology allows for more robust predictions from modelling approaches by allowing for parameter uncertainty and combining different sources of information, and is thus expected to be useful in application to a large number of disease systems.

Dataset Information

Simulating the Epidemiological and Economic Impact of Paratuberculosis Control Actions in Dairy Cattle.

Publications

Simulating the Epidemiological and Economic Impact of Paratuberculosis Control Actions in Dairy Cattle.

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