Dataset Information

PREDICTIVE MODELING OF CHOLERA OUTBREAKS IN BANGLADESH.

ABSTRACT: Despite seasonal cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh, little is known about the relationship between environmental conditions and cholera cases. We seek to develop a predictive model for cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh based on environmental predictors. To do this, we estimate the contribution of environmental variables, such as water depth and water temperature, to cholera outbreaks in the context of a disease transmission model. We implement a method which simultaneously accounts for disease dynamics and environmental variables in a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model. The entire system is treated as a continuous-time hidden Markov model, where the hidden Markov states are the numbers of people who are susceptible, infected, or recovered at each time point, and the observed states are the numbers of cholera cases reported. We use a Bayesian framework to fit this hidden SIRS model, implementing particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to sample from the posterior distribution of the environmental and transmission parameters given the observed data. We test this method using both simulation and data from Mathbaria, Bangladesh. Parameter estimates are used to make short-term predictions that capture the formation and decline of epidemic peaks. We demonstrate that our model can successfully predict an increase in the number of infected individuals in the population weeks before the observed number of cholera cases increases, which could allow for early notification of an epidemic and timely allocation of resources.

SUBMITTER: Koepke AA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5061460 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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PREDICTIVE MODELING OF CHOLERA OUTBREAKS IN BANGLADESH.

Koepke Amanda A AA Longini Ira M IM Halloran M Elizabeth ME Wakefield Jon J Minin Vladimir N VN

The annals of applied statistics 20160601 2

Despite seasonal cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh, little is known about the relationship between environmental conditions and cholera cases. We seek to develop a predictive model for cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh based on environmental predictors. To do this, we estimate the contribution of environmental variables, such as water depth and water temperature, to cholera outbreaks in the context of a disease transmission model. We implement a method which simultaneously accounts for disease dynam ...[more]

PMID: 27746850

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Project description:The temporal switching of serotypes from serotype Ogawa to Inaba and back to Ogawa was identified in Vibrio cholerae O1, which was responsible for seasonal outbreaks of cholera in Dhaka during the period 2015 to 2018. In order to delineate the factors responsible for this serotype transition, we performed whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of V. cholerae O1 multidrug-resistant strains belonging to both the serotypes that were isolated during this interval where the emergence and subsequent reduction of the Inaba serotype occurred. The whole-genome-based phylogenetic analysis revealed clonal expansion of the Inaba isolates mainly responsible for the peaks of infection during 2016 to 2017 and that they might have evolved from the prevailing Ogawa strains in 2015 which coclustered with them. Furthermore, the wbeT gene in these Inaba serotype isolates was inactivated due to insertion of a transposable element at the same position signifying the clonal expansion. Also, V. cholerae isolates in the Inaba serotype dominant clade mainly contained classical ctxB allele and revealed differences in the genetic composition of Vibrioseventh pandemic island II (VSP-II) and the SXT integrative and conjugative element (SXT-ICE) compared to those of Ogawa serotype strains which remerged in 2018. The variable presence of phage-inducible chromosomal island-like element 1 (PLE1) was also noted in the isolates of the Inaba serotype dominant clade. The detailed genomic characterization of the sequenced isolates has shed light on the forces which could be responsible for the periodic changes in serotypes of V. cholerae and has also highlighted the need to analyze the mobilome in greater detail to obtain insights into the mechanisms behind serotype switching.IMPORTANCE The switching of serotype from Ogawa to Inaba and back to Ogawa has been observed temporally in Vibrio cholerae O1, which is responsible for endemic cholera in Bangladesh. The serospecificity is key for effective intervention and for preventing cholera, a deadly disease that continues to cause significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. In the present study, WGS of V. cholerae allowed us to better understand the factors associated with the serotype switching events observed during 2015 to 2018. Genomic data analysis of strains isolated during this interval highlighted variations in the genes ctxB, tcpA, and rtxA and also identified significant differences in the genetic content of the mobilome, which included key elements such as SXT ICE, VSP-II, and PLE. Our results indicate that selective forces such as antibiotic resistance and phage resistance might contribute to the clonal expansion and predominance of a particular V. cholerae serotype responsible for an outbreak.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Cholera prevention and control interventions targeted to neighbors of cholera cases (case-area targeted interventions [CATIs]), including improved water, sanitation, and hygiene, oral cholera vaccine (OCV), and prophylactic antibiotics, may be able to efficiently avert cholera cases and deaths while saving scarce resources during epidemics. Efforts to quickly target interventions to neighbors of cases have been made in recent outbreaks, but little empirical evidence related to the effectiveness, efficiency, or ideal design of this approach exists. Here, we aim to provide practical guidance on how CATIs might be used by exploring key determinants of intervention impact, including the mix of interventions, "ring" size, and timing, in simulated cholera epidemics fit to data from an urban cholera epidemic in Africa. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We developed a micro-simulation model and calibrated it to both the epidemic curve and the small-scale spatiotemporal clustering pattern of case households from a large 2011 cholera outbreak in N'Djamena, Chad (4,352 reported cases over 232 days), and explored the potential impact of CATIs in simulated epidemics. CATIs were implemented with realistic logistical delays after cases presented for care using different combinations of prophylactic antibiotics, OCV, and/or point-of-use water treatment (POUWT) starting at different points during the epidemics and targeting rings of various radii around incident case households. Our findings suggest that CATIs shorten the duration of epidemics and are more resource-efficient than mass campaigns. OCV was predicted to be the most effective single intervention, followed by POUWT and antibiotics. CATIs with OCV started early in an epidemic focusing on a 100-m radius around case households were estimated to shorten epidemics by 68% (IQR 62% to 72%), with an 81% (IQR 69% to 87%) reduction in cases compared to uncontrolled epidemics. These same targeted interventions with OCV led to a 44-fold (IQR 27 to 78) reduction in the number of people needed to target to avert a single case of cholera, compared to mass campaigns in high-cholera-risk neighborhoods. The optimal radius to target around incident case households differed by intervention type, with antibiotics having an optimal radius of 30 m to 45 m compared to 70 m to 100 m for OCV and POUWT. Adding POUWT or antibiotics to OCV provided only marginal impact and efficiency improvements. Starting CATIs early in an epidemic with OCV and POUWT targeting those within 100 m of an incident case household reduced epidemic durations by 70% (IQR 65% to 75%) and the number of cases by 82% (IQR 71% to 88%) compared to uncontrolled epidemics. CATIs used late in epidemics, even after the peak, were estimated to avert relatively few cases but substantially reduced the number of epidemic days (e.g., by 28% [IQR 15% to 45%] for OCV in a 100-m radius). While this study is based on a rigorous, data-driven approach, the relatively high uncertainty about the ways in which POUWT and antibiotic interventions reduce cholera risk, as well as the heterogeneity in outbreak dynamics from place to place, limits the precision and generalizability of our quantitative estimates. CONCLUSIONS:In this study, we found that CATIs using OCV, antibiotics, and water treatment interventions at an appropriate radius around cases could be an effective and efficient way to fight cholera epidemics. They can provide a complementary and efficient approach to mass intervention campaigns and may prove particularly useful during the initial phase of an outbreak, when there are few cases and few available resources, or in order to shorten the often protracted tails of cholera epidemics.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Cholera remains an important public health problem in major cities in Bangladesh, especially in slum areas. In response to growing interest among local policymakers to control this disease, this study estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of preventive cholera vaccination over a ten-year period in a high-risk slum population in Dhaka to inform decisions about the use of oral cholera vaccines as a key tool in reducing cholera risk in such populations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Assuming use of a two-dose killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccine to be produced locally, the number of cholera cases and deaths averted was estimated for three target group options (1-4 year olds, 1-14 year olds, and all persons 1+), using cholera incidence data from Dhaka, estimates of vaccination coverage rates from the literature, and a dynamic model of cholera transmission based on data from Matlab, which incorporates herd effects. Local estimates of vaccination costs minus savings in treatment costs, were used to obtain incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for one- and ten-dose vial sizes. Vaccinating 1-14 year olds every three years, combined with annual routine vaccination of children, would be the most cost-effective strategy, reducing incidence in this population by 45% (assuming 10% annual migration), and costing was $823 (2015 USD) for single dose vials and $591 (2015 USD) for ten-dose vials per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. Vaccinating all ages one year and above would reduce incidence by >90%, but would be 50% less cost-effective ($894-1,234/DALY averted). Limiting vaccination to 1-4 year olds would be the least cost-effective strategy (preventing only 7% of cases and costing $1,276-$1,731/DALY averted), due to the limited herd effects of vaccinating this small population and the lower vaccine efficacy in this age group. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:Providing cholera vaccine to slum populations in Dhaka through periodic vaccination campaigns would significantly reduce cholera incidence and inequities, and be especially cost-effective if all 1-14 year olds are targeted.

Project description:Infectious diseases may be particularly critical for the conservation of endangered species. A striking example is the recurrent outbreaks that have been occurring in seabirds on Amsterdam Island for the past 30 years, threatening populations of three Endangered seabird species and of the endemic, Critically Endangered Amsterdam albatross Diomedea amsterdamensis. The bacteria Pasteurella multocida (avian cholera causative agent), and to a lesser extent Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae (erysipelas causative agent), were both suspected to be responsible for these epidemics. Despite this critical situation, demographic trends were not available for these threatened populations, and the occurrence and characterization of potential causative agents of epizootics remain poorly known. The aims of the current study were to (i) provide an update of population trends for four threatened seabird species monitored on Amsterdam Island, (ii) assess the occurrence of P. multocida, and E. rhusiopathiae in live birds from five species, (iii) search for other infectious agents in these samples and, (iv) isolate and genotype the causative agent(s) of epizooties from dead birds. Our study shows that the demographic situation has worsened substantially in three seabird species during the past decade, with extremely low reproductive success and declining populations for Indian yellow-nosed albatrosses Thalassarche carteri, sooty albatrosses Phoebetria fusca, and northern rockhopper penguins Eudyptes moseleyi. Pasteurella multocida or E. rhusiopathiae were detected by PCR in live birds of all five investigated species, while results were negative for eight additional infectious agents. A single strain of P. multocida was repeatedly cultured from dead birds, while no E. rhusiopathiae could be isolated. These results highlight the significance of P. multocida in this particular eco-epidemiological system as the main agent responsible for epizootics. The study stresses the urgent need to implement mitigation measures to alter the course of avian cholera outbreaks threatening the persistence of seabird populations on Amsterdam Island.

Dataset Information

PREDICTIVE MODELING OF CHOLERA OUTBREAKS IN BANGLADESH.

Publications

PREDICTIVE MODELING OF CHOLERA OUTBREAKS IN BANGLADESH.

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