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Diagnosis trajectories of prior multi-morbidity predict sepsis mortality.

ABSTRACT: Sepsis affects millions of people every year, many of whom will die. In contrast to current survival prediction models for sepsis patients that primarily are based on data from within-admission clinical measurements (e.g. vital parameters and blood values), we aim for using the full disease history to predict sepsis mortality. We benefit from data in electronic medical records covering all hospital encounters in Denmark from 1996 to 2014. This data set included 6.6 million patients of whom almost 120,000 were diagnosed with the ICD-10 code: A41 'Other sepsis'. Interestingly, patients following recurrent trajectories of time-ordered co-morbidities had significantly increased sepsis mortality compared to those who did not follow a trajectory. We identified trajectories which significantly altered sepsis mortality, and found three major starting points in a combined temporal sepsis network: Alcohol abuse, Diabetes and Cardio-vascular diagnoses. Many cancers also increased sepsis mortality. Using the trajectory based stratification model we explain contradictory reports in relation to diabetes that recently have appeared in the literature. Finally, we compared the predictive power using 18.5 years of disease history to scoring based on within-admission clinical measurements emphasizing the value of long term data in novel patient scores that combine the two types of data.

SUBMITTER: Beck MK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5095673 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Diagnosis trajectories of prior multi-morbidity predict sepsis mortality.

Beck Mette K MK Jensen Anders Boeck AB Nielsen Annelaura Bach AB Perner Anders A Moseley Pope L PL Brunak Søren S

Scientific reports 20161104

Sepsis affects millions of people every year, many of whom will die. In contrast to current survival prediction models for sepsis patients that primarily are based on data from within-admission clinical measurements (e.g. vital parameters and blood values), we aim for using the full disease history to predict sepsis mortality. We benefit from data in electronic medical records covering all hospital encounters in Denmark from 1996 to 2014. This data set included 6.6 million patients of whom almos ...[more]

PMID: 27812043

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Project description:BackgroundAn emerging body of research suggests that noncentral nervous system cancer may negatively impact the brain apart from effects of cancer treatment. However, studies assessing cognitive function in newly diagnosed cancer patients cannot exclude selection bias and psychological effects of cancer diagnosis. To overcome these limitations, we investigated trajectories of cognitive function of patients before cancer diagnosis.MethodsBetween 1989 and 2013, a total of 2059 participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study were diagnosed with noncentral nervous system cancer. Cognitive assessments were performed every 3 to 5 years using a neuropsychological battery. The general cognitive factor was composed of individual cognitive tests to assess global cognition. Using linear mixed models, we compared change in cognitive function of cancer case patients before diagnosis with cognitive change of age-matched cancer-free control subjects (1:2). In addition, we performed sensitivity analyses by discarding assessments of control subjects 5 years before the end of follow-up to exclude effects from potential undiagnosed cancer. All statistical tests were two-sided.ResultsThe Word Learning Test immediate recall declined faster among case patients than among control subjects (-0.05, 95% confidence interval = -0.09 to -0.01 vs 0.01, 95% confidence interval = -0.01 to 0.03; P for difference = .003). However, this difference was not statistically significant in sensitivity analyses. Furthermore, no statistically significant differences were observed in change of other individual cognitive tests and of the general cognitive factor.ConclusionsIn this study, we evaluated cognitive function in a large group of cancer patients prior to diagnosis, thereby excluding the psychological impact of cancer diagnosis and biased patient selection. In contrast to previous studies shortly after cancer diagnosis, we found no difference in change of cognitive function between cancer patients and control subjects.

Project description:BackgroundOur knowledge of how to better manage elevated blood pressure (BP) in the presence of comorbidities is limited, in part due to exclusion or underrepresentation of patients with multiple chronic conditions from major clinical trials. We aimed to investigate the burden and types of comorbidities in patients with hypertension and to assess how such comorbidities and other variables affect BP levels over time.Methods and findingsIn this multiple landmark cohort study, we used linked electronic health records from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) to compare systolic blood pressure (SBP) levels in 295,487 patients (51% women) aged 61.5 (SD = 13.1) years with first recorded diagnosis of hypertension between 2000 and 2014, by type and numbers of major comorbidities, from at least 5 years before and up to 10 years after hypertension diagnosis. Time-updated multivariable linear regression analyses showed that the presence of more comorbidities was associated with lower SBP during follow-up. In hypertensive patients without comorbidities, mean SBP at diagnosis and at 10 years were 162.3 mm Hg (95% confidence interval [CI] 162.0 to 162.6) and 140.5 mm Hg (95% CI 140.4 to 140.6), respectively; in hypertensive patients with ≥5 comorbidities, these were 157.3 mm Hg (95% CI 156.9 to 157.6) and 136.8 mm Hg (95% 136.4 to 137.3), respectively. This inverse association between numbers of comorbidities and SBP was not specific to particular types of comorbidities, although associations were stronger in those with preexisting cardiovascular disease. Retrospective analysis of recorded SBP showed that the difference in mean SBP 5 years before diagnosis between those without and with ≥5 comorbidities was -9 mm Hg (95% CI -9.7 to -8.3), suggesting that mean recorded SBP already differed according to the presence of comorbidity before baseline. Within 1 year after the diagnosis, SBP substantially declined, but subsequent SBP changes across comorbidity status were modest, with no evidence of a more rapid decline in those with more or specific types of comorbidities. We identified factors, such as prescriptions of antihypertensive drugs and frequency of healthcare visits, that can explain SBP differences according to numbers or types of comorbidities, but these factors only partly explained the recorded SBP differences. Nevertheless, some limitations have to be considered including the possibility that diagnosis of some conditions may not have been recorded, varying degrees of missing data inherent in analytical datasets extracted from routine health records, and greater measurement errors in clinical measurements taken in routine practices than those taken in well-controlled clinical study settings.ConclusionsBP levels at which patients were diagnosed with hypertension varied substantially according to the presence of comorbidities and were lowest in patients with multi-morbidity. Our findings suggest that this early selection bias of hypertension diagnosis at different BP levels was a key determinant of long-term differences in BP by comorbidity status. The lack of a more rapid decline in SBP in those with multi-morbidity provides some reassurance for BP treatment in these high-risk individuals.

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Diagnosis trajectories of prior multi-morbidity predict sepsis mortality.

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Diagnosis trajectories of prior multi-morbidity predict sepsis mortality.

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