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A practical Bayesian design to identify the maximum tolerated dose contour for drug combination trials.

ABSTRACT: Drug combination therapy has become the mainstream approach to cancer treatment. One fundamental feature that makes combination trials different from single-agent trials is the existence of the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) contour, that is, multiple MTDs. As a result, unlike single-agent phase I trials, which aim to find a single MTD, it is often of interest to find the MTD contour for combination trials. We propose a new dose-finding design, the waterfall design, to find the MTD contour for drug combination trials. Taking the divide-and-conquer strategy, the waterfall design divides the task of finding the MTD contour into a sequence of one-dimensional dose-finding processes, known as subtrials. The subtrials are conducted sequentially in a certain order, such that the results of each subtrial will be used to inform the design of subsequent subtrials. Such information borrowing allows the waterfall design to explore the two-dimensional dose space efficiently using a limited sample size and decreases the chance of overdosing and underdosing patients. To accommodate the consideration that doses on the MTD contour may have very different efficacy or synergistic effects because of drug-drug interaction, we further extend our approach to a phase I/II design with the goal of finding the MTD with the highest efficacy. Simulation studies show that the waterfall design is safer and has higher probability of identifying the true MTD contour than some existing designs. The R package "BOIN" to implement the waterfall design is freely available from CRAN. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

SUBMITTER: Zhang L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5096994 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A practical Bayesian design to identify the maximum tolerated dose contour for drug combination trials.

Zhang Liangcai L Yuan Ying Y

Statistics in medicine 20160831 27

Drug combination therapy has become the mainstream approach to cancer treatment. One fundamental feature that makes combination trials different from single-agent trials is the existence of the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) contour, that is, multiple MTDs. As a result, unlike single-agent phase I trials, which aim to find a single MTD, it is often of interest to find the MTD contour for combination trials. We propose a new dose-finding design, the waterfall design, to find the MTD contour for dru ...[more]

PMID: 27580928

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Project description:Background. Absent adaptive, individualized dose-finding in early-phase oncology trials, subsequent 'confirmatory' Phase III trials risk suboptimal dosing, with resulting loss of statistical power and reduced probability of technical success for the investigational therapy. While progress has been made toward explicitly adaptive dose-finding and quantitative modeling of dose-response relationships, most such work continues to be organized around a concept of 'the' maximum tolerated dose (MTD). The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate concretely how the aim of early-phase trials might be conceived, not as 'dose-finding', but as dose titration algorithm (DTA)-finding. Methods. A Phase I dosing study is simulated, for a notional cytotoxic chemotherapy drug, with neutropenia constituting the critical dose-limiting toxicity. The drug's population pharmacokinetics and myelosuppression dynamics are simulated using published parameter estimates for docetaxel. The amenability of this model to linearization is explored empirically. The properties of a simple DTA targeting neutrophil nadir of 500 cells/mm 3 using a Newton-Raphson heuristic are explored through simulation in 25 simulated study subjects. Results. Individual-level myelosuppression dynamics in the simulation model approximately linearize under simple transformations of neutrophil concentration and drug dose. The simulated dose titration exhibits largely satisfactory convergence, with great variance in individualized optimal dosing. Some titration courses exhibit overshooting. Conclusions. The large inter-individual variability in simulated optimal dosing underscores the need to replace 'the' MTD with an individualized concept of MTD i . To illustrate this principle, the simplest possible DTA capable of realizing such a concept is demonstrated. Qualitative phenomena observed in this demonstration support discussion of the notion of tuning such algorithms. Although here illustrated specifically in relation to cytotoxic chemotherapy, the DTAT principle appears similarly applicable to Phase I studies of cancer immunotherapy and molecularly targeted agents.

Project description:BackgroundTargeted agents, such as antiangiogenic drugs (e.g., bevacizumab) and poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitors (e.g., rucaparib), have been shown to improve outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed or recurrent ovarian cancer. Evidence suggests that combinations of these two classes of targeted agents may result in synergistic antitumor activity.ObjectiveThe phase I portion of MITO 25 was designed to determine the maximum tolerated dose, pharmacokinetics, and the safety profile of rucaparib when administered in combination with bevacizumab as maintenance treatment for patients with high-grade epithelial ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal cancer.MethodsThis was a single-arm, phase I dose-escalation study. Cohorts of three patients were recruited to receive increasing rucaparib doses of 400 mg, 500 mg, or 600 mg twice daily for 28 days. Bevacizumab 15 mg/kg was administered at day 1 every 21 days.ResultsWe enrolled nine patients. Two patients in the rucaparib 600-mg group had four grade 3 treatment-emergent adverse events: increased in alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase levels, depression, and hallucinations. These were deemed to be dose-limiting toxicities related to rucaparib. Because these dose-limiting toxicities occurred in the 600-mg group and affected more than one in three patients, the maximum tolerated dose for rucaparib was considered 500 mg twice daily when combined with bevacizumab 15 mg/kg at day 1 every 21 days. There were no new safety concerns from using the combination. No substantial difference in pharmacokinetic parameters was found between the cohorts or in the pharmacokinetic profiles of rucaparib administered alone or with bevacizumab with respect to historical controls.ConclusionsThe maximum tolerated dose of rucaparib is 500 mg twice daily when co-administered with bevacizumab. The plasma concentration-time profiles of rucaparib in combination with bevacizumab suggest no pharmacokinetic interactions between the drugs. The randomized phase II portion of MITO 25 will further investigate rucaparib maintenance treatment with or without bevacizumab in patients with newly diagnosed stage III-IV ovarian cancer who responded to carboplatin-paclitaxel chemotherapy with or without bevacizumab.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT03462212; registered March 2018.

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A practical Bayesian design to identify the maximum tolerated dose contour for drug combination trials.

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A practical Bayesian design to identify the maximum tolerated dose contour for drug combination trials.

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