The CHA2DS2-VASc score as a predictor of high mortality in hospitalized heart failure patients.
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ABSTRACT: Aims
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in patients with heart failure (HF). CHA2DS2-VASc score was originally employed as a risk assessment tool for stroke in patients with AF; however, it has recently been used to predict not only stroke but also various cardiovascular diseases beyond the original AF field. We aimed to verify the CHA2DS2-VASc score as a risk assessment tool to predict mortality in patients with HF.Methods and results
Consecutive 1011 patients admitted for treatment of HF were divided into three groups based on their CHA2DS2-VASc scores: score 1-3 group (n = 317), score 4-6 group (n = 549) and score 7-9 group (n = 145). Of the 1011 HF patients, 387 (38.3%) had AF. We compared patient characteristics among the three groups and prospectively followed for all-cause mortality. Although left ventricular ejection fraction was similar among all three groups, all-cause mortality was higher in the score 4-6 group and score 7-9 group than in the score 1-3 group (37.9 and 29.3% vs. 15.1%, log-rank P < 0.001). In the multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis, the CHA2DS2-VASc score 7-9 was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (all HF patients: hazard ratio (HR) 1.822, P = 0.011; HF patients with AF: HR 1.951, P = 0.031; HF patients without AF: HR 2.215, P = 0.033).Conclusions
The CHA2DS2-VASc score was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in HF patients with or without AF. This comprehensive risk assessment score may help identify HF patients who are at high risk for mortality in HF patient.
SUBMITTER: Yoshihisa A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5107970 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:AimsIn atrial fibrillation, stroke risk is assessed by the CHA2 DS2 -VASc score. Heart failure is included in CHA2 DS2 -VASc, but the rationale is uncertain. Our objective was to test if heart failure is a risk factor for stroke, independent of other risk factors in CHA2 DS2 -VASc.Methods and resultsWe studied 300 839 patients with atrial fibrillation in the Swedish Patient Register 2005-11. Three definitions of heart failure were used in order to assess the robustness of the results. In the main analysis, heart failure was defined by a hospital discharge diagnosis of heart failure as first or second diagnosis and a filled prescription of a diuretic within 3 months before index + 30 days. The second definition counted first or second discharge diagnoses <1 year before index + 30 days and the third definition any heart failure diagnosis in open or hospital care before index + 30 days. Associations with outcomes were assessed with multivariable Cox analyses. Patients with heart failure were older (80.5 vs. 74.0 years, P < 0.001) and had higher CHA2 DS2 -VASc score (4.4 vs. 2.7, P < 0.001). The 1 year incidence of ischaemic stroke without warfarin was 4.4% with heart failure and 3.1% without. Adjustment for the cofactors in CHA2 DS2 -VASc eradicated the difference in stroke risk between patients with and without heart failure (hazard ratio 1.01 with 95% confidence interval 0.96-1.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for CHA2 DS2 -VASc was not improved by points for heart failure.ConclusionsA clinical diagnosis of heart failure was not an independent risk factor for stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation, which may have implications for anticoagulation management.
| S-EPMC5933948 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsComorbidities are highly prevalent in patients with heart failure (HF) and affect clinical outcome. The CHA2 DS2 -VASc score is a validated score to estimate assessment of thromboembolic risk in patients with atrial fibrillation.Methods and resultsWe evaluated the predictive value of this score on clinical outcome in patients with HF. All patients with a diagnosis of chronic HF at a health maintenance organization were evaluated for the CHA2 DS2 -VASc score. Patients were followed for cardiac related hospitalizations and death. The cohort included 7106 HF patients. Mean follow-up was 744 days; the median CHA2 DS2 -VASc score was 5.0 (range 4.0-6.0). The CHA2 DS2 -VASc score was a significant predictor of survival and predictive of the combined end point of death and cardiovascular hospitalization. Survival rates were reduced with increasing quintiles of the CHA2 DS2 -VASc score: 93.6 ± 0.7% vs. 83.0 ± 1.1% vs. 75.7 ± 1.0% vs. 73.0 ± 1.2% vs. 63.3 ± 1.2%, respectively P < 0.001. After adjustment for other significant predictors, increasing CHA2 DS2 -VASc scores were independently predictive of survival and of the combined end point of death and cardiovascular hospitalization by Cox regression analysis. Analysing the CHA2 DS2 -VASc score as a continuous parameter by cox regression analysis demonstrated a significant increase with each point increase in the CHA2 DS2 -VASc score (hazard ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.17-1.26, P < 0.0001). Cox regression analysis using restricted cubic splines demonstrated an independent continuous increase in mortality with increasing CHA2 DS2 -VASc score (P < 0.0001 adjusted linear model). The predictive value was present in HF with reduced as well as preserved ejection fraction.ConclusionsThe CHA2 DS2 -VASc score has a significant impact on outcome in HF patients.
| S-EPMC7524134 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe CHA2DS2-VASc score is used to assess risk of mortality as well as to stratify risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). This study evaluated whether CHA2DS2-VASc score was predictive of 1 and 2 year risks of stroke and death in Asian patients with heart failure (HF).MethodsPatients hospitalized for HF were enrolled in the Korean Acute Heart Failure (KorAHF) registry, a prospective observational multicenter cohort study, between March 2011 and February 2014. Patients with a history of cancer before hospitalization for HF were excluded. The discriminatory properties of the CHA2DS2-VASc score were quantified using C-statistics.ResultsThe study included 5158 patients with HF, 2091 with and 3067 without AF. Rates of stroke in these two groups were 4.5 and 2.8%, respectively, after 1 year, and 5.5 and 3.4%, respectively, after 2 years. Each 1-point increase in CHA2DS2-VASc score was associated with significantly increased risks of stroke and all-cause death in HF patients with and without AF (p-value < 0.05). The C-statistics of the CHA2DS2-VASc score for all-cause death in patients with and without AF were 0.600 and 0.630, respectively, at 1 year and 0.626 and 0.635, respectively, at 2 years. The C-statistics for stroke ranged from 0.593 to 0.639.ConclusionsAmong patients with incident HF with and without AF, CHA2DS2-VASc score was significantly associated with the risks of stroke and death. However, CHA2DS2-VASc score was only a modest predictor of stroke and death, indicating the need for studies evaluating modified CHA2DS2-VASc scores. The majority of strokes occurred relatively shortly after hospitalization for HF and that mortality rates in patients with HF remain high. Thus, early treatment after HF to prevent stroke is essential.
| S-EPMC6688312 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundChronic kidney disease (CKD) patients have a high prevalence of coronary artery disease and a high risk of cardiovascular events. The present study assessed the value of the CHA2DS2-VASc score for predicting mortality among hospitalized acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients with CKD.MethodsThis was a retrospective cohort study that included CKD patients who were hospitalized for ACS from January 2015 to May 2020. The CHA2DS2-VASc score for each eligible patient was determined. Patients were stratified into two groups according to CHA2DS2-VASc score: <6 (low) and ≥6 (high). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality.ResultsA total of 313 eligible patients were included in the study, with a mean CHA2DS2-VASC score of 4.55 ± 1.68. A total of 220 and 93 patients were assigned to the low and high CHA2DS2-VASc score groups, respectively. The most common reason for hospitalization was unstable angina (39.3%), followed by non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (35.8%) and ST-elevation myocardial infarction (24.9%). A total of 67.7% of the patients (212/313) received coronary reperfusion therapy during hospitalization. The median follow-up time was 23.0 months (interquartile range: 12-38 months). A total of 94 patients (30.0%) died during follow-up. The high score group had a higher mortality rate than the low score group (46.2 vs. 23.2%, respectively; p < 0.001). The cumulative incidence of all-cause death was higher in the high score group than in the low score group (Log-rank test, p < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that CHA2DS2-VASc scores were positively associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 2.02, 95% confidence interval: 1.26-3.27, p < 0.001).ConclusionThe CHA2DS2-VASc score is an independent predictive factor for all-cause mortality in CKD patients who are hospitalized with ACS. This simple and practical scoring system may be useful for the early identification of patients with a high risk of death.
| S-EPMC8965867 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsThe aim of this study was to determine whether the CHA2 DS2 -VASc score can predict adverse outcomes such as death, ischaemic stroke, and major haemorrhage, in patients with systolic heart failure in sinus rhythm.Methods and resultsCHA2 DS2 -VASc scores were calculated for 1101 patients randomized to warfarin and 1123 patients randomized to aspirin. Adverse outcomes were defined as death or ischaemic stroke, death alone, ischaemic stroke alone, and major haemorrhage. Using proportional hazards models, we found that each 1-point increase in the CHA2 DS2 -VASc score was associated with increased hazard of death or ischaemic stroke events [hazard ratio (HR) for the warfarin arm = 1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-1.30, P < 0.001; for aspirin, HR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.11-1.29, P < 0.001]. Similar increased hazards for higher CHA2 DS2 -VASc scores were observed for death alone, ischaemic stroke alone, and major haemorrhage. Overall performance of the CHA2 DS2 -VASc score was assessed using c-statistics for full models containing the risk score, treatment assignment, and score-treatment interaction, with the c-statistics for the full models ranging from 0.57 for death to 0.68 for major haemorrhage.ConclusionsThe CHA2 DS2 -VASc score predicted adverse outcomes in patients with systolic heart failure in sinus rhythm, with modest prediction accuracy.
| S-EPMC5053869 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo determine if the CHA2DS2-VASc score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes mellitus, stroke or transient ischemic attack, vascular disease, age 65-74 years, sex category) predicts thromboembolism and death in patients without atrial fibrillation in a population with implantable cardiac monitoring devices.Patients and methodsA retrospective review utilizing the Rochester Epidemiology Project research infrastructure was conducted to evaluate the CHA2DS2-VASc tool as a predictor of mortality and ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, or systemic embolism in patients without atrial fibrillation. An implantable device was required in the inclusion criteria to discern the absence of atrial fibrillation. The study period was January 1, 2004, through March 7, 2016.ResultsThe study population (N=1606) had a mean (SD) age of 69.8 (12.6) years and median follow-up of 4.8 years (range, 0-12 years; quartile 1, 2.6 years and quartile 3, 8.1 years). The number of thromboembolic and mortality events stratified by CHA2DS2-VASc score groupings of 0 to 2 (399 patients), 3 to 5 (756 patients), and 6 to 9 (451 patients) were 12 (3.0%), 109 (14.4%), and 123 (27.3%) and 22 (5.5%), 205 (27.1%), and 214 (47.4%), respectively. The CHA2DS2-VASc score predicted thromboembolism and death. The hazard ratios (HRs) for thromboembolic events for CHA2DS2-VASc scores 3 to 5 and 6 to 9 were 4.84 (95% CI, 2.66-8.80) and 10.53 (95% CI, 5.77-19.21) (reference group, scores 0-2). The HRs for death for the corresponding score categories were 4.45 (95% CI, 2.86-6.91) and 8.18 (95% CI, 5.23-12.78). The CHA2DS2-VASc score also predicted development of atrial fibrillation, for which the HRs for scores 3 to 5 and 6 to 9 were 1.51 (95% CI, 1.13-2.00) and 2.17 (95% CI, 1.60-2.95).ConclusionThe CHA2DS2-VASc tool predicts thromboembolic events and overall mortality in patients without atrial fibrillation who have implantable devices.
| S-EPMC5641434 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Ischemic stroke following coronary revascularization procedures remains one of the most potentially devastating complications. CHA2DS2-VASc score has been widely used for stroke risk stratification in AF patients. The aim of this nationwide study was to examine the association between the CHA2DS2-VASc score and ischemic stroke following coronary revascularization procedures. We identified patients undergoing coronary revascularization procedures, coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), using the electronic Hospitalization Summary Reports. Logistic regression models were applied to evaluate the association of CHA2DS2-VASc score with the risk of post-procedural ischemic stroke. We identified 54,714 patients undergoing CABG and 263,063 patients undergoing PCI from 2013 to 2015. The CHA2DS2-VASc score had a positive graded association with the risk of post-procedural ischemic stroke in both CABG and PCI (P for trend <0.001). The adjusted risk of post-procedural ischemic stroke increased by an estimated 122.4% (odds ratio [OR], 2.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.11-2.35) and 34.7% (OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.31-1.39) for each additional 1 point in the CHA2DS2-VASc score in CABG and PCI, respectively. In conclusion, these findings suggested that CHA2DS2-VASc score was an independent predictor of the development of post-procedural ischemic stroke in patients undergoing CABG and PCI.
| S-EPMC5595984 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and Purpose- Despite modest predictive ability for ischemic stroke (IS), the CHA2DS2-VASc score is widely used for stroke prediction in atrial fibrillation. Among patients with atrial fibrillation, we aimed to (1) compare the IS or transient ischemic attack (TIA) incidence by CHA2DS2-VASc in blacks and Hispanics versus whites; (2) compare predictive ability of CHA2DS2-VASc score for IS or TIA in blacks and Hispanics versus whites; and (3) determine improvement in predictive ability of CHA2DS2-VASc score from addition of race/ethnicity. Methods- Using data from Optum Clinformatics, a large administrative claims database, we analyzed patients with atrial fibrillation enrolled in commercial and Medicare Advantage health plans from 2009 to 2015. We computed IS or TIA incidence rates, improvement in C statistic, continuous and categorical net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement from addition of race/ethnicity to CHA2DS2-VASc. Results- A total of 267 419 patients (mean age, 73.1 [SD, 12.3] years; 46.6% women; 84.2% white, 8.5% black, 7.3% Hispanic) were studied. After a mean follow-up of 22 months, there were 6202 IS or TIA events. IS or TIA incidence rates were higher in blacks than Hispanics or whites (1.65, 1.40, and 1.22 cases per 100 person-years, respectively) and increased with higher CHA2DS2-VASc, with no race/ethnicity-based differences (P for interaction=0.17). The CHA2DS2-VASc and CHA2DS2-VASc+race/ethnicity C statistic (95% CI) were 0.679 (0.670-0.686) and 0.679 (0.671-0.688). The CHA2DS2-VASc C statistic in the 3 groups were comparable. With addition of race/ethnicity, the categorical net reclassification improvement, continuous net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement were -0.045 (95% CI, -0.067 to -0.025), 0.045 (95% CI, 0.025-0.068), and 0.016 (95% CI, 0.014-0.018). Conclusions- The predictive ability of CHA2DS2-VASc for IS or TIA in atrial fibrillation is comparable among whites, blacks, and Hispanics; hence, it can be used in the latter 2 groups. Addition of race/ethnicity to the CHA2DS2-VASc does not improve its predictive ability.
| S-EPMC6541553 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn people with atrial fibrillation (AF), periods of sinus rhythm present an opportunity to detect prothrombotic atrial remodeling through measurement of P-wave indices (PWIs)-prolonged P-wave duration, abnormal P-wave axis, advanced interatrial block, and abnormal P-wave terminal force in lead V1. We hypothesized that the addition of PWIs to the CHA2DS2-VASc score would improve its ability to predict AF-related ischemic stroke.MethodsWe included 2229 participants from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) and 700 participants from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) with incident AF who were not on anticoagulants within 1 year of AF diagnosis. PWIs were obtained from study visit ECGs before development of AF. AF was ascertained using study visit ECGs and hospital records. Ischemic stroke cases were based on physician adjudication of hospital records. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs of PWIs for ischemic stroke. Improvement in 1-year stroke prediction was assessed by C-statistic, categorical net reclassification improvement, and relative integrated discrimination improvement.ResultsAbnormal P-wave axis was the only PWI associated with increased ischemic stroke risk (hazard ratio, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.33-2.55) independent of CHA2DS2-VASc variables, and that resulted in meaningful improvement in stroke prediction. The β estimate was approximately twice that of the CHA2DS2-VASc variables, and thus abnormal P-wave axis was assigned 2 points to create the P2-CHA2DS2-VASc score. This improved the C-statistic (95% CI) from 0.60 (0.51-0.69) to 0.67 (0.60-0.75) in ARIC and 0.68 (0.52-0.84) to 0.75 (0.60-0.91) in MESA (validation cohort). In ARIC and MESA, the categorical net reclassification improvements (95% CI) were 0.25 (0.13-0.39) and 0.51 (0.18-0.86), respectively, and the relative integrated discrimination improvement (95% CI) were 1.19 (0.96-1.44) and 0.82 (0.36-1.39), respectively.ConclusionsAbnormal P-wave axis-an ECG correlate of left atrial abnormality- improves ischemic stroke prediction in AF. Compared with CHA2DS2-VASc, the P2-CHA2DS2-VASc is a better prediction tool for AF-related ischemic stroke.
| S-EPMC6481672 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) significantly increases the risk of ischemic stroke depending on various risk factors. The CHA2DS2-VASc score is used widely to improve stratification of AF-related stroke to identify for whom anticoagulation could be safely withheld. As upstream therapy, the management of lifestyle for AF and related stroke prevention has been ongoing for past decades.Case presentationA 56-year-old male was taken to our hospital because of acute ischemic stroke. Without intracranial vascular malformation and angiostenosis, two small emboli were successfully taken out from the left middle cerebral artery by mechanical thrombectomy. During the hospitalisation, no apparent abnormalities were found in various laboratory tests, echocardiogram or the coronary computed tomography angiography. However, asymptomatic paroxysmal AF was first diagnosed and was presumed to be responsible for his stroke. Noticeable, he was always in good fitness benefiting from the formed good habits of no smoking and drinking. With a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0, he had no history of any known diseases or risk factors associated with AF and related stroke. Instead of lacking exercise, he persisted in playing table tennis faithfully 3-4 times a week and 2-3 h each time over the past 30?years, and, in fact, has won several amateur table tennis championships.ConclusionIn view of the possible pathophysiological mechanisms resulting from the long-term vigorous endurance exercise, it may be a potential risk factor for developing AF and even for subsequent stroke. Not merely should strengthen the screening for AF in specific individuals as sports enthusiasts, but the necessity of oral anticoagulant for those with a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 might deserve the further investigation.
| S-EPMC6660687 | biostudies-literature